Reasoning a prediction

Looking for reasons to pick the Browns over the Los Angeles Rams Sunday night at home.

Conventional wisdom says the Rams, three-point favorites to remain unbeaten, are clearly the better football team.

They in a short period of time have become one of the elite teams in the National Football League under coach Sean McVay. The Browns are mere pretenders at this point.

The heart, of course, tugs and hopes the Browns will somehow, some way yank an upset out of their bag of tricks. The head, however, says otherwise. Therein lies the conundrum.

As the search continues, certain factors pop into mind with regard to the Rams, whose roots date back to their birth in 1937 in, of all places, Cleveland, Ohio.

After eight seasons by the lakefront, the last of which ended in an NFL championship and right before the Browns came into existence, they moved to Los Angeles in 1946 and remained until 1995, transplanting to St. Louis for 21 seasons before heading back to L.A. in 2016.

But I digress. Back to Sunday night and the prediction.

Among the many reasons the Rams should be the pick is an array of skilled talent on offense that ranks among the best in the NFL. Quarterback Jared Goff, after a slow start to his career as a rookie, has become one of the league’s most dangerous passers under McVay.

Speaking of passing, isn’t the Cleveland starting secondary in critical (hyperbolically speaking) shape physically? All four starters on the injury report? Yep. More on that later.

Goff, a former No. 1 overall draft choice, loves to play on the road, where he is 14-3 with eight consecutive victories against the AFC. How do you pick against that?

It’s also difficult to pick against a wide receivers corps like Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp even when the Browns are at full strength. Woods and Cooks combined for 166 receptions, 2,423 yards and 11 scores last season. Kupp is fully recovered from ACL surgery last season and looking good this season.

And it’s crazy to suggest the Browns can neutralize brilliant running back Todd Gurley II. But doesn’t Gurley have an arthritic left knee? Yeah, but the right one works just fine and hasn’t stopped him from putting up insane numbers like 3,924 yards from scrimmage and 40 touchdowns the last two seasons.

Overall, he has generated nearly 6,600 yards and 57 touchdowns from scrimmage in four-plus seasons. He just turned 25 and shows few signs of slowing down. The Browns have had, almost historically, trouble taking big runners out of games.

With weapons like that and the innovative McVay calling the shots, is it any wonder most pundits see the Rams returning to the Super Bowl this season with revenge ion their minds?

The hunt for reasons continues.

If there is anywhere the Browns maybe have an edge, it’s in the trenches with their defensive line. Myles Garrett, Sheldon Richardson, Olivier Vernon and Larry Ogunjobi, oftentimes force opponents into numerous third-down situations.

The opposition has converted only four times in 24 opportunities. But that was against Tennessee and the New York Jets, teams that are nowhere as tough on offense as the Rams, who are 14-of-30 on third down.

The Browns have also not faced a good offensive line. The Rams have one. It will be worth watching Garrett and his five sacks up against 37-year-old Andrew Whitworth, one of the best pass-blocking offensive tackles in the NFL.

Starting to lean more toward the Rams here.

And then there’s the Rams’ defense, which can beat you in many different ways.

If it isn’t Aaron Donald doing things a defensive tackle isn’t supposed to, it’s Clay Matthews III and Dante Fowler Jr. making life miserable for offensive tackles on passing downs or a veteran secondary featuring veteran cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib and wizened free safety Eric Weddle.

The latter group has picked off 38 passes in the last two-plus seasons, Weddle, playing for Baltimore the last couple of seasons, has pilfered four passes against Cleveland.

Running the Rams’ show on that side of the ball is Wade Phillips, one of the most wily and innovative defensive coordinators in the league. Arguably the best. His schemes routinely flummox young quarterbacks.

More stats time: McVay is 8-0 against the AFC, averaging nearly 35 points a game. The Rams’ secondary has allowed only one pass more than 21 yards this season. The Browns have recorded nine. Advantage Browns.

One more in favor of the Browns: Baker Mayfield is 2-0 in home games against the NFC, throwing for more than 450 yards and four scores with no interceptions.

The key to this game revolves around the Browns’ biggest problem this season – the offense. That is where I begin to lose confidence because I have seen nothing that comes close to resembling the strong and imaginative attack that finished last season.

The Rams will score points. Count on it. If the Browns when healthy can’t stop the Tennessee Titans, who don’t scare anyone, how in the world are they going to stop the Rams? Question is whether they can keep up.

Correct answer: They can’t. Not with the four starting members of the secondary and a starting linebacker either out or questionable for the game with soft-tissue injuries. There is no way the battered Cleveland defense can hold up against the Rams. To do so, the offense will have to lose its limp.

The belief coming out of training camp was the Cleveland offense was strong enough to prevent a team from running away and hiding. Tennessee already blew u that notion in the season opener.

Running out of reasons to even consider the Browns winning this one. And it doesn’t get any better when comparing coaches. McVay has proven without a doubt he is one of the league’s best young (or old) head coaches. He is 26-8 with one Super Bowl appearance already. Freddie Kitchens is still getting his feet wet.

One last hope: The Rams in the last three-plus seasons since moving to Los Angeles are 9-7 while traveling to either the Eastern or Central time zones.

Upsets are extremely rare in the NFL. They take place when you least suspect them. Sunday night’s nationally televised game is one of those games. In order to win, though, the Browns need to play near perfect football in all aspects. The Rams don't.

Mayfield is due for a big game, providing Kitchens’ game plan for the offense features lots of tempo, short- to medium-range passes and zero defects. That includes getting the ball out quickly instead of holding on to it in an effort to make the big play.

OK, the reasoning search is over. Time for a prediction. So can it be done? Can the Browns shock the NFL universe with the first upset of the year? Of course they can. But will they? Uh, no. Couldn't find enough reasons. Make it:

Rams 38, Browns 17