Thinking about the draft

Thoughts coursing through my mind as we await Roger Goodell opening the 2020 National Football League college draft Thursday night from the commodious basement – he probably calls it something else – in his home in Bronxville, N.Y. . . .

In no particular order, let’s begin with mock drafts and rumors, both of which have consumed a major portion of the time and conversation leading up to the big event. 

Mocks are fun. They are malleable. They change, often times weekly, as rumors help sway where those conducting them believe these prized collegians will land in the opening round of the three-day, seven-round event. 

The initial round is the only one that really counts in terms of accuracy, or something that resembles accuracy. Everything beyond the first 32 selections is pure guesswork.

Fans of the lottery, especially those who take this stuff ultra, ultra seriously, rarely take into consideration that the 32 teams have 32 disparate drafting philosophies. So trying to figure out who is going to do what is often times futile. . . .

The Browns select 10^th in the opening round. New General Manager Andrew Berry has three options at his disposal when Goodell puts him on the clock for his first draft as the boss man.

He can (a) trade up if there is a player he must have; (b) trade down to stockpile draft capital if he can’t trade up; or stay put. In the past, when Berry was helping Sashi Brown with the draft, the Browns almost always traded down in the first round.

That doesn’t mean that’s what he’ll do Thursday night, especially with four offensive tackles worthy of the 10^th pick.  . . .

It is merely a guess what the Browns’ draft board looks like. One thing is certain: The Browns do not need a quarterback, so that rules out Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and maybe Justin Herbert, at least two of whom will go somewhere in the top 10, dropping a position player closer to them.

One of the four tackles – Tristan Wirfs, Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Mekhi Becton – will be there for the choosing for a team desperate to find a worthy replacement for Joe Thomas.

A lot of mocks have Andrew Thomas landing in Cleveland. Others believe he will go higher and Wills or Becton will fall into the Browns’ lap. I saw only one mock that had Wirfs ticketed for the lakefront.

The Browns would have to get lucky – a team or two making a move no one saw coming – to land Wirfs, who I believe will be as good as Indianapolis Colts guard Quenton Nelson, if not better. If Wirfs is not there, Andrew Thomas would be an acceptable selection.

Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons, who I believe is the best player in the draft, is the only player I would trade up for. He can play just about anywhere on the field. One mock unbelievably has the Clemson linebacker in Seal Brown and Orange for the next decade. That would be a gift.

The Cleveland defense, vulnerable in so many areas, needs a playmaker, a difference maker on that side of the football. Right now, they have no one outside of Myles Garrett who fits that description. Simmons does.

How the first eight or nine picks unfold is what will determine Berry’s course of action. Unless he has something entirely different in mind. . . .

Like making a draft night move that has been discussed ad nauseam for at least half a season. The new GM can solve his offensive left tackle problem by convincing the Washington Redskins to part with Trent Williams, one of the top offensive linemen in the NFL who sat out last season in a dispute with his team.

The Redskins want a second-rounder for the All-Pro. Too high, but a third-rounder (#97) this year and a fifth-rounder next year might get the job done, If so, Berry can concentrate on strengthening the defense in the first two or three rounds with defensive tackle Derrick Brown in mind in round one.

Williams will be 32 this summer, but age should not be a factor for at least two or three seasons. Having not played since the latter stages of the 2018 season, he should be relatively fresh. And now that Jack Conklin has locked down right tackle, the Cleveland offensive line with Williams would be close to elite. . . .

So what about wide receiver? The draft has a treasure trove of players who will catch footballs for a living. Best class perhaps ever say more than a few. But the Browns already have Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr.

And new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense features the run game and tight ends as much, maybe more so, than receivers. Landry and Beckham might not be featured as much in the button-down look. Then factor in the rumors that won’t die that have the Browns shopping Beckham.

How many times do the Browns have to deny Beckham is going nowhere? He’s happy in Cleveland and we’re happy to have him here is the general reply. Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta went so far as to call the latest rumor the wideout was headed elsewhere “completely false.”

One denial after another. But denials every now and then turn into something quite different.

The Minnesota Vikings maintained wide receiver Stefon Diggs was going nowhere earlier this year even though Diggs wanted out. Three weeks after one of their denials, the Vikings shipped Diggs to the Buffalo Bills.

The Browns do have a fallback reason if it turns out Beckham’s tenure with the Browns ends after one season. It goes something like this: “We had no idea that (pick a team) would make an offer we couldn’t quite honestly pass up. We thank Odell for his time here and wish him well in (pick a city).”

So maybe a receiver is in the Browns;’ crosshairs in the early stages of day three Saturday and the final four rounds. . . .

Getting back to the defense, let’s not forget about the secondary, the deep secondary in particular. Not so much in the first round, unless the Browns trade down and land a safety like Xavier McKinney or Grant Delpit, but the second and third days to beef up an area of need.

If Berry does not wind up with at least five picks for the defense (thinking linebacker and safety here), it’s going to be a long season when the opposition has the football. . . .

Caution: Be prepared for the Browns to draft one or two players who will make you blink and think nothing has changed in Berea.

Time now to sit back and find out whether Berry values best player available above need as he navigates his first draft.