Head over heart

For the second straight game, the Browns face a team laden with impressive statistics away from the not-so-friendly confines of home.

This time, it’s the San Francisco 49ers on national television (for a third time this season) Monday night. That’s the undefeated San Francisco 49ers.

A brief timeout for a little history.

These two teams used to be great rivals back in old All-America Football Conference, which sent the Browns, 49ers and Baltimore Colts to the National Football League in 1950 when the league folded after four seasons.

The Browns, under coach Paul Brown, compiled a 47-4-3 regular-season record in those seasons and capped each with the championship. The 49ers accounted for half of those losses., including a 56-28 pasting in 1949. The Browns avenged that with a 21-7 victory in the final title game.

These teams have met only 19 times in the NFL since 1950, the Browns holding a 12-7 margin, including a 5-5 record in San Francisco. The last time they met was in  2015 with the Browns, behind Johnny Manziel and Isaiah Crowell, winning, 24-10, in Cleveland.

Back to the present.

The 2019 Niners, who boast strengths on both sides of the football, are coming off a bye week after knocking off three teams that boast a combined record of 3-12 and one team owns two of those victories.

The Browns, who will get a crack at finally winning a home game next Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks, have played their best football on the road with victories in New Jersey against the New York Jets and Baltimore.

Last Sunday’s walloping of the Ravens was the beginning of a four-games-in-five-games-grind spread over six weeks with only the Seahawks’ visit and a bye

interrupting it.

The unexpected victory and surprising size of the Baltimore final score (40-25) propelled Browns Nation into fits of giddiness with the fallout leaving a good portion of the constituency feeling more than just hopeful against the 49ers.

It’s more like the Cleveland Browns Express, predicted by more than just a few on the NFL landscape to finally become a dominant team, has left the station after a slow start and is on its way.

And while the Browns were extremely impressive against the Ravens, two factors should at least slow down those who believe the Express will have little trouble against the Niners.

Travelling on the road is difficult to begin with. But when the journey covers nearly 2,500 miles and has a three-hour time difference, it’s almost impossible to determine how the body will react rhythmically to the new surroundings in a short period of time.

It’s possible the extra day between games will balance out that possible negative.   But then factor in the notion San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan, who also runs the offense, has had an extra week to choreograph a game.

Giving someone like the creative Shanahan an extra week to prepare his team on offense, especially since it is playing so well to begin with, will pose more than a few problems for Cleveland defensive coordinator Steve Wilks.

There is one absolute to Shanahan’s offense: The 49ers are a run-first football team. They are a throwback to the old run-game-sets-up-the-passing-game days of the NFL, which became a pass-happy league several years ago.

They run the football 57% of the time, which could possibly mean Wilks might shy away on early downs from the 4-2-5 look he has favored this season and bring in an extra linebacker to help shut down the run. Run support from the still-bruised secondary is essential if the Browns hope to force the Niners to throw the ball.

Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert do most of the heavy lifting behind an offensive line missing left tackle Joe Staley (broken leg) and are the big reasons the offense averages 175 yards a game infantry style. But neither has reached the end zone.

Jeff Wilson Jr., who has touched the football just 18 times this season oddly owns all four San Francisco touchdowns on the ground.

But when the Niners throw the football, which seems to be only when they absolutely need to, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo completes 69% of this throws. But he has a tendency to be careless.

The offense committed five turnovers against Pittsburgh two weeks ago, four by Garoppolo, who threw a pair of interceptions and fumbled away the ball on two other occasions. He has thrown four picks in addition to five TD passes.

The quarterback, who owns an overall 11-2 mark as a starter, also has a tendency to favor throwing between the hash marks. That’s where Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff found most of his success in the victory over the Browns earlier. 

Garoppolo loves to throw to tight end George Kittle, who had a breakout season in 2018 with 88 receptions, 1,377 yards and five touchdowns. He checks in this season with 17 catches for 165 yards. And with the Browns still trying to figure out how to cover tight ends, he should see the football plenty.

Other favorites include wide receivers Deebo Samuel, a rookie who has 11 grabs for 147 yards and one score, Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis.

If the Cleveland defense, which has 14 sacks, wants to put decent pressure on Garoppolo, it will have to do so quickly. The Rams have allowed just two sacks this season.

The weakness the Browns hope to exploit resides at left tackle, where rookie Justin Skule takes over for Staley and draws Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, who has six of those sacks, as his first assignment. Garrett should be snorting angry after being shut out last Sunday.

It will be interesting to see whether the Cleveland offense, which put up more than 500 yards against Baltimore, can come close against a 49ers defense that allows only 15 first downs and 283 total yards a game on average, while sacking opposing quarterbacks nine times.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield will be working with a full complement of wide receivers for the first time this season. Antonio Callaway is back from his four-game suspension and Rashard Higgins returns after missing three games with a knee problem.

Mayfield can expect to see a lot of pressure from the San Francisco defensive line, which boasts four No. 1 draft picks. The unit has accounted for all nine sacks. And they’re getting a healthy Nick Bosa back for this one.

The former Ohio State standout, slowed by an ankle sprain, has been declared healthy for the first time this season. In his limited time, he has one sack, but 17 quarterback pressures and half a dozen hurries.

Throw in veteran Dee Ford, a pass rush specialist who plays sparingly because of knee tendinitis, Arik Armstead and tackles DeForest Buckner and D. J. Jones and the mediocre Cleveland offensive line faces another stiff challenge.

Where the Cleveland offense should find success, if the offensive line can neutralize the 49ers pass rush, is through the air, where opposing team have found the most success.

With Mayfield now operating with four healthy receivers, it will be interesting to see how often San Francisco utilizes nickel and dime packages, which theoretically should open up the Cleveland run game.

Nine-year veteran cornerback Richard Sherman heads up the secondary. It will be interesting to see whom he is matched against. It is entirely possible Odell Beckham Jr. will be personally escorted around an opposing defensive backfield for the second straight week.

The Niners’ secondary will also be without cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (foot). Look for Mayfield to pick on backup Emmanuel Moseley.

On paper, this looks very much like last week’s game. The statistics say the 49ers should remain unbeaten. The stats last week said the Ravens should prevail. On the road last week; on the road this week. The head says 49ers; the heart says Browns. The head was wrong last week. It will not be wrong Monday night. Make it:

49ers 27, Browns 13