Saturday, October 31, 2020

Weather or not 

When the Oakland/Los Angeles/Oakland again/Las Vegas Raiders meet up with the Browns in Cleveland Sunday afternoon, they will be treated to typical Cleveland weather at this time of the year.

The forecast calls for falling temperatures (into the upper 30s) during the game because -- wait for it -- there is a 90% chance of rain. All day. Not exactly what you'd call ideal football weather. Should be a fun afternoon.

It'll be interesting to see how these evenly-matched teams handle the elements. Both are well equipped to beat you on the ground, as well as through the air when there are no impediments. They are mirror images of each other on both sides of the football.

The 5-2 Browns, who amazingly have been outscored by 21 points, have also scored 30 or more points in their victories. The 3-3 Raiders, who play a tougher schedule, have knocked off 4-2 New Orleans and Super Bowl champion Kansas City (6-1) this season. They have also lost to 5-2 Buffalo and 5-2 Tampa Bay.

Both teams can roll up  points on offense, the Browns especially against losing teams. The Raiders can do so no matter the opponent. Now when defense enters the picture, there is only one word that adequately describes that side of the ball for both clubs.

Embarrassingly awful. OK, I cheated. But I am not incorrect.

The Raiders, who have a well-balanced offense with quarterback Derek Carr, several reliable receivers and a terrific young running back in Josh Jacobs, rarely stop themselves on offense. Their defense, on the other hand, can't stop the opposition, surrendering nearly 33 points a game. The Browns have permitted a meager 31.5 per by comparison.

The Browns row in that same boat. They rarely turn the ball over, except when Baker Mayfield is throwing to Odell Beckham Jr. (and that won't happen against until next season) and their running game is still one of the best in the National Football League.

And yes, their defense is worse than the Raiders' with one notable exception. Browns quarterback disturber and all-around nice guy Myles Garrett not only leads the NFL in sacks, his nine are half of the team total and two more than the Raiders have recorded all season.

So why is the Cleveland secondary picked on so much? Two reasons. First of all, the run defense for  a change has played well this season. Second, that group, which sees more than 40 passes a game on average, has given up 288 yards a game. So why not throw, anyway?

Same can be said of the Browns, considering the Raiders' secondary has given up 284 yards a game. Head coach/playcaller Kevin Stefanski is more inclined to maintain a balanced attack, but that porous secondary and lack of a pass rush might persuade him to cut Baker Mayfield loose again a second straight week.

You can also just about count on Carr, who has completed 72% of his throws this season good for 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions, to most likely go up top and add to the Browns' secondary misery unless the Raiders' ground game experiences success early. 

Jacobs is definitely motivated. The second-year back is coming off his worst game as a pro with just 17 yards in 10 carries last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game the Raiders' defense held close until a fourth-quarter blowout by the Bucs.

The Raiders also received good news a couple of days ago when All-Pro offensive tackle Trent Brown was removed from the COVID-19 injury list -- he tested positive during the bye week -- and will rejoin a very good offensive line. 

The Browns, adjusting to life without Beckham, welcomed wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge back off the injured list, giving Mayfield five wideouts to target in addition to his three tight ends and running back Kareem Hunt.

The way these two teams score and subsequently belch points -- mirror images on both sides of the football, remember -- indicates another shootout by the Lakefront is thisclose to being inevitable. And it very well might come down to which team handles the weather better.

Games played in elements like the ones expected Sunday usually favor the offense. They know which way plays are going. The defense, the reaction side of the ball, can only guess and hope the call is correct. It also figures to be sloppy with the possibility of several turnovers.

Hard one to figure out. The Browns are no doubt happy to be back home after playing three of the last four games on the road, where they went 3-1, and looking forward to three straight at home. The Raiders are 2-1 away from home. Winning in Kansas City is a factor.

Without the elements, I like the Raiders. But if the meteorologists are correct and the rain and thermometer fall on Sunday, it's hard to pick against the home team. So . . . with fingers crossed and umbrella ready, this one belongs to the Browns, possibly in overtime. Make it:

Browns 24, Raiders 21

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