Browns 7-3? Perhaps

Let's see now. Sunday in downtown Cleveland. Any Sunday. November 2020. Football game. Weather conditions: Messy. Wet and messy.

Yep, the third Sunday game on the Browns' November schedule this Sunday will be pretty much like the first two. The games against the Oakland/Los Angeles/Oakland again/Las Vegas Raiders and Houston Texans each delivered a combination of rain, sleet, hale and wind. Lots of wind. Gale-like wind.

The latest Sunday adventure against the Philadelphia Eagles is more tame. The winds will seem like a gentle breeze by comparison. Quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Philadelphia's Carson Wentz should be able to throw the football without wondering what the wind will do with it once it leaves their hands.

Then there is the rain. The forecast for this one calls for temperatures in the upper 30s/lower 40s and 100% precipitation. No stopping. All day. It will affect the outcome.

Sunday weather in November has been so bad in Cleveland this year, even the bye week drew nasty weather. Head coach Kevin Stefanski probably wonders weather (yeah, it should be whether; wanted to see if you were paying attention) it's like this every Cleveland November.

Sloppy conditions and a slippery field should make it an interesting football game. The run game is at least one step slower as a result. The passing game favors the offense. Quarterbacks know where the ball should go. Receivers, especially those who run disciplined routes, should beat defensive backs.

Uniforms will get damp, which will make tackling that much more difficult, especially for the Browns, who have trouble bringing down the opposition in dry weather. The pass rush will be slowed by uncertain footing, giving the edge to offensive lines. 

The Eagles, struggling at 3-5-1 and yet atop the horrid NFC East, have an unusual relationship with the sack. They are third in the National Football League with 31 sacks, but their offensive line has more than balanced that scale by allowing 35 sacks of Wentz.

The Browns' pass rush will operate with one hand figuratively tied behind their backs, Defensive end Myles Garrett is sitting this one out with COVID-19. Defensive coordinator Joe Woods will be severely challenged from a creativity standpoint. Numerous blitz packages would not be surprising.

Garrett owns 9.5 of the Browns' 22 sacks (43%) and all of their four strip sacks. He is the Cleveland pass rush. His absence will be evident. The front line will need tackles Sheldon Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi to step up. The latter, in particular, has underperformed and underachieved this season,

Conversely, the Cleveland offensive line has surrendered only 12 sacks of Mayfield -- just one in the last three games -- this season. Keeping him clean (so to speak) against the Eagles will be one of Stefanski's primary goals. The other, of course, is a continuation of the strong ground game.

The reuniting of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and return of right guard Wyatt Teller to the lineup last week against Houston was the spark that enabled the Browns to overcome the difficult  meteorological conditions against the Texans. 

The 6-3 Browns, who own one of the easiest schedules from here on out, have played well against teams under .500, winning five of those games. Stefanski earlier this week resorted to coachspeak when assessing the Eagles.

"This is a real good football team coming to our building," he began. "We know the challenge they present on offense. . . . On defense, it is a really good unit. They really come after you with that front four. . . Special teams, it might be the fastest group we play all year. . . It is a really sound scheme on all sides. . . . We have our work cut out for us."

Why, then, are they 3-5-1? And 1-3 on the road? 

You can start with Wentz, who has fumbled nine times (and lost four) and his 12 touchdowns passes have been neutralized by his 12 interceptions; an offense that converts only 40% of its third-down opportunities; a defense that yields 133 yards a game on the ground and 211 through the air; a pass defense that has picked off only three passes; and a turnover ratio of -7.

That's why. Sacks are nice. Victories are better.

Because of the conditions, the team that wins the battles in the trenches will probably emerge on top. It won't be pretty. And like last Sunday, it could be close. And low scoring. The big winner very well could be the weather, which most likely will dictate strategic and tactical approaches throughout the game.

Sunday's game against the Eagles is pivotal for the Browns, who have lost just one home game (Raiders)  this season. That's because they play four of their next five games on the road, which categorizes this one as a must-win.

The last time the Browns entered game 11 with a 7-3 record was back in 1989 in Bud Carson's first year as head coach.with the original Browns. They finished 9-6-1 that season, losing to Denver in the conference championship game. 

An important fact to consider: The Cleveland offense has scored just 16 points in the last two games. That needs to change, says Captain Obvious. So look for Chubb and Hunt to continue taking turns battering the Philly defense and Mayfield to game-manage his offense in mistake-free fashion under difficult circumstances. Make it:

Browns 21, Eagles 16