Do you honestly sense an upset?
By all rights, the Browns’ journey to Foxboro Sunday to play
the New England Patriots, the unbeaten
New England Patriots, shouldn’t result in much of a game.
The disappointing Browns are struggling along at 2-4 and had
a week off to lick their wounds courtesy of the bye. The Patriots are humming
along, knocking off team after team after team as they waltz toward another
Super Bowl.
The statistics this team is putting up along the way are
startling, brightly providing intimidating evidence why they are undefeated.
The Browns are merely the next team on the schedule.
With one exception, the New England offense routinely puts
up at least 30 points a game. And just as routinely, the stingy defense has not
permitted any opponent to score more than 14 points and that was only once.
The numbers are staggering on both sides of the football.
The Pats have outscored their opponents by an incredible 175 points. The
defense has allowed three touchdowns, just one touchdown pass, and scored
three. Special teams have contributed the cause, too, with a pair of touchdowns
and a blocked punt.
The defense, masterminded this season by head coach Bill
Belichick, has racked up 26 sacks and taken the ball away 22 times, including a
whopping 18 interceptions, matching the cub’s output in the entire 2018
campaign.
It is truly team oriented with nine players sharing the 26
sacks and six sharing the 18 picks. Make a mistake against them and you can
almost count on six points going up the scoreboard.
They boast the best back eight in the NFL in very active
linebackers Kyle Van Noy, Dont’a Hightower, Elandon Roberts and ex-Brown Jamie
Collins, and a thieving secondary comprised of Stephon Gilmore, Patrick Chung
and identical twins Jason and Devin McCourty.
Opponents have converted a puny 14.3% of their third-down
opportunities, completed just 51% of their passes and piled up only 12½ first
downs a game. This defense has given the word “dominate” a whole new meaning.
And that’s just one side of the football. The other side is not
quite as intimidating but impressive nevertheless – it’s sneaky good – in its
relentless ability to move the chains, resulting in hoarding the ball for
nearly 35 minutes a game.
Quarterback Tom Brady, the Methuselah of the National
Football League at 42, is cruising along at his usual 66% accuracy rate, leading
an offense that averages more than three TDs a game.
They don’t overwhelm like some of the other NFL offenses
that strike suddenly. Rarely will
you see the Patriots stretch the field in an effort to put points on the board.
They prefer to chip away and take advantage of opponents’ mistakes.
When you get past the peerless Brady, though, there isn’t
much that impresses on offense. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is retired and wide
receiver Julian
Edelman has been battling injuries all season.
They average 377 yards a game (the Browns not that far
behind at 351). The offensive line is in a state of flux, especially at left
tackle, just like the Browns, but it somehow seems to be working, having
allowed only 11 sacks this season.
The three-headed monster at running back – Sony Michel,
James White and Rex Burkhead – keeps defenses honest. All three factor into the
passing game, too. Outside of Edelman, though, the wide receivers corps is so
mediocre, the Pats had to trade for Atlanta veteran Mohamed Sanu this week
after dropping Josh Gordon.
No matter who plays, Brady always seems to uncannily find a
way to make the Patriots offense work.
Now throw in the enormous success Belichick has had against
quarterbacks in either their rookie or sophomore NFL seasons and you have a
firm grasp on one of the many reasons he is so successful and headed for the
Pro Football Hall of Fame.
He has won 20 straight games and 34 of the last 39 against
quarterbacks who fall under that category since taking over as the Pats head
coach. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, an NFL sophomore, will attempt to
become the sixth outlier.
At least he’ll have a full complement of receivers with the
return of Rashard Higgins and Antonio Callaway losing more rust since his
return from a four-game suspension as they buttress Jarvis Landry and Odell
Beckham Jr.
Here’s another little tidbit worth digesting: The Patriots
are 41-0 at home in the regular season against AFC opponents in the 11 seasons
Brady and Julian Edelman play together. And they will play Sunday.
The Browns came the closest to spoiling that mark in
December 2013, dropping a 27-26 verdict, the only one-point Patriots victory in
the streak.
The Browns are probably at their healthiest since the
opening game of the season. Cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams are
back, which could mean defensive coordinator Steve Wilks might haul out the
more traditional 4-3 look on early downs instead of adding a nickel back.
And then there’s Belichick, the psychologist, in full bloom
with his praise for the Browns in his conference call with the Cleveland media
earlier this week, an exercise he no doubt would rather not do.
The former Browns coach said this year’s team has “a lot of
explosive players to worry about. They make a lot of big plays and cause a lot
of problems. Coach Kitchens is a very aggressive coach offensively.”
He didn’t stop there. “They have great runners, receivers,
quarterback, experienced (not good, experienced) offensive line,” he said.
“Defensively, they do as good a job turning the ball over (no they don’t; they
have only eight turnovers this season). Creating negative plays and long
yardage, three-and-outs.
“And special teams, they have two good returners (no they
don’t), good coverage players, big kicker, punter. . . . . A solid team. It
will be big challenge for us Sunday. They play competitively. They do a lot of
things well. They cause a lot of problems.”
So why are they 2-4 with a pair of blowout losses? If they are so solid and competitive
with no apparent weaknesses, could it be one of the unmentioned weaknesses is
the new head coach?
As for advantages, at least in Belichick’s eyes, the Browns
have it with two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye, and his team
playing in a short week (the Pats drilled the New York Jets last Monday). Advantage Cleveland, no? No.
For the record, the Browns are 7-11 coming off a bye since
2001 – 3-4 at home, 4-7 on the road. One of those home victories was against
the Patriots in 2010, Peyton Hillis rumbling for 184 yards and two touchdowns
in a 34-14 walloping in Eric Mangini’s final season as head coach.
Belichick, now in his 20th season with the Patriots,
is practically unbeatable at home. They are 127-28 in Foxboro since he took
over in 2000, a winning percentage of .819. He has crafted a litany of excellence there.
The new Browns have lost all four games in Foxboro since
1999. One more stat: The Patriots lug a 16-game home winning streak into this
one.
The good folks at CBS Television have deemed the game worthy
enough to be shown to a good portion of the nation and assigned its top team of
Jim Nantz and Tony Romo to share their thoughts and insights with the fans.
Nantz and Romo, you’ll recall, also handled the Browns’
season opener at home against Tennessee. Remember the 43-13 blowout by the
Titans? Look for a similar result Sunday with four more turnovers, including
two more picks by Mayfield. Make it:
Patriots 31 Browns 10
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