Mocking a mocker
I have never done a National Football League mock draft before. Until now. And when it is completed, you'll see why I will never do another one.
It will be abbreviated. That’s because the Browns, maybe, draft in slot No. 10 in the first round Thursday night as a national television audience waits (snark alert) breathlessly (end snark alert) for the uber popular annual event to commence.
After No. 10, not many really care again until it’s the
Browns’ turn again at No. 41 in round two. The “maybe” in the previous graf
refers to the distinct possibility new General Manager Andrew Berry will trade
down when it’s his turn to select.
So for that reason, I’ll mock only the first 10 selections, drawing
conclusions based only on watching these talented players perform last collegiate
season, thus reducing the distinct possibility of making a total fool of myself
by going beyond that.
Let’s start with a couple of no-brainers. If the Cincinnati Bengals
don’t select LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and the Washington Redskins take Ohio
State defensive end Chase Young with the first two picks, they should have
their brains checked.
Then it gets a little dicey in the next seven selections
with quarterbacks, offensive tackles, wide receivers and a linebacker in the
mix. After careful consideration (cue laugh track), here is how it will unfold
with no trades muddying the situation.
The Detroit Lions take OSU cornerback Jeffrey Okudah off the
board before the New York Giants select Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, the best of the
offensive tackles, at No. 4. And that’s when two more quarterbacks come into
focus because the next two teams need one.
The Miami Dolphins at No 5 will surprise by passing on
Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and select Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, who is
not nearly as talented but has played relatively injury-free. The Los Angeles
Chargers say thank you very much and grab the oft-injured Tagovailoa.
So far, so good as Berry sees three offensive tackles, his
main target in this round, still on the board along with playmaking Clemson
linebacker Isaiah Simmons and only three more picks until his turn.
The Carolina Panthers at No. 7 wait maybe a few seconds
before snatching Simmons and now just Arizona and Jacksonville stand between
him and the opportunity to provide his quarterback with protection from the
blind side after getting battered like a piñata last season.
The Cardinals needed a wide receiver until they stole
DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans, shifting their biggest area of need to
offensive tackle. Down goes Georgia tackle Andrew Thomas, dealing a big blow to
Berry, who had his eye on the next Cleveland offensive left tackle with the
surname Thomas.
The Jag-you-ars (Jag-wars?), resisting the temptation to
draft yet another quarterback (Utah State’s Jordan Love?), take Auburn
defensive tackle Derrick Browns, leaving Berry with the following options at
10:
Offensive tackles Mekhi Becton (Louisville), Jedrick Wills
Jr. (Alabama), Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) and Josh Jones (Houston); wide
receivers Jerry Jeudy (Alabama), CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), Henry Ruggs III
(Alabama), safeties Xavier McKinney (Alabama) and Grant Delpit (LSU) and
linebackers Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma) and Patrick Queen (LSU).
Becton and Wills are better than anyone playing left tackle
for the Browns last season, but not better than Wirfs and Thomas. Jones might
be there in round two. Worth a gamble to wait. A superb wide receivers class
means Berry can pick up one on day three.
So what does the GM do as the minutes slip by when he is put
on the clock? He trades down with an eye on Cleveland or Jones, McKinney or
Delpit and Murray or Queen further along in addition to collecting additional
draft picks.
Why? Because those who embrace football analytics place more
value on compiling draft choices than reducing the number of picks by trading
them away in an effort to procure solid talent. All of which is acceptable, but
only if you have savvy people making wise decisions.
And right now, Berry is a blank slate. We’ll know a lot more about him late Saturday afternoon when the first – and probably last – virtual NFL draft concludes.
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