Revisiting the college draft
Deshaun Watson has made such a wonderful transition to the
National Football League from a star-studded college career, the Second
Guessers of the World are having a field day with the Browns.
Commissioner Roger Goodell had not called Watson’s name
among the first 11 selections of the annual NFL college draft last spring in
Philadelphia. The Browns, looking for their quarterback of the future, were
sitting there at 12 after selecting Myles Garrett with the top pick.
In the last two drafts, the Browns’ analytics-minded front
office has made a conscious decision to stockpile draft choices with an eye
clearly on the future. So when the Houston Texans called and offered their
first-rounder (No. 25) and next
year’s first rounder for No. 12, they couldn’t say yes fast enough.
That one was in their draft-stockpile wheelhouse.
The Texans, also looking for their quarterback of the
future, immediately grabbed Watson. The Browns used the Houston pick later on in
the opening round to select safety Jabrill Peppers. And we all know where the
Browns picked up their quarterback of the future.
Fast forward to the present.
Watson was supposed to start the season on the bench. Texans
coach Bill O’Brien, however, did not want to thrust him into regular-season games
right out of the chute. He opened the season instead with Tom Savage, a young
veteran, at the helm.
Six sacks, two lost fumbles and a 19-0 halftime deficit
later, Savage was on the bench at the beginning of the second half in the
season opener at home against Jacksonville and Watson became the team’s
starting quarterback. And it sure looks as though he has every intention of
keeping it.
He has adapted to the pro style of game seamlessly and is making
extremely loud noises, casting an eye on rookie-of-the-year honors with a
dazzling display of quarterbacking that has caught the attention of everyone
around the league. Next up on his docket: Sunday at home against the Browns.
Which, of course, brings up the question whether it was wise
for the Browns to pass on Watson and pick up DeShone Kizer later in the second
round. Other than the same pronunciation of their first names, they have been
polar opposites in their brief pro careers.
Kizer has struggled enough where his coach had seen enough
and benched him after just five games. At the same time, Watson has absolutely blossomed.
Jackson became very defensive the other day when the draft scenario was
broached.
“I totally get it,” he told the Cleveland media. “What did I
tell you guys earlier in the week? You guys can say whatever you like. I get
it. I get the second-guessing, the questions and all of that. You are entitled
to do all of that.
“DeShone Kizer is on our team. Deshaun Watson is on their
team. We can’t all of a sudden flip them. So why are we having this discussion?
I’m being very honest about that.”
The Houston offense has exploded in a point-scoring spree
the last three games with Watson shredding opposing secondaries for 845 yards
and 11 touchdown passes, nine of them in the last two games.
He administered a 57-point spanking on a Tennessee Titans
defense choreographed by the great Dick LeBeau. One can only imagine what lies
in store for the Browns against one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Of course, Watson is just five games into his professional
football career and anything can happen in the next 11 games. But you can’t
ignore what he has accomplished in the last three weeks and call it an
aberration.
So why are the Texans only 2-3 heading into the Browns’ visit?
That doesn’t square with the prodigious numbers Watson puts up.
The problem is the Texans also have to play defense. And
they don’t play it very well, surrendering 130 points (worse than the Browns),
including 92 in the last three games.
It comes down to this: To have a chance to win, the Texans
almost literally have to outpoint opponents to compensate for a leaky defense.
The offense has scored 124 points in the last three games and lost twice.
The chief culprits on the defensive side of the ball have a
distinct northeast Ohio flavor. Mike Vrabel from Akron, Ohio State and the New
England Patriots is having a rough first season coordinating the Houston
defense after coaching the linebackers for three seasons.
He succeeded former Browns head coach Romeo Crennel, who was
bumped up to assistant head coach/defense. Both can point to key injuries that have
hampered the Texans’ struggle to play decent defense.
Last Sunday, they lost defensive end J. J. Watt (broken leg)
and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus (torn pectoral muscle) for the season. Watt
also missed most of last season with a herniated disc in his back.
Linebacker Bernardrick McKinney, the club’s leading tackler,
and Jadeveon Clowney are questionable at best for Sunday for a defense that
yields 323 yards a game on the average and allows opposing quarterbacks to
complete 64% of their passes for 234 yards a game.
That’s not quite as bad as the Browns, who surrender 244
yards a game through the air and allow opposing quarterbacks to complete passes
at a 74% clip. Let that sink in. Three out of every four passes thrown against
the Cleveland secondary wind up as completions.
As if he didn’t have enough weapons to play with in running
back Lamar Miller and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Watson welcomed back wideout
Will Fuller a couple of games ago after he spent two months healing a broken
collarbone. They connected immediately.
Watson celebrated Fuller’s return by completing six passes
to him in those games, four for touchdowns. A wide receiver tandem like Hopkins
and Fuller is downright lethal.
Unless the Cleveland pass rush somehow finds a way to keep
Watson in the pocket and force him to throw before he wants to, the secondary
will be in for an extremely busy and long afternoon. It could get ugly in a
hurry.
The much more balanced Houston offense also produces 141
yards a game on the ground, a challenge for a Cleveland defense that permits a
meager 77 yards a game infantry style.
The biggest difference between the teams on offense is that
Watson has the luxury of throwing to Hopkins and Fuller, while Kevin Hogan
makes his pro starting debut throwing to the likes of Ricardo Louis, Rashard
Higgins, Bryce Treggs, Kasen Williams, tight end David Njoku and, if he is
healthy, Kenny Britt.
Working against a sketchy patchwork Houston defense should
help Hogan. His ability to get the ball out quickly and decisively is a plus. A
large degree of success through the air should help a Cleveland running game
that has been stuck in a mud bog all season.
Jackson most likely will try to take advantage of the
Texans’ porous secondary and return to a heavier dose of passes. Hogan’s
success last week in the second half of the Jets’ loss after coming off the
bench in relief of Kizer could be a precursor for success against Houston.
The Cleveland defense, while trying to cool down Watson’s
recent surge, must be mindful he is also an effective runner, although O’Brien
has him concentrating on throwing the ball rather than running with it.
At Clemson the last two seasons, Watson threw for 76
touchdowns and ran for another 21 in just 30 games, gaining more than 1,000
yards with his legs in 2015. He has run the ball only 22 times for 179 yards
this season.
This one has all the earmarks of a good old-fashioned Texas-style
shootout where defense is nothing more than just another word in the dictionary.
Both quarterbacks have big afternoons, Watson throwing for
three more scores and running for a fourth. But the Texans’ ground game provides
the difference with Miller outdueling the Browns’ Isaiah Crowell.
The Browns’ losing streaks reach six games this season,
stretches to 16 straight overall on the road and nudge Jackson closer to the exit
door. Make it:
Texans 37, Browns 23
Out on a limb.... Game plan works on "D" pass rush 4 contain the edges, clog the middle, collapse the pocket... Spy on Watson with Shoebert or Collins, Timely Blitzes, 4-6 sacks and lots of hurries... Watson 3 turnovers... Browns 27 Texans 20...
ReplyDeleteLimbs are dangerous, Unc. Very, very dangerous. Would you say the same thing with money to support it? Just wondering.
DeleteGonna watch the game again for laughs... Bet only on the parimutuals... And then only when I get inside info on the ones that are not going to have a chance to get there... Will always be a fan... Had 4 seats in the Bleachers for years, long before the pound.. Kinda hard to put it all down now... Maybe I'll develop Dementia, ha ha
DeleteWonder if Hue Jackson has studied the Texan’s game tape and compared the types of plays Deshaun Watson is asked to run to those being asked of Kizer?
ReplyDeleteCleveland is going to have to run the ball a lot - with a healthy dose of Duke Johnson - to make it close.
Hi Richard,
DeleteBill O'Brien's offense is quite different than Jackson's. I wouldn't be surprised if O'Brien has incorporated some of Watson's favorite plays at Clemson into his playbook.
I have come to realize that Jackson is a "QB Guru" only if he's given a talented QB(ie: Flacco, Dalton). He has failed with RGIII. Kessler, Osweiler and now Kizer is going down in flames. Wake up fans, his reputation is certainly not deserved! If or when the organization realizes this is another question.
DeleteThat topic is on the future docket, Bill. That and his talents as a head coach.
ReplyDelete