Saturday, October 24, 2020

Deja vu

The last time the Browns were in this situation, they responded resoundingly with an offense that went on to win the next four games starting with the Cincinnati Bengals.

They had just been embarrassed in the season opener by the Baltimore Ravens. Thoughts of "here we go again" rumbled throughout Browns Nation. Different head coach, same result. 

Here we are again at almost the same exact spot. Humiliating loss last Sunday in Pittsburgh and another date with the Bengals, this time down in Cincinnati Sunday. What was it Yogi Berra said about the feeling one gets for already having experienced something?

Yep. Terrible loss to a division opponent followed by a game against the Bengals. Just a coincidence of the schedule? Wonder if the result of the initial experience falls right into place here. 

Remember that 35-30 Browns Thursday night victory over the Bengals in week two? The one that triggered the four-game winning streak and the first 4-1 start  for the woebegone franchise since 1994. Put another way, it's their only 4-1 start to a season since reentering the National Football League in 1999.

It emotionally lifted Browns Nation's spirits to where the "here we go again" thoughts dissipated, but did not disappear. They were jarred by the Steelers last Sunday. But now the panacea has arrived: The Bengals, who have overwhelmed one opponent, underwhelmed four and whelmed one.

The Browns know that role. They used to be the rest stop on most teams' schedules. They were the magic potion that helped right all the wrongs those teams had experienced until CLEVELAND popped up on the schedule.

This is in no way suggesting the Browns will begin another four-game winning streak, although with Las Vegas, Houston and Philadelphia dead ahead, that possibility should not be totally discounted. But let's  slow this down and concentrate on Sunday's meeting first.

If it's anything like the first slugfest, defensive football will take Sunday off. These two teams produced nearly 800 yards of offense in the first meeting. Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrow dropped back to throw an insane 64 times and threw three touchdown passes, which represents half of his season total.  

The Browns scored their 35 points on 58 plays. The Bengals needed 88 snaps for their 30. And now that Bengals running back Joe Mixon (foot) has been ruled out, count on Burrow to throw even more against a Cleveland secondary just a few rungs away from being categorized as awful.

Burrow has three excellent receivers at his disposal in Tyler Boyd, rookie Tee Higgins and A. J. Green. The latter, who has bedeviled the Browns in the past, was targeted 13 times in the first game and caught just three balls for 29 yards. That won't happen again. 

The Cleveland pass rush promises to be near exhaustion somewhere in the third quarter. It very well could be a war of attrition up front as the less-than-mediocre Cincy offensive line attempts to keep Burrow vertical. The Browns sacked Burrow, who has been dropped 24 times already, thrice in the first game and hit him on eight other occasions.

The Cleveland offensive line, meanwhile, kept quarterback Baker Mayfield perfectly clean. He was neither sacked nor touched, His running game, led by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, produced 215 yards and three touchdowns. He also connected on scoring tosses to Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr.

Chubb, of course, won't be ready until just after the bye week, which kind of levels the playing field somewhat with Mixon's absence. Hunt, however, offers a better chance on the ground than Giovani Bernard of the Bengals. 

Mayfield, who has thrown four interceptions in the last two games, needs a big day to restore his confidence. The Bengals just might be that magic elixir he requires to reduce to less than a murmur all the talk that his game is deteriorating.

If you like good old-fashioned defensive football, tune in some other NFL game because you're not going to get it here. For those of you who enjoy the entertainment and accompanying agony of a scoring bonanza, grab some popcorn and buckle up.

Unlike the Browns, whose goal on offense in every game is to distribute the play selection equally between the run and pass, the Bengals' offense revolves around Burrow, whose 65% accuracy has allowed them to stay competitive.

The Browns, on the other hand, have displayed the ability of being almost but not quite totally ineffective against opposing offenses, hemorrhaging 31.2 points a game. It is a pace that, if maintained, will see them upchuck a club-record 499 points for the season. The Bengals surrender 26 per.

I must admit seriously considering picking the Bengals in this one. I think Burrow is the better quarterback. I think their back seven is better than Cleveland's. And I don't think the Browns' offensive line will completely shut down the Cincy pass rush this time.

But something -- more of a hunch than anything -- tells me the Browns, much as they did in the first meeting, will prevail behind a strong ground game with Mayfield somehow figuring out how to get the job done. The Browns will continue beating the teams they should beat. Make it:

Browns 35, Bengals 30

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