Post-draft musings

After perusing the final grades for the Browns by numerous well-regarded draft analysts around the National Football League landscape, I felt quite curmudgeonly and obviously out of touch.

The lowest grade they have received thus far is a straight B. Pro Football Focus, the well-respected Web site devoted to analytical football, awarded them an A+. In other words, perfect. Really?

The guys at PFF are either the easiest graders on the planet when it comes do evaluating the efforts of teams on draft day or the Browns used PFF material as a guide to make decisions, thus drawing the perfecto.

I, by comparison, am a relatively awful, clueless and much tougher grader after having the temerity to assign the Browns a C+ overall, That includes a C- on the final day after General Manager Andrew Berry selected three offensive players for a team that seriously needs help on defense.

I was, and still am, of the belief that in the grand scheme of things, the Browns drafted only two players (offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and safety Grant Delpit) who will start and make significant contributions this season and beyond.

Most of the other five members of this class will I believe be nothing more than role players. There is not a starter among them, or at least someone who will earn a more than just a low percentage of snaps.

It’s easy to get excited about Wills and Delpit. It’s much, much more difficult to work up any excitement for Jordan Elliott, Jacob Phillips, Harrison Taylor, Nick Harris and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

That quintet might have been starters in college, but there is no guarantee their talents will enable them to successfully make the tough transition to the professional ranks.

Wills and Delpit are NFL ready. They were NFL ready a year ago. Maybe their classmates are seen as fitting well into the team concept Berry and head coach Kevin Stefanski envision where everyone contributes to the cause.

Elliott steps into a situation at defensive tackle where the Browns are probably strongest on that side of the football. He won’t see many snaps. And Taylor most likely won’t get many snaps at tight end unless Stefanski utilizes a lot of three tight-end sets.

As for linebackers, consider this: Of the eight candidates to play the position this season, only rookie Mack Wilson played more than 50% of the snaps last season. That’s it. New middle linebacker B.J. Godson didn’t bank that many last season.

Phillips played middle linebacker at LSU, but the Browns reportedly believe he will make a better weak side backer in the NFL and has an outside shot at starting in his battle with Sione Takitaki, who played sparsely and inconsistently as a rookie last season.

Wilson, a middle linebacker at Alabama, played strong side last season, but is better suited to return inside and replace the departed Joe Schobert. He's much better as an on-the-ball defender than off the ball. Question is whether the coaches will see it that way.

Harris, meanwhile, has no shot at starting along the offensive line. I maintain he is too short – an eighth of an inch shy of 6-1 – to be successful in an NFL snot pit. He is tough, he is quick and he is not tall enough. If he were two inches taller, he would not have been there at pick 160 in the fifth round.

Peoples-Jones probably has the best opportunity at seeing playing time as the third receiver. But he has to hike his game to the level that enabled him to become a five-star recruit at Michigan. He never fulfilled that promise and there is little evidence to believe he will be any better in the NFL.

Berry overall came up short in two areas, both on defense. The linebackers room is full of woefully mediocre talent as a unit, arguably the weakest on that side of the football.

The GM also made no move to improve the pass rush. Right now, Myles Garrett is the pass rush. Olivier Vernon can’t stay healthy. Adam Clayborn is well on the downside of his career. And Chad Thomas has yet to live up to his third-round selection in the 2018 draft.

After Garrett was excused for the final six games of the season after reacquainting Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph with his helmet, the Cleveland pass rush decked opposing quarterbacks only three times in the final five games.

Unless Berry has a trick or two up his sleeve between now and the start of training camp (assuming there is one), what you see now is what you’ll get come early September for the defense. And it’s not pretty.

Guess where his draft crosshairs will be next year.

*       *       *

The virtual draft was so well done and well received, too bad it will be only a one-time event. Props to ESPN for pulling it off with very few hitches and glitches and no hacks. Special props to Trey Wingo, who pulled the whole thing together under trying conditions.

They positioned cameras in most of the top picks’ homes and had archival footage it seemed of everyone who was taken regardless of the round. The only clip missing was one of a Marshall University placekicker selected by New England.

The three-day event also drew TV ratings that probably will never be beaten, probably because it was the only live offering during a time when the sports landscape is barren thanks to the pandemic that brought the country to its knees.

The telecast also took fans into the private world of the men who run and own 32 teams and allowed them to see how uncomfortable Commissioner Roger Goodell looked while conducting the lottery from the basement of his Westchester County home the first two nights.

Goodell, who earns $40 million a year, labored through the first three rounds, looking absolutely whipped toward the end of round three Friday night and wound up announcing picks while sitting in an easy chair wearing a sweater.

Each pick gave viewers a glimpse of those making the command decisions ranging from Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians relaxing just inside his patio to Kansas City coach Andy Reid’s colorful Tommy Bahama shirts to Dallas owner Jerry Jones making picks from his quarter of a billion dollar yacht to Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury relaxing in his spacious pad with a cool view of Camelback Mountain in the distance.

New England coach Bill Belichick was more Spartan with a plain table, a couple of monitors, a laptop and a companion, his Alaskan husky Nike. At one point, with Belichick out of the room, ESPN dropped in to find Nike perched in Belichick’s chair with a Belichick identifier on the lower part of the screen. Best laugh of the night.

*       *       *

Berry and Stefanski, as expected, were effusive about the fruits of their three days’ labor. “Most importantly,” said Berry, “we feel good about adding a number of individuals who embody the tough, smart, accountable culture we are trying to build.” He cited his coach’s  “insight, calmness and intelligence.”

Stefanski believes the Browns “got better on both sides of the ball. We added some guys we look forward to developing. We don’t think any of the guys we’ve added are finished products.”

Of course they aren’t. They are rookies who have no idea what lies ahead and what it will take to become the finished product Berry and Stefanski envision. “We thought our plan was sound,” said the coach. “We wanted to get younger and bring in competition at some of the positions.

“At the same time, you never know how the (draft) board is going to turn out and you may take a guy you never thought would be there. At the end of the day, if you trust your board, you’re usually right. I don’t know if it’s some mystery, but Andrew and I see this thing similarly.” It never hurts to be in lockstep in such matters.

*       *       *

The addition of Bryant to the tight ends room prompted some – okay, me – to wonder how much longer David Njoku will be in the mix. “We still have a ton of belief in David,” said Berry. “. . . David has always been and continues to be in our plans . . . He is part of our long-term plans.”

He backed that up Monday by exercising the fifth-year option in Njoku’s contract. The young veteran missed 10 games last season with injuries and a reported spat with coach Freddie Kitchens. He was a healthy scratch in several games down the stretch.

*       *       *

Finally . . . Garrett’s fifth-year option was also picked up by the club with long-term extensions looming in the near future for both men. . . . The roster after the draft and 15 undrafted free-agent signings over the weekend currently stands at 90. Eight of the 15 play on the offensive side of the ball. . . . The main 75-man roster consists of three quarterbacks, six running backs, five tight ends, nine wide receivers and 13 linemen on offense and 15 linemen, eight linebackers, eight cornerbacks and five safeties on defense, two kickers and a long snapper.

Getting that sunken feeling

Someone, preferably someone up fairly high in the organization, needs to whisper in Andrew Berry’s ear that he needs to address the Browns’ defense in a major way.

After completing his seven-player journey through the National Football League draft Saturday, the scorecard reads four selections for the offense and a very disappointing three for the defense.

Granted Berry’s head coach comes from the offensive side of the football. But he also has to realize that side of the ball was far more dangerous and explosive to begin with. Right now, the new general manager has a marginal defense at best.

He has been around long enough to know you won’t win many games if you cannot stop opposing offenses. The Browns are nowhere near putting a defense on the field capable of accomplishing that.

He nevertheless picked three offensive players – all of them marginal at best – in rounds four, five and six Saturday to end a three-day trek that has not made his club any better defensively than when he started.

You won’t hear anything like that when Berry, coach Kevin Stefanski and club owner Jimmy Haslam III take front and center to present their case to the media – and public – in the next day or two. There is at least one person who won’t buy it.

They will proclaim this is, indeed, a much better team with the newcomers on board. Count on it. That comes with the territory they own. They are not going to put forth anything that smacks of negativity.

And while it is true no one can accurately predict for at least three years how a draft turns out, this one, with a couple of notable exceptions, will not be ranked anywhere near some of the best in club history. Not even close.

It is also unfair to grade it. But that, too, comes with the territory draft analysts and media members trod on and that’s what I’ll do later on.

Berry got off a marvelous start, grabbing Alabama offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and Louisiana State free safety Grant Delpit in the first two rounds. Both will be starters in their rookie seasons.

Then the draft train went off the rails for the next four rounds – they did not own a seventh-round selection – as Berry managed to address the depth, mostly on offense with not one choice having a chance to become a major contributor.

It began innocently in round three when he thought getting a third-round pick next year in a trade with New Orleans at pick 74 was worth dropping 14 spots to 88 than taking Wisconsin linebacker Zack Baun, a Joe Schobert clone. The Saints then grabbed Baun.

After taking Missouri defensive tackle Jordan Elliott at 88 and LSU inside linebacker Jacob Phillips later in round three, Berry concluded day three with three offensive selections – Florida Atlantic tight end Harrison Bryant, Washington center Nick Harris and Michigan wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Taking a tight end comes as no surprise. Stefanski, it seems, can’t have enough of them on his roster. He loves to run a lot of two tight-end sets in his button-down offense. He now has five from whom to choose.

Pencil in Austin Hooper and David Njoku (unless he is traded) for the starting lineup. Bryant will battle Stephen Carlson and Pharaoh Brown for the remaining probable two spots and win.

The Harris pick is a puzzler. Why in the world do the Browns need another center, this one a football midget (I know politically incorrect) who plays a position that requires more height than being able to look his starting quarterback squarely in the eye?

Harris is a pinky fingernail shy of 6-1 and although he checks in at 305 pounds, that height will not work in the NFL against much bigger defensive linemen. His biggest asset is versatility. He can play guard. That does not make him taller.

He won’t unseat JC Tretter. And he’s not a special teamer. It will be interesting to see how Berry spins this pick.  (Sarcasm alert) Maybe Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta can explain. (End sarcasm alert)

It was a wasted pick.

Peoples-Jones, on the other hand, becomes the ninth wide receiver on a team that will not throw the football nearly as much as they have the last few seasons.  Not with Stefanski calling the shots.

Outside of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., no one really sticks out as a strong candidate for work in a multi-receiver set unless Rashard Higgins, who has found the free-agent market a bit chilly, chooses return.

People-Jones was a five-star recruit who excelled more in the classroom than on the football field. He has disappointed after a promising freshman season with the Wolverines, hampered somewhat the last two seasons by mediocre play from his quarterbacks.

The only positive statistic – and this is stretching it – that might have caught the Browns’ attention and swayed this pick was the14 touchdowns he scored on 81 receptions over the last two seasons.

Other than that, the only reason he was picked was because he was the best player on the board at the time. Difficult to reason it any other way. This was definitely not a need selection.

Another wasted pick.

So the scorecard reads thusly: Two very good moves with the first two picks and then a major swerve in a direction that turned sour in a slow-motion hurry that leaves me puzzled and trying to figure out what the hell happened.

It leaves this franchise stronger on offense, woefully below average on defense and produces at least two or three, maybe four, solid special teamers, but only two starters.

Berry began his maiden voyage through the murky waters of the draft smoothly before encountering turbulence as he progressed. The mark of a good general manager is being able to find those hidden gems in the later rounds on a consistent basis.

He clearly has to pick up his game in the latter stages of day two and all of day three. He was a major fail this time. Hopefully, he learned a lesson.

Grade for day three: C-

Overall grade: C+ (and that’s being generous)

Emotional rollercoaster

The second night of the National Football League college draft produced an interesting, to say the least, set of emotions Friday night as rounds two and three entered the history books.

The new Browns’ brain trust, as expected, exhibited analytical tendencies in each of the rounds, trading down in each, procuring an extra fifth-round choice this year and a third-rounder next year.

Each move downward produced interesting results as General Manager Andrew Berry addressed the defense (smart move) with his three selections, adding safety Grant Delpit, defensive tackle Jordan Elliott and inside linebacker Jacob Phillips.

His first deal smacked of brilliance and sure looked as though it would set the tone for the rest of the evening. Sadly, it did not. Here’s why.

After moving down three slots with Indianapolis in the second round and picking up the fifth-round choice this year, Berry grabbed Delpit, who slipped into the second round after having a subpar season at Louisiana State last year.

It marked the second straight season the Browns took a member of the Tigers’ secondary in the second round as Delpit, who will definitely open as the club’s free safety, now joins Greedy Williams in the Cleveland secondary. Plug him in at the position for the next half dozen years.

How smart was that, I gushed to myself. Delpit, projected as a high first-rounder at the beginning of the collegiate season, was hampered by a high ankle sprain midway through the season and never fully recovered.

He fell precipitously in the draft, as did Williams last season, and lost his first-round projection in the eyes of many draft analysts. Berry fortunately thought differently.

Delpit has got the size at 6-2½  and 215 pounds and can play just about anywhere on the field, but probably schemes best at free safety because he has a nose for the football. He’s also quite effective on safety blitzes and working in the box.

Great pick, I told me. The GM shrewdly waited patiently before striking. What a great away to start the evening. A starting offensive tackle in round one Thursday night and now this. Can’t wait until round three.

There were still a lot of very good players on the board and Berry was just getting started. At least that’s what I thought. It didn’t take long, though, for the euphoria to turn into what the hell is he doing?

Just when Berry sent strong signals that after all these years he just might be the main man in charge of turning around this moribund franchise, he went completely off the rails in round three. And analytics was the main culprit.

With Wisconsin outside linebacker Zack Baun still on the board at pick 84, Berry and New Orleans GM Mickey Loomis, hooked up. Loomis teased a pick next year to move up from pick 88 and Berry bit.

That future pick was a third-rounder, a bauble Berry could not turn down even though he moved down a whopping 14 slots.The Saints then wisely grabbed Baun, who would have fit nicely in the Cleveland defensive scheme. But, hey, Berry had another third-round choice next year.

By the time pick 88 arrived, the talent field shriveled to the point where he selected Jordan Elliott, a defensive tackle from Missouri who was not projected as an every down player. He’s strictly a sub package kind of player.

A third-round selection should not be someone who might see maybe 20 snaps a game and is valuable only from a depth standpoint. Unless he’s that good, he won’t take snaps from Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi and Andrew Billings, who was wisely picked up as a free agent recently.

Bottom line: Berry punted the opportunity to get Baun, a likely starter at outside linebacker, and wound up with Elliott, who has no chance at starting.  Oooof.

It got worse nine picks later. With the likes of Ohio State inside linebacker Malik Harrison still waiting to be selected, Berry and his henchmen took Jacob Phillips, another inside linebacker.

The Baltimore Ravens obviously liked Harrison better than the Browns, grabbing him with the very next pick. The Ravens earlier picked up Buckeyes running back J. K. Dobbins. They love those Buckeyes.

Phillips, who led the national champion Tigers in tackles last season, has the size at 6-3. 230, but needs to be a lot stronger if the coaches want him to challenge at middle linebacker. He is special teams demon, though.

From the department of meaningless information, the addition of Phillips and Delpit swells the LSU alumni list on the Browns to five, including Williams and wide receivers Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr.

So a night that began so well in round two and looked so promising at the beginning of round three eventually turns into just another evening of “what in the world were they thinking?” at the draft.

Thursday night’s grade: B+ trending toward A-. Friday night’s grade: B- trending toward C+.

Maybe it’ll work out

Gotta be honest. The Browns’ selection in the opening round of the annual National Football League college draft Thursday night left me puzzled.

Personal preference interfered with my cognitive thinking as the lottery began unfolding toward the Browns’ selection with the 10^th overall pick. The stars seemed to align almost perfectly the closer it got.

The Browns, in desperate need of an offensive tackle, were finally catching a break. When NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell put the Browns on the clock, three of them surprisingly remained on the board.

Tristan Wirfs, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Mekhi Becton were there in one of those didn’t-expect-to-see-all-three-of-them-there moments. Wirfs was my personal favorite. You don’t pass on an offensive lineman out of Iowa, especially one like Wirfs, who was a three-year star with the Hawkeyes.

I was all set to write his name on the list of draftees I was keeping, figuring it was a slam dunk, but decided to hold off because a little voice of suggested I was being a little too confident and should wait until Goodell made it official.

And then he announced, “With the 10^th pick in the 2020 draft, the Cleveland Browns select Jedrick Wills Jr., offensive tackle from Alabama.” My shoulders slumped. “Why can’t they get it right?” I thought to myself.

And then I realized Wirfs, who wound up being taken by Tampa Bay three picks later, had no shot at winding up in Cleveland. Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta proclaimed Wills “was actually the top tackle on our board from the beginning” when addressing the media after the pick.

At this point, I realized it’s all about talent evaluation. One man’s treasure is another man’s trash. Or vice-versa.

I dislike the pick because the Browns, sometimes too often, do not think outside the box. Not that Wills’ résumé isn’t impressive. Several prominent draft analysts who do this for a living had him rated the best offensive tackle on their board.

But Wills is a right tackle. Has been for the vast majority of his burgeoning career. Played very little left tackle at the beginning of his high school career. The Browns are going to change him a left tackle. Or at least make the attempt. And that’s where the left-right argument enters the picture.

Wills excels at right tackle. That is not being questioned here. He gained much of his sterling reputation because he zealously protected the blind side of Alabama southpaw quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

And now he is expected to switch over to the other side of the offensive formation and protect the blind side for Baker Mayfield, the most precious jewel for the offense. That’s quite a bit of pressure for a rookie.

Shouldn’t be a problem, according to General Manager Andrew Berry. “Tackles are tackles,” he says. Makes no difference whether they put their right hand on the ground or their left hand.

He correctly pointed out Jack Conklin, whom he signed to a hefty contract as a free agent recently, was a left tackle at Michigan State and made the successful transition to the right side with Tennessee in the NFL. You think Taylor Lewan being ensconced at left tackle for the Titans might have had something to do with that?

My point here is Berry and his men are not looking at the big picture. Wills can still be a valuable asset to the team without having to switch to the left side. Pencil him in at right tackle, where he’ll surely feel at home.

It would be as simple as moving Conklin back to the left side. He is not a stranger there. Wills is. Conklin can make the switch a lot easier than Wills because he had a stellar three-year career at the position with the Spartans, gaining All-America and All-Big Ten honors a majority of the time.

The muscle memory of those three years at MSU will make it much easier for Conklin to make the switch back than attempting to change Wills completely. Think square peg and round hole.

Offensive line coach Bill Callahan should know this and at least bring it to the attention of coach Kevin Stefanski, who can then make the ultimate decision on what to do. If it makes the Browns are stronger team along the offensive line, and it should, why not?

Then maybe I can rationalize the pick.

*       *       *

The most impressive thing about the opening round, which ran seven minutes shy of four hours, was the absence of a glitch in the league’s first – and probably last – virtual telecast. Everything went smoothly, or at least appeared to except when Goodell faked taunting various audiences on his numerous television screens. Wore thin. . . . The round almost concluded with no running backs taken, Super Bowl champion Kansas City spoiled it by reaching for LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the final pick. Other reaches: Las Vegas, Ohio State cornerback Damon Arnette; Tennessee, Georgia OT Isaiah Wilson; Green Bay, Utah State QB Jordan Love; Seattle, Texas Tech ILB Jordyn Brooks; and Atlanta, Clemson cornerback A. J. Terrell.

*       *       *

Lots of talent for the Browns to ponder in rounds two and three Friday night, a lot of it on defense, where they could use a lot of  help.

Still on the board, in not particular order are: Running backs J. K. Dobbins (Ohio State), D’Andre Swift (Georgia) and Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin); offensive linemen Josh Jones (Houston) and Ezra Cleveland (Boise State); safeties Grant Delpit (LSU), Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne), Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois) and Xavier McKinney (Alabama); linebacker Zack Baun (Wisconsin); defensive linemen A. J. Epenesa (Wisconsin), Ross Blaylock (TCU), Josh Uche (Michigan), Marlon Davidson (Auburn), Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) and Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M); and wide receivers Michael Pittman (USC), Denzel Mims (Baylor), Laviska Chenault (Colorado) and Tee Higgins (Clemson).

Mocking a mocker

I have never done a National Football League mock draft before. Until now. And when it is completed, you'll  see why I will never do another one.

It will be abbreviated. That’s because the Browns, maybe, draft in slot No. 10 in the first round Thursday night as a national television audience waits (snark alert) breathlessly (end snark alert) for the uber popular annual event to commence.

After No. 10, not many really care again until it’s the Browns’ turn again at No. 41 in round two. The “maybe” in the previous graf refers to the distinct possibility new General Manager Andrew Berry will trade down when it’s his turn to select.

So for that reason, I’ll mock only the first 10 selections, drawing conclusions based only on watching these talented players perform last collegiate season, thus reducing the distinct possibility of making a total fool of myself by going beyond that.

Let’s start with a couple of no-brainers. If the Cincinnati Bengals don’t select LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and the Washington Redskins take Ohio State defensive end Chase Young with the first two picks, they should have their brains checked.

Then it gets a little dicey in the next seven selections with quarterbacks, offensive tackles, wide receivers and a linebacker in the mix. After careful consideration (cue laugh track), here is how it will unfold with no trades muddying the situation.

The Detroit Lions take OSU cornerback Jeffrey Okudah off the board before the New York Giants select Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, the best of the offensive tackles, at No. 4. And that’s when two more quarterbacks come into focus because the next two teams need one.

The Miami Dolphins at No 5 will surprise by passing on Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and select Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, who is not nearly as talented but has played relatively injury-free. The Los Angeles Chargers say thank you very much and grab the oft-injured Tagovailoa.

So far, so good as Berry sees three offensive tackles, his main target in this round, still on the board along with playmaking Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons and only three more picks until his turn.  

The Carolina Panthers at No. 7 wait maybe a few seconds before snatching Simmons and now just Arizona and Jacksonville stand between him and the opportunity to provide his quarterback with protection from the blind side after getting battered like a piñata last season.

The Cardinals needed a wide receiver until they stole DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans, shifting their biggest area of need to offensive tackle. Down goes Georgia tackle Andrew Thomas, dealing a big blow to Berry, who had his eye on the next Cleveland offensive left tackle with the surname Thomas.

The Jag-you-ars (Jag-wars?), resisting the temptation to draft yet another quarterback (Utah State’s Jordan Love?), take Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Browns, leaving Berry with the following options at 10:

Offensive tackles Mekhi Becton (Louisville), Jedrick Wills Jr. (Alabama), Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) and Josh Jones (Houston); wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (Alabama), CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), Henry Ruggs III (Alabama), safeties Xavier McKinney (Alabama) and Grant Delpit (LSU) and linebackers Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma) and Patrick Queen (LSU).

Becton and Wills are better than anyone playing left tackle for the Browns last season, but not better than Wirfs and Thomas. Jones might be there in round two. Worth a gamble to wait. A superb wide receivers class means Berry can pick up one on day three.

So what does the GM do as the minutes slip by when he is put on the clock? He trades down with an eye on Cleveland or Jones, McKinney or Delpit and Murray or Queen further along in addition to collecting additional draft picks.

Why? Because those who embrace football analytics place more value on compiling draft choices than reducing the number of picks by trading them away in an effort to procure solid talent. All of which is acceptable, but only if you have savvy people making wise decisions.

And right now, Berry is a blank slate. We’ll know a lot more about him late Saturday afternoon when the first – and probably last – virtual NFL draft concludes.

Thinking about the draft

Thoughts coursing through my mind as we await Roger Goodell opening the 2020 National Football League college draft Thursday night from the commodious basement – he probably calls it something else – in his home in Bronxville, N.Y. . . .

In no particular order, let’s begin with mock drafts and rumors, both of which have consumed a major portion of the time and conversation leading up to the big event. 

Mocks are fun. They are malleable. They change, often times weekly, as rumors help sway where those conducting them believe these prized collegians will land in the opening round of the three-day, seven-round event. 

The initial round is the only one that really counts in terms of accuracy, or something that resembles accuracy. Everything beyond the first 32 selections is pure guesswork.

Fans of the lottery, especially those who take this stuff ultra, ultra seriously, rarely take into consideration that the 32 teams have 32 disparate drafting philosophies. So trying to figure out who is going to do what is often times futile. . . .

The Browns select 10^th in the opening round. New General Manager Andrew Berry has three options at his disposal when Goodell puts him on the clock for his first draft as the boss man.

He can (a) trade up if there is a player he must have; (b) trade down to stockpile draft capital if he can’t trade up; or stay put. In the past, when Berry was helping Sashi Brown with the draft, the Browns almost always traded down in the first round.

That doesn’t mean that’s what he’ll do Thursday night, especially with four offensive tackles worthy of the 10^th pick.  . . .

It is merely a guess what the Browns’ draft board looks like. One thing is certain: The Browns do not need a quarterback, so that rules out Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and maybe Justin Herbert, at least two of whom will go somewhere in the top 10, dropping a position player closer to them.

One of the four tackles – Tristan Wirfs, Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Mekhi Becton – will be there for the choosing for a team desperate to find a worthy replacement for Joe Thomas.

A lot of mocks have Andrew Thomas landing in Cleveland. Others believe he will go higher and Wills or Becton will fall into the Browns’ lap. I saw only one mock that had Wirfs ticketed for the lakefront.

The Browns would have to get lucky – a team or two making a move no one saw coming – to land Wirfs, who I believe will be as good as Indianapolis Colts guard Quenton Nelson, if not better. If Wirfs is not there, Andrew Thomas would be an acceptable selection.

Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons, who I believe is the best player in the draft, is the only player I would trade up for. He can play just about anywhere on the field. One mock unbelievably has the Clemson linebacker in Seal Brown and Orange for the next decade. That would be a gift.

The Cleveland defense, vulnerable in so many areas, needs a playmaker, a difference maker on that side of the football. Right now, they have no one outside of Myles Garrett who fits that description. Simmons does.

How the first eight or nine picks unfold is what will determine Berry’s course of action. Unless he has something entirely different in mind. . . .

Like making a draft night move that has been discussed ad nauseam for at least half a season. The new GM can solve his offensive left tackle problem by convincing the Washington Redskins to part with Trent Williams, one of the top offensive linemen in the NFL who sat out last season in a dispute with his team.

The Redskins want a second-rounder for the All-Pro. Too high, but a third-rounder (#97) this year and a fifth-rounder next year might get the job done, If so, Berry can concentrate on strengthening the defense in the first two or three rounds with defensive tackle Derrick Brown in mind in round one.

Williams will be 32 this summer, but age should not be a factor for at least two or three seasons. Having not played since the latter stages of the 2018 season, he should be relatively fresh. And now that Jack Conklin has locked down right tackle, the Cleveland offensive line with Williams would be close to elite. . . .

So what about wide receiver? The draft has a treasure trove of players who will catch footballs for a living. Best class perhaps ever say more than a few. But the Browns already have Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr.

And new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense features the run game and tight ends as much, maybe more so, than receivers. Landry and Beckham might not be featured as much in the button-down look. Then factor in the rumors that won’t die that have the Browns shopping Beckham.

How many times do the Browns have to deny Beckham is going nowhere? He’s happy in Cleveland and we’re happy to have him here is the general reply. Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta went so far as to call the latest rumor the wideout was headed elsewhere “completely false.”

One denial after another. But denials every now and then turn into something quite different.

The Minnesota Vikings maintained wide receiver Stefon Diggs was going nowhere earlier this year even though Diggs wanted out. Three weeks after one of their denials, the Vikings shipped Diggs to the Buffalo Bills.

The Browns do have a fallback reason if it turns out Beckham’s tenure with the Browns ends after one season. It goes something like this: “We had no idea that (pick a team) would make an offer we couldn’t quite honestly pass up. We thank Odell for his time here and wish him well in (pick a city).”

So maybe a receiver is in the Browns;’ crosshairs in the early stages of day three Saturday and the final four rounds. . . .

Getting back to the defense, let’s not forget about the secondary, the deep secondary in particular. Not so much in the first round, unless the Browns trade down and land a safety like Xavier McKinney or Grant Delpit, but the second and third days to beef up an area of need.

If Berry does not wind up with at least five picks for the defense (thinking linebacker and safety here), it’s going to be a long season when the opposition has the football. . . .

Caution: Be prepared for the Browns to draft one or two players who will make you blink and think nothing has changed in Berea.

Time now to sit back and find out whether Berry values best player available above need as he navigates his first draft.

A draft unlike any other

Normally, this is one of the few times of the sports year I look forward to the most. It’s time for the National Football League’s annual college draft. I’m a junkie. Have been for more years than I care to admit.

This year, though, I am really looking forward to the lottery for a couple of reasons, not the least of which are the circumstances under which it will be conducted.

The three-day event that begins in a week covers seven rounds and will be the first live television offering in roughly two months for a long suffering fan base that has been subjected to a barren sports landscape for way too long.

The killer virus that has robbed the globe of live sporting events has basically snuffed out pure escapism for that fan base. This draft, which normally draws a sizable audience, is certain to eclipse previous ratings with ease this year.

What makes this one different, however, is how it will be conducted. In order to conform to the health guidelines that have created a temporary new normal, this draft will be conducted electronically..

Gone is the glitz and glamour of the last two decades. No fans booing Commissioner Roger Goodell every time he approaches the podium; no fans overreacting to their clubs’ selections; no pre-draft red carpet show.

Goodell, ostensibly alone, will be locked away in the basement of his Bronxville, N.Y., home as he puts each team on the clock. Those making the selections for their clubs will also be alone. Ostensibly.

Players believed to be worthy of a first-round selection will stand by at their respective residences as the choices are announced. No bear hugs or back slaps by Goodell. No preening for the TV cameras. No red-carpet show. It will seem surreal.

Decisions by teams will be made through teleconferencing between the selectors and their staffs in numerous remote locations. If for no other reason, that makes this unique, because it almost assuredly will never happen again.

As for going smoothly, it’s all but a guarantee something will go wrong along the way during the opening round a week from tonight with hackers lurking all over the vast Internet landscape.

In a way, this little venture is somewhat of a throwback to the old days when club officials used to gather in a hotel room or ballroom and made their picks privately.

The draft was born at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Philadelphia in 1936 when the NFL had only nine teams. Jay Berwanger, a University of Chicago halfback – that’s what they were called back then – was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles first overall. He never played a game.

He was dealt to the Chicago Bears and never came to contract terms with them, opting to work for a Chicago rubber company and coach part-time at his alma mater.

The draft back then was nine rounds. It grew to 10 a year later, doubled to 20 in 1939, moved up to 30 rounds in 1943, 25 in 1949, back up to 30 in 1950 (when the Browns joined the league), down again to 20 in 1960, 17 in 1967, 12 in 1977, eight in 1993 and settled in at the current seven rounds in 1994.

It also moved around to eight different cities before settling New York for 50 years at various Manhattan venues before the league decided to take the show, which had become a television phenomenon, on the road again.

The NFL has taken advantage of the extreme popularity of the event by doing so. It was supposed to be in Las Vegas this year, but the virus wiped it out and drove it inside. Next year, Cleveland will be the host city for the draft.

The draft caught fire after ESPN beamed it for the first time in 1980 and then really took off after Mel Kiper Jr., a 23-year-old whiz kid from Baltimore, joined the crew four years later. Kiper will pontificate in his 37^th draft this year.

The event went prime time in 2012 when the league spread it over three days with Thursday’s first round and the next two rounds on Friday cracking the primetime lineup.

Overall, though, the draft has not changed. It is still teams making choices from a field of eligible college players. The only difference now is the way it is being sold and packaged.

Now the league can add virtual drafting to its long list of achievements.

Surreal times

The National Football League is the most fortunate sports league on the globe.

How else can anyone explain that football is the lone sport, professional or otherwise, still active in this country while the rest of the sports world is silent?

At this time of the year, the NFL, except for free agency and the college draft, generally takes a back seat to other pro sports.

It’s the only time of the sports calendar when the other three major sports normally command the attention of fans. There is nothing normal this year.

The world – and sports world – has been brought to its knees by an invisible and virulent virus –CO(rona)VI(rus)D(ecember)-(20)19. The pandemic has cruelly shut down life as we know it. That includes one of life’s great escapes – sports.

What do we now have?

Baseball? Shut down in the middle of spring training. Plans have been made to get the season in, including the World Series. That is not a given. It is a hope.

The NBA? Locked down with almost 75% of the regular season completed. Plans for a postseason? Another hope.

The NHL? Ditto.

March Madness? Not this year. All that work for nothing.

Golf’s Masters Tournament? Postponed until later this year, as was the PGA Tournament. (This just in: The British Open has been cancelled.) 

The 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo? Postponed. Until next year.

The Kentucky Derby? Not the first Saturday in May this year. Postponed until later this year.

The Indianapolis 500? Postponed from the last Sunday in May to late August.

Wimbledon? Cancelled. Until next year.

One iconic event after another either postponed or cancelled.

So where do sports fans go now for their fix? There are no live events for the various sports networks to cover. That’s the lifeblood of electronic medium networks.

Programmers at the major networks are scrambling frantically to fill valuable airtime, in many cases doing deep dives into archival libraries. One can only imagine how much ad revenue has been lost as a result.

Outside of documentaries and magazine type pieces already in the can, fans are now getting a steady diet of oldies such as the 2006 Hamburger Eating Championship, cherry spitting, ax throwing, cup stacking, miniature golf and cornhole competition.

Live news shows, such as SportsCenter on ESPN, are looped and played throughout the evening and into the early morning hours in an effort to be available at all times in all time zones.

No relief with non-sports distractions, either. Wanna go out to eat? Uh, no. Not with stay-home mandates and most of them temporarily closed. How about taking in a movie? Nope. Same reason.

America is confined. No one knows – they can only guess – when this shutdown will end and normal life will resume with the toy department of life once again balancing the more serious aspects of everyday living.

Meanwhile, the NFL hums along after barely escaping the first wave of COVID-19, sneaking in the Super Bowl and Indy Scouting Combine before the you know what hit the you know what.

Commissioner Roger Goodell must be the envy of NBA boss Adam Silver, Rob Manfred of Major League Baseball and the NHL’s ‘s Gary Bettman. While they struggle to keep their respective sports meaningful, Goodell gets the good timing award.

But not before being forced to scale back quite a bit with regard to the upcoming college draft. The three-day event was set to take place with grand pageantry in Las Vegas April 23-25. All public events have subsequently been cancelled due to the pandemic.

It is closed to fans in an effort to limit the spread of the virus. And because of the national social distancing edict, clubs will not be permitted to meet in person with players prior to the lottery. The league went one step further early last week and shuttered the facilities of all 32 teams.

All interviews leading up to the draft will be conducted either by telephone or teleconference, incurring the wrath of just about every personnel man in the league.

Imagine that. Clubs will actually have to make their decisions based on what they have seen on tape and/or film rather than how players comport themselves outside the game itself.

That’s the way clubs approached the draft before the sophistication of scouting players as the popularity of the event skyrocketed. What players did on the field was given more importance back then than it is now.

As it stands, the lottery will be conducted with very little fanfare in an undetermined location with those chosen standing by at home.  The league said it was looking for “innovative options for how the process will be conducted and will provide that information as it becomes available.” Still waiting.

Beyond that, the immediate future of the NFL is floating on clouds of uncertainty. What follows the draft? Normally, it’s minicamps, Organized Team Activities (OTA) and then summer training camp.

Minicamps require mandatory attendance. Not so the OTAs, which are voluntary. If the virtual national lockdown because of the virus remains in effect as late as June or July, there is no certainty NFL teams will conduct business as usual on the field.

That puts the Browns and other teams with new coaching staffs at a disadvantage. New Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski needs minicamps and OTAs to install his system so by the time training camp arrives in late July, the players ostensibly will have a good idea of what to expect.

Without these sessions, and this also assumes the pandemic will have quieted down and there will be a training camp, Stefanski will face an uphill battle in his rookie season as a head coach.

That, of course, is if there is a 2020 NFL season at all. And right now, no one on this planet can guarantee that. Not even Roger Goodell.