Gonna be close

From the good news/bad news department . . . 

GOOD NEWS: The Browns' opponent Sunday at home is 2-6 this season, both victories against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. BAD NEWS: The weather forecast calls for rain throughout the game with winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Shades of the 16-6 loss to the Raiders two weeks ago under similar circumstances.

GOOD NEWS: Those conditions work against a team like the invading Houston Texans, who rely heavily on throwing the football. BAD NEWS: The Browns' defense is awful, at best, against the forward pass.

GOOD NEWS: The best weapon for an offense in this kind of weather is a strong running game, a phase of the game in which the Browns thrive. BETTER NEWS: Nick Chubb, who hasn't played since week four, is officially off injured reserve and ready to grind up opposing defenses. BEST NEWS: The Texans own the worst run defense in the National Football League.

Under ordinary circumstances, and there is nothing ordinary about Cleveland weather in the fall, this one figures to be another of those early-season entertaining offensive displays with the team that has the ball last winning with a final score somewhere in the 40-37 range.

The gloomy forecast suggests that is unlikely to happen Sunday, although it will be interesting to watch Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson battle the elements, which can be devastating roaring in off Lake Erie. Gale-force winds can make a thrown football doing strange things.

Derek Carr of the Raiders learned that early in their victory, keeping the trajectory of the football low enough where winds did not adversely affect its course. He was aided immensely by a strong running game that chewed up not only yardage, but time on the clock.

Watson does not have that luxury. He lost David Johnson, his lead running back, to a concussion and has to rely, almost solely, on Duke Johnson Jr., one of six ex-Browns on the Texans' roster. But he is not a lead running back. He's much more effective as a receiver out of the backfield.

Theoretically, the Cleveland run defense, which was gouged for 131 yards by Josh Jones in the Raiders loss, should rebound and do something they have failed to do with alarming regularity in the last two games: Get off the field. In other words, make the opposition punt.

That should work in this one this one -- again in theory -- since the Houston offense has owned the football for just shy of 27 minutes a game. It's an offense that tilts heavily toward the pass, which will keep the Cleveland secondary and pass rush busy.

Watson, who throws two-thirds of the time, completes 68% of his passes. He has a wealth of top-flight wide receivers in Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller V and Randall Cobb and tight end Darren Fells, another ex-Brown, who have combined to produce 14 touchdowns this season.

Defensively, the Texans are dreadful, just a few rungs worse than the Browns. In their xix losses, they have hemorrhaged 203 points, or nearly 34 a game. Only the Jaguars failed to score at least 30 points against them. 

Maybe that's the key. Score 30 against the Texans and your chances of winning increase exponentially. More of that coming up.

The Texans come into this one on the heels of a 27-25 victory over the Jaguars, giving interim head coach Romeo Crennel his first victory, They were coming off a bye week.

The Browns enter the game off their bye week in probably their best physical shape of the season, such as it can be after eight games. Joining Chubb off the injured list are right guard Wyatt Teller and tight end Austin Hooper. The only part missing from the opening-game lineup on offense is wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.

Speaking of the bye, it has not been kind to the Browns over the years. They are just 7-12 coming off the week off since 2001 -- they were bye-less in the first two seasons following the resurrection -- with a 3-4 record at home.

The last time they came off a week-eight bye for a home game was 2010, knocking off the New England Patriots, 34-14. They finished 5-11 that season, Eric Mangini's last as Cleveland head coach. But I digress.

Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt hinted fans will see a new and improved Baker Mayfield at quarterback. "Without giving anything away," he said, "you'll see different things schematically we've decided during the bye week that will be beneficial for us as an offense."

That might include more bootlegs and rollouts, the type of plays that bring out the best in Mayfield. He is less effective when in the pocket except when he delivers the football on time. Slight hesitation or indecision usually winds up as a negative play,

He'll be facing a Houston defense that incredibly has intercepted just two passes this season. But now that Chubb has returned, head coach/playcaller Kevin Stefanski can now confidently ramp up the ground game with Mayfield resuming his role as a game manager.

Originally, I believed this one was going to be another of those scoring bonanzas with the Browns emerging victorious. The dire weather forecast has changed my mind, as it did in the Raiders game where weather was the great dictator. 

Stefanski learned a painful lesson in that one. In Cleveland, severe weather is the great equalizer. He didn't have Chubb then. Now he does, along with Teller and Hooper, and that will be the difference. But it won't be easy as Watson figures out how to beat the elements. A field goal could be the decider, possibly in overtime. Make it: 

Browns 24, Texans 21