Can good defense stymie good offense?
A quick perusal of the statistics the Baltimore Ravens
supply the media on a weekly basis renders one very important observation about
the team the Browns meet Sunday.
The Cleveland defense, which has played relatively well
since the season-opening loss to Tennessee, will be severely challenged because
the Ravens have one hellacious offense.
While the Browns got all the hype during this offseason, the
Ravens surreptitiously moved into the scoring realm of the Kansas City Chiefs
and New England Patriots.
Known much more for their defense over the years, that has
changed dramatically with the arrival and swift maturation of quarterback Lamar
Jackson, who entered the National Football League last season known more for his
running than his ability to throw a football accurately.
The Browns, who were supposed to have that kind of explosive
offense, have staggered and stumbled out of the starting gate. They look
nothing like the team that stunned the NFL the second half last season.
The Ravens, meanwhile, do not have the usual intimidating
defense, surrendering 20 points a game. No need to be concerned, though,
because the offense picks them up big time with nearly 37 points a game. It is so good, Sam Koch has punted only seven times in three games.
The Browns got a rather unsavory taste of what awaits Sunday
in the final regular-season game last season when Jackson accounted for 269
yards from scrimmage – the Cleveland defense had no clue how to stop the rookie
– en route to clinching the AFC North title with a 26-24 victory.
This season’s Cleveland defense is significantly different
with a rebuilt line, a different philosophy with new coordinator Steve Wilks
and a secondary, when healthy, that features the kind of pass defenders who can
shut down opposing wide receivers.
Problem is that secondary is still not completely healthy,
having played the Los Angeles Rams game last Sunday night with all four starters on the
sideline. Right now, subject to change, free safety Damarious Randall is the
lone returnee.
The Baltimore offense presents problems due mainly to the
philosophy of coordinator Greg Roman, who has magically turned Jackson into a
63% passer after a college career that saw him never crack 60%.
The John Carroll University graduate loves to run the
football, too, to the point where the Ravens run the ball exactly 50% of the
time, which makes defending against that offense, particularly the slippery Jackson,
that much more difficult.
The Ravens also picked up Mark Ingram, the bowling ball
running back who was forced to share running duties in New Orleans with Alvin
Kamara, and turned him into what amounts to a full-time back. He has replied
with five touchdowns and a six-yard-per-carry average.
Combine that with the running of Jackson – he says he hates
to run – and backup Gus Edwards and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Wilks, who
has used a 4-2-5 alignment most of the season, switch to a basic 4-3 front,
adding a strongside linebacker to help against the run on certain downs.
The conundrum is how to defend Jackson, his newly found
accuracy now a concern. Stack the box, dare him to throw – he averages 288
yards a game through the air – and risk getting trampled by his talented feet?
Or respect his arm and get burned by a ground attack that averages 217 yards a
game?
Jackson, who has yet to throw an interception this season,
lists as his favorite targets a pair of Oklahoma University standouts, both of
whom played with Baker Mayfield – tight end Mark Andrews for the short stuff
and rookie speedster Marquise Brown for the deep stuff. Each owns a pair of
touchdowns.
The Ravens’ defense lost linebacker C. J. Mosley and free
safety Eric Weddle, their top two tacklers last season, and sack artists
Terrell Suggs and Za’Darius Smith to free agency during the offseason. Earl
Thomas III moved east after nine seasons in Seattle to replace Weddle.
The Ravens are not nearly as menacing as in the past and much
more vulnerable through the air than on the ground, giving up 291 yards a game.
The club’s first three opponents ran the ball only 48 times.
The porous secondary will be without veteran Jimmy Smith,
probably their best cover corner, out with a knee, and possibly Marlon
Humphrey, the other corner, questionable with a bad hip.
It will be interesting to see whether Freddie Kitchens takes
advantage and turns Mayfield and his huffing and puffing passing offense loose
or plays it closer to the vest and incorporates Nick Chubb and the ground game
more into the game plan.
He said the club has had a good week of practice. Of course
he did. Said it for three straight weeks and the Browns have only a 1-2 record
to show for it.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh, meanwhile, is no doubt licking
his chops awaiting the arrival of the Browns. Now in his 12th season with the
Ravens, the older brother of University of Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is 19-3 against them,
10-1 at home.
Since splitting the first four games of this series, the
Browns have won only twice (both in overtime) in the last 18 seasons in
Baltimore, the last in 2015 when Travis Coons floated a 32-yard wounded duck between
the uprights to win, 33-30. That was the game quarterback Josh McCown set the
club record with 457 passing yards.
This is one game where statistics are generally meaningless,
the natural rivalry taking center stage, although some fans would argue it
hasn’t been much of a rivalry over the years.
But one cannot dismiss the gaudy numbers the Ravens’ offense
has produced. But, some would suggest, they have been compiled against weaker defensive
teams than the Browns. All of which conjures up the notion that a good
defensive team will more often than not knock off a good offensive team.
So are the Browns ripe for an upset? Is this the game where
they snap out of their offensive funk? No, not this time, At least not in
Baltimore. Maybe in the penultimate game of the season in late December back in
Cleveland. Make it:
Ravens 31, Browns 17
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