Flipping a coin
The New York Jets finished with a 5-11 record last season
and a roster littered with malcontents. That is totally unacceptable in that
market.
Something had to be done. General Manager Mike Maccagnan
decided to clean house.
When several productive veterans on both sides of the
football were cashiered, it was thought in some quarters that the Jets were
taking dead aim on the top pick in next year’s college football draft.
And when they signed 38-year-old Josh McCown to helm the
offense, every conclusion pointed at that very notion, especially with a strong
quarterback class ready to come out.
What better way to be in position to grab one of those
quarterbacks – Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson just to
name a few – than to dive to the bottom of not only the AFC East, but to the
basement of the entire National Football League.
Follow the script the Browns wrote last season when they
jettisoned six valuable members of the 2015 team and tumbled all the way to
1-15 with a team that played just well enough to deserve that record. And got
the overall first pick.
So after parting with the likes of receivers Eric Decker and
Brandon Marshall, defensive backs Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pryor, defensive
lineman Sheldon Richardson, linebacker David Harris and center Nick Mangold,
why are the Jets 2-2 entering Sunday’s road game against the Browns? They were
supposed to be 0-4.
The expected dive apparently existed only in the minds of
those who believed a 50% roster turnover would translate into disaster with an
eye on the future. Take the hit now and reap the rewards later.
Coach Todd Bowles and Maccagnan had other ideas. They
figured they had nothing to lose by clearing the locker room of the malcontents
and changing the culture with a bunch of new faces. And they have been
vindicated thus far.
When those who predicted hard times ahead for the Jets now
look at the standings in the AFC East, they see the Jets owning the same record
as the New England Patriots (before the Pats’ victory Thursday night over Tampa
Bay.). And then they see the 0-4 Browns on deck.
It has caused the multitude of 2018 mock draft sites to
rethink where the Jets will finish and make the necessary adjustments. It
removes one of the Browns’ chief contenders for that top pick.
Which brings us to the game itself.
The Jets lost the first two games of the season on the road
before winning the last two at home, the latest a 23-20 overtime victory over
the Jacksonville Jaguars.
They average a very respectable 131 yards on the ground, but
the defense permits a gaudy 144 yards a game. It’s through the air that the
Jets have significantly improved.
Replacing 34-year old Ryan Fitzpatrick with the
four-years-older McCown has helped take pressure off the run game. McCown, who
played the last two seasons with the Browns and counts them as the seventh of eight
teams he has played for in his 15-year NFL career, has completed 70% of his
passes this season.
Veteran wide receivers Jermaine Kearse and Jeremy Kerley, brought
in by Maccagnan to help McCown, have combined with returnee Robby Anderson to
catch 43 passes for 479 yards and three touchdowns.
The Browns wish they had receivers like Kearse, obtained
from the Seattle Seahawks for Richardson, and Kerley, who began his NFL career
with the Jets in 2011 and was signed as a free agent just before the start of
the season.
The Jets, though, hardly involve their tight ends in the
game plan. Only 11 catches for 102 yards, which very well might mean an
afternoon off for deep, deep, deep Browns
free safety Jabrill Peppers.
The veteran offensive line is coming off a 256-yard game on
the ground with running backs Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire accounting for
the entire yardage. Powell scored on a 75-yard romp; McGuire ripped off a
69-yard touchdown.
That battle up front against a Cleveland defense that allows
just 87 yards a game on the ground probably will be a key factor in who wins
this game, especially if Browns rookie defensive end Myles Garrett is healthy
enough to finally make his NFL debut, albeit on a limited basis.
Defensively, the Jets are vulnerable to a strong running
game, which probably eliminates anything the Browns might think of doing in
that capacity since Hue Jackson chooses to put the ball in the air 70% of the
time.
With Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr. champing at the bit
to run, it stands to reason Jackson and his cohorts on the offensive side of
the ball have seen enough tape of the Jets’ inability to stop the run and
decide to turn Crowell and Johnson loose.
Then again, placing reason and Hue Jackson in the same
sentence constitutes an oxymoron.
Inside linebacker Demario Davis is back with the Jets after
a season with the Browns and leading the team in tackles. The Browns’
second-leading tackler last season should be familiar with Jackson’s approach
to the ground game.
The Jets defend the pass much better than the Browns,
allowing only a 58.8% completion rate and just 204 yards a game to opposing
quarterbacks, which makes DeShone Kizer’s 51.4% completion rate and eight
interceptions look appetizing to the Jets’ secondary.
At the beginning of the season, I thought this was the
Browns’ best chance to win a game in the first five games. I also thought, as
most followers of the NFL thought, the Jets would either threaten to match the
Browns’ 1-15 record last season or join the 2008 Detroit Lions as the only NFL teams
to lose all their games.
Splitting their first four games removes those possibilities
and creates a conundrum with regard to this game. The Jets are on a mini-roll.
They arrive in Cleveland brimming with confidence. The Browns are coming off
their worst game of the season at home. They badly want to make it up to the
home folks.
Let’s review: Incentive and home cooking on Browns’ side;
Jets on a roll and confident after two victories in a row; both Jets losses on road;
Jets have won last four meetings between teams; Jets run ball well; Browns stop
run well; Browns take five-game losing streak into this one. Add it all up,
remove coin from pocket, flip it and it comes up . . . Browns. With fingers
crossed, make it:
Browns 23, Jets 21
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