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Will all the losing finally end?
At first blush, a perusal of the statistics compiled by the
Buffalo Bills this season sheds little or no light on what to expect when they
invade Sunday to meet the Browns.
They are the vanilla of flavors and the gray of colors.
After digesting the numbers, two questions stand out: How in the world are they
6-2 and a legitimate shot at making the postseason for only the second time
since 1999? And why are they 2½-point underdogs in this game?
While the Browns are the paragon of abject ineptitude and
really bad football since ’99, the Bills are the paragon of mediocrity, just
good enough to avoid being the Browns. Only two winning seasons (9-7 in 2014
and 2017) and one playoff appearance (a wild-card loss to Jacksonville in ’17).
The difference this season is the Bills are winning games that
wound up in the wrong column in the past. They are winning despite any
semblance of impressive numbers.
Perhaps it’s because they are 0-2 against the only teams
with a wining record on the their schedule so far and unbeaten against teams
that are 9-42 overall.
Throw out the 31 points they scored in a victory over Miami
and they average just 18 points a game. Pitch the 31 they allowed in a loss to
Philadelphia and they permit just 14 a game.
The Bills do not overwhelm you with a star-studded team that
dazzles on both sides of the football. All they do is manage to somehow win,
especially on the road, where they are unbeaten in three games.
That’s what the Browns face Sunday and it’s teams like this
that present problems. The Bills rarely make mistakes with their conservative
approach on offense and deceptively effective defense.
That defense surrenders only 17 first downs a game and holds
opponents to fewer than 300 yards of total offense. The secondary has picked
off only six passes this season – Tre’Davious White owns half of them – but has
limited opposing quarterbacks to just 60% accuracy,
They mostly likely will see a lot of Kareem Hunt and Nick
Chubb throughout the afternoon, Hunt making his Cleveland debut after serving
an eight-game suspension for repeatedly violating the National Football
League’s domestic violence policy.
Where the Browns might capitalize on defense is putting
pressure on quarterback Josh Allen, who operates behind an offensive line that
has given up 22 sacks. I say might because the Cleveland pass rush dropped
quarterback Brandon Allen only twice last Sunday against a Broncos line that
had been torched for 27 sacks.
The Bills’ running game is in a state of transition with
veteran Frank Gore slowly giving way to rookie Devin Singletary and quarterback
Josh Allen, who is as bashful at running the football as Baltimore’s Lamar
Jackson.
The Bills thought so much of Singletary, they released
veteran LeSean McCoy before the season began. The bowling ball running back –
he’s 5-7 and 205 pounds – is coming off his breakout game last week, a 140-yard
effort (95 on the ground) in a victory over the Washington Redskins.
Allen is a constant threat to run the ball and a load to
bring down at 6-5, 240. He averages nearly eight runs a game, mostly
scrambling, with four touchdowns in addition to his 10 through the air. He’s
the kind of quarterback who could give the Cleveland defense fits with his scrambling ability.
Browns defenders have probably been notified that Allen, who
has a tendency to carry a football like a loaf of bread, is a fumbler. He has
upchucked the ball 10 times this season, losing three, but has lost it only
once in the last seven games.
Lately, though, he seems to have a problem finding and connecting
with his receivers, opposing pass rushers dropping him 16 times in the last
five games. He has crashed through the 200- yard barrier passing just twice
(202 and 219) in that stretch.
Allen is a much-improved passer this season, connecting on
nearly 10% more of his passes than his rookie season. He’s already thrown as
many scoring passes (10) this season as he did all last season.
His go-to receivers, speedster John Brown and possession
specialist Cole Beasley, have caught half of his touchdown throws. The sneaky
Beasley, the sort who keeps the chains moving, carries a three-game scoring streak
into the game.
Because the Bills use the run (45% of the time) to set up
the pass and don’t bring an aerial circus to town, it will be interesting to
see if Cleveland defensive coordinator Steve Wilks stubbornly stays with his
4-2-5 look a majority of the time.
If he does, look for the Bills, as just about every team the
Browns have played this season have, to chew up valuable real estate in the
trenches. The situation got worse after strong safety Jermaine Whitehead
tweeted himself off the team with an ill-advised angry screed after last
Sunday’s loss,
Making it even more difficult is the absence of Olivier
Vernon (knee), who has been coming on strong lately. Chad Thomas, a third-round
draft pick last season who has been a bust so far, gets first crack at
defensive end opposite Myles Garrett.
(Genard Avery, who had three tackles and half a sack in his
Philadelphia debut last week, would have been a better choice.)
That defense, which coach Freddie Kitchens labeled the
strength of the team, has been anything but during the losing streak,
hemorrhaging 380 yards a game, more than half of that on the ground.
Look for the Buffalo game plan to include at least half the
calls involving trench warfare with Singletary and Gore getting plenty of
opportunities, Allen throwing only when necessary. Unless, of course, the
Browns magically rediscover how to stop the opposition on the ground.
The 2-6 Browns, who have struggled lately to wind up in the
end zone with any regularity, are surprising 2½-point favorites over the 6-2
Bills. Go figure. It will be a dull, low-scoring game with numerous missed
opportunities by both teams.
The Bills are due for a road loss. The Browns are due –no,
make that overdue – for a victory, period. Makes no difference where, but home
would be nice. As Kitchens frustratingly said, “I just wanna win a football
game.” He will Sunday.
Austin Seibert has another busy afternoon with four more field
goals as the offense sputters again in the red zone and the defense chokes off
a late rally by Allen with a Damarious Randall interception in the final two
minutes. Make it:
Browns 19, Bills 17
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