Saturday, October 26, 2019


Do you honestly sense an upset?

By all rights, the Browns’ journey to Foxboro Sunday to play the New England Patriots, the unbeaten New England Patriots, shouldn’t result in much of a game.

The disappointing Browns are struggling along at 2-4 and had a week off to lick their wounds courtesy of the bye. The Patriots are humming along, knocking off team after team after team as they waltz toward another Super Bowl.

The statistics this team is putting up along the way are startling, brightly providing intimidating evidence why they are undefeated. The Browns are merely the next team on the schedule.

With one exception, the New England offense routinely puts up at least 30 points a game. And just as routinely, the stingy defense has not permitted any opponent to score more than 14 points and that was only once.

The numbers are staggering on both sides of the football. The Pats have outscored their opponents by an incredible 175 points. The defense has allowed three touchdowns, just one touchdown pass, and scored three. Special teams have contributed the cause, too, with a pair of touchdowns and a blocked punt.

The defense, masterminded this season by head coach Bill Belichick, has racked up 26 sacks and taken the ball away 22 times, including a whopping 18 interceptions, matching the cub’s output in the entire 2018 campaign.

It is truly team oriented with nine players sharing the 26 sacks and six sharing the 18 picks. Make a mistake against them and you can almost count on six points going up the scoreboard.

They boast the best back eight in the NFL in very active linebackers Kyle Van Noy, Dont’a Hightower, Elandon Roberts and ex-Brown Jamie Collins, and a thieving secondary comprised of Stephon Gilmore, Patrick Chung and identical twins Jason and Devin McCourty.

Opponents have converted a puny 14.3% of their third-down opportunities, completed just 51% of their passes and piled up only 12½ first downs a game. This defense has given the word “dominate” a whole new meaning.

And that’s just one side of the football. The other side is not quite as intimidating but impressive nevertheless – it’s sneaky good – in its relentless ability to move the chains, resulting in hoarding the ball for nearly 35 minutes a game.

Quarterback Tom Brady, the Methuselah of the National Football League at 42, is cruising along at his usual 66% accuracy rate, leading an offense that averages more than three TDs a game.

They don’t overwhelm like some of the other NFL offenses that strike suddenly.  Rarely will you see the Patriots stretch the field in an effort to put points on the board. They prefer to chip away and take advantage of opponents’ mistakes.

When you get past the peerless Brady, though, there isn’t much that impresses on offense. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is retired and wide receiver Julian
Edelman has been battling injuries all season.

They average 377 yards a game (the Browns not that far behind at 351). The offensive line is in a state of flux, especially at left tackle, just like the Browns, but it somehow seems to be working, having allowed only 11 sacks this season.

The three-headed monster at running back – Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead – keeps defenses honest. All three factor into the passing game, too. Outside of Edelman, though, the wide receivers corps is so mediocre, the Pats had to trade for Atlanta veteran Mohamed Sanu this week after dropping Josh Gordon.

No matter who plays, Brady always seems to uncannily find a way to make the Patriots offense work.

Now throw in the enormous success Belichick has had against quarterbacks in either their rookie or sophomore NFL seasons and you have a firm grasp on one of the many reasons he is so successful and headed for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

He has won 20 straight games and 34 of the last 39 against quarterbacks who fall under that category since taking over as the Pats head coach. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, an NFL sophomore, will attempt to become the sixth outlier.

At least he’ll have a full complement of receivers with the return of Rashard Higgins and Antonio Callaway losing more rust since his return from a four-game suspension as they buttress Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr.

Here’s another little tidbit worth digesting: The Patriots are 41-0 at home in the regular season against AFC opponents in the 11 seasons Brady and Julian Edelman play together. And they will play Sunday.

The Browns came the closest to spoiling that mark in December 2013, dropping a 27-26 verdict, the only one-point Patriots victory in the streak.

The Browns are probably at their healthiest since the opening game of the season. Cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams are back, which could mean defensive coordinator Steve Wilks might haul out the more traditional 4-3 look on early downs instead of adding a nickel back.

And then there’s Belichick, the psychologist, in full bloom with his praise for the Browns in his conference call with the Cleveland media earlier this week, an exercise he no doubt would rather not do.

The former Browns coach said this year’s team has “a lot of explosive players to worry about. They make a lot of big plays and cause a lot of problems. Coach Kitchens is a very aggressive coach offensively.”

He didn’t stop there. “They have great runners, receivers, quarterback, experienced (not good, experienced) offensive line,” he said. “Defensively, they do as good a job turning the ball over (no they don’t; they have only eight turnovers this season). Creating negative plays and long yardage, three-and-outs.

“And special teams, they have two good returners (no they don’t), good coverage players, big kicker, punter. . . . . A solid team. It will be big challenge for us Sunday. They play competitively. They do a lot of things well. They cause a lot of problems.”

So why are they 2-4 with a pair of blowout losses?  If they are so solid and competitive with no apparent weaknesses, could it be one of the unmentioned weaknesses is the new head coach?

As for advantages, at least in Belichick’s eyes, the Browns have it with two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye, and his team playing in a short week (the Pats drilled the New York Jets last Monday).  Advantage Cleveland, no? No.

For the record, the Browns are 7-11 coming off a bye since 2001 – 3-4 at home, 4-7 on the road. One of those home victories was against the Patriots in 2010, Peyton Hillis rumbling for 184 yards and two touchdowns in a 34-14 walloping in Eric Mangini’s final season as head coach.

Belichick, now in his 20th season with the Patriots, is practically unbeatable at home. They are 127-28 in Foxboro since he took over in 2000, a winning percentage of .819.  He has crafted a litany of excellence there.

The new Browns have lost all four games in Foxboro since 1999. One more stat: The Patriots lug a 16-game home winning streak into this one.

The good folks at CBS Television have deemed the game worthy enough to be shown to a good portion of the nation and assigned its top team of Jim Nantz and Tony Romo to share their thoughts and insights with the fans.

Nantz and Romo, you’ll recall, also handled the Browns’ season opener at home against Tennessee. Remember the 43-13 blowout by the Titans? Look for a similar result Sunday with four more turnovers, including two more picks by Mayfield. Make it:

Patriots 31 Browns 10

No comments:

Post a Comment