Saturday, October 3, 2020

Is 3-1 in the offing?

When the Browns and Cowboys get together for a football game Sunday in Dallas, statistics strongly suggest a high scoring game.

Both teams enter the game with offenses that pile up points at a fan-pleasing rate but from an entirely different manner. One team loves the throw the football; the other relies on the ground game. It will be an interesting contrast of offensive philosophies against defenses that upchuck points at a dizzying rate.

The Cowboys, believed to be one of the National Football League's power teams at the beginning of the season, have won just one of their first three games and baffled their verbose and very public owner to the point of utter frustration.

While the Dallas offense has no problem moving the football, an incredible 1,092 yards and 77 points in the last two games, the defense has kept pace in a backward sort of way, allowing 77 points and tidal waves of yardage while the offense averages 491 yards a game overall.

The Browns have played just well enough in their last brace of games, keeping their heads just above water  to go 2-1 against two teams that, well, that are among the low hanging fruit of the NFL. But for the Browns, it represents a gigantic step in the right direction.

When the schedule came out at the beginning of the season, I marked down this one immediately with an L. Then they started playing games and the L now has a question mark beside it. Why? The Dallas defense.

That side of the football resembles the ones Browns fans have endured for the better part of a generation. It has all kinds of problems stopping the run. And that's what the Browns do best. 

Passing is a different matter and it should favor the Browns. Yes Baker Mayfield has been much more of a game manager this season than swashbuckling quarterback, but the Cowboys allow 277 yards a game through the air and have picked off only one pass.

So will head coach/playcaller Kevin Stefanski loosen the bridle he has fastened to Mayfield's right arm the last two games and let him freewheel against a Dallas secondary that hasn't stopped anybody this season? In a word, probably not. Yeah, I know.

If the Browns jump on top early -- a big if considering how quickly the Cowboys offense ignites -- and the defense surprises in the early stages, look for Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and the offensive attempt to recreate their successes in the last two games.

But then there is the Cleveland defense, which will be tested by arguably the league's best offense, at least statistically. And it's that offense that has Cowboys owner Jerry Jones beside himself with frustration.

Quatrterbnack Dak Prescott has racked up otherworldly stats in his three starts, especially the last two during which he has thrown for 922 yards. Most quarterbacks need at least three games to hit a figure like that.

He has thrown 143 passes overall -- Mayfield has thrown just 83 in that period -- as the Cowboys under new head coach Mike McCarthy throw nearly 75% of the time, a highly unusual imbalance. Perhaps it's because Ezekiel Elliott is averaging a career-low 73 yards a game on the ground

The offense averages 28 first downs a game and converts 42% of the time on third down. They are as close to lethal as you can get in the NFL. Except for one stat. With all those impressive numbers, Prescott has thrown for only five touchdowns this season. He has scored three with his legs.

Wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb have grabbed 41 passes, but have yet to visit the end zone. Even Elliott has more touchdown receptions (1). 

And yet with all those wonderful stats, the Cowboys have just the one time. And that one was tainted. It came was gift-wrapped when the Atlanta Falcons failed to simply fall on an onside kick in the final minute in week two.

The paucity of passing touchdowns seems to bother Jones more than a defense that would have turned around at least one of those losses if it learned how to get off the field with more frequency. It has averaged a whopping 34 minutes a game on the field.

So the Browns face what seems like an unstoppable offense and a defense that surrenders yards and points every bit as fast as the offense scores them. This one could easily become another shootout in a season that has thus far featured nothing but,

With cornerbacks Greedy Williams (definitely out) and Denzel Ward (iffy with a groin) watching from the sidelines and big question marks at safety, Prescott figures to have a another sensational afternoon unless the Cleveland pass rush shows up.

According to Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, the outcome of this one will be a determining factor in where the next 12 games will lead. "We have to see where we are and who we are," he told the media a few days go, "This will be a real test for us. . . . We have to go out there and prove we are a solid a team well (as the Cowboys) and can bang and battle with anybody in the NFL."

It has been nearly two decades since the Browns sported a 3-1 record after four games, It was back in 2001 in Butch Davis' first season, which saw the Browns finish 7-9. They never got there, falling to Cincinnati in the fourth game.

The same fate awaits them Sunday. The Cleveland defense, especially the injury-racked secondary, fails to stop Prescott, who will satisfy his owner and find the end zone four times with his arm and legs, while the defense awaken to pick off Mayfield twice and create four turnovers.

After careful consideration, I have removed the question mark next to the L. The outcome of this one, much as it did following the season-opening beatdown in Baltimore, will give Mayfield critics another reason to doubt whether he is truly the Browns' franchise quarterback. Make it:

Cowboys 38, Browns 17

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