Looking for reasons

There will be one certainty for the defense Sunday when the Browns host Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. The secondary will have plenty of chances to do something they haven't done much of this season: Intercept a forward pass.

Brady averages nearly 43 passes a game this season, ample opportunity for someone, anyone, in that secondary to make certain one of those passes relegates the future Hall of Famer to the bench, wondering what just happened.

It has reached that point in the 2022 season when relying on luck might be the only thing where something like that will eventuate. In 302 opportunities for a pick this season, the opportunity-challenged defense has swiped a measly three, or a smidge less than 1%. 

The picks arrived in game 1, a victory against Carolina; game 4 against Atlanta, a loss; and game 8 against Cincinnati, a victory. Three interceptions helped produce two of the club's three victories. Searching for a clue here. Got one. Games 1, 4, 8 and now game 11. The Browns, who have currently gone 11 quarters without one, are due.

Looking for any reason to pick the Browns to end a two-game skid and win for just the second time in the last eight games. Getting that pick has got to be it. And then I realize it's Tom Brady. And what does he specialize in? Throwing few interceptions.

He's thrown for only a dozen touchdowns this season in 10 games, but has been picked off only twice. In his 24-year career, he has thrown 11,744 passes and been pilfered just 205 times, or 1.7% of the time. Looks like four more quarters of frustration.

Gotta look elsewhere for a reason. How about this? Brady is slow-footed, 45 years old and can almost always be found in the pocket. The Cleveland pass rush is due for a bust-out game. Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney are relatively healthy. 

Another check of the statistics, however, reveals Brady has been sacked just 14 times in 441 dropbacks, or 3%, behind a solid pass-protecting offensive line. And he distributes the ball evenly among receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and tight ends Cameron Brate and Cade Otton.

Still looking.

The Bucs don't run the ball much, which might be a break for the worn-out Browns run defense. They average about 80 yards a game on the ground and have posted only two games over 100 yards this season, the latest a 161-yard effort in a victory over Seattle two weeks ago before entering the bye week.

In that one, rookie running back Rachaad White busted out with a 105-yard game -- he had just 117 yards in his first nine games -- and is now pushing veteran Leonard Fournette for more reps. Fournette's team-leading six touchdowns are evenly split between running and receiving.

The Bucs don't score much, either, averaging only 18.3 points a game. Their high, in a losing effort, was 31 points against Kansas City. But the defense covers for them, limiting opponents to just 18 points per. Quite the antithesis of the situation in Cleveland, where the defense is clearly clueless.

Still looking.

So what are the chances the Bucs' coaching staff discovered how easily the Browns can be run on? Miami and Buffalo, the last two opponents, favor the pass over the run just like the Bucs. And what did they do?  Pounded the Cleveland run defense for 366 yards. 

The Tampa defense also loves harassing opposing quarterbacks, ringing up 32 sacks with an impressive stack of hits and hurries. And considering the Browns' difficulties at center with Ethan Pocic now on injured reserve and Hjalte Froholdt questionable, that sack total almost certainly will rise.

If Froholdt can't go, veteran Greg Mancz, signed as a free agent a few days ago as insurance, will man the pivot. The 6-4, 305-pounder out of Toledo University has played with the Houston Texans, Miami and Buffalo.

Done looking.

It all adds up to a game that probably will draw yawns from the home folks with neither team blowing out the scoreboard with points in Jacoby Brissett's final game before giving way for the last six games to Deshaun Watson.

Two more stats that tilt this one even more in favor of the Bucs. Brady is 7-1 in his career against the Browns, losing the only game in 2010 (34-14 in Cleveland) while with the New England Patriots. He is also 15-5 coming out of the bye. Give him two weeks to prepare and you'd better not be the next game. This is the next game. Make  it:

Buccaneers 24, Browns 13

(More family matters to attend to this weekend and will not be able to watch the game live. Am taping it, though, and will resume writing by the middle of the week with observations. Thanks.)