Saturday, October 15, 2022

Three (losses) in a row?

Is it possible the Browns game Sunday at home against the New England Patriots can be considered a mirror-image game? 

Think of it this way: Both teams enter the game at 2-3; both are operating with  backup quarterbacks; both have very strong running games; both quarterbacks are supported by solid offensive lines; both own inconsistent defenses; and both teams are at a stage of the season where another loss severely lessens their chances for the postseason.

So what kind of a game can we expect? One separator distinguishes the main difference between these two teams: Coaching. It is a slam dunk in favor of the Patriots.

Bill Belichick, operating this season without offensive and defensive coordinators, knows how to beat the Browns. He practically owns them. The overall series is tied at 13-13, but the former Cleveland coach is 8-1 against his old team since losing his first crack at them in his first season with the Pats in 2000.

Kevin Stefanski is a relative neophyte. He's still getting his toes wet with how to handle a team, not just an offense. Too many parts are falling apart -- mostly on defense and special teams -- and are still under construction.

Belichick's strengths over the years are strong defense and even better special teams. Offense with Tom Brady for all those years was a big factor, of course, but defense and special teams are what won all those Super Bowl rings for two decades. 

Last season's 45-7 drubbing of the Browns in Foxboro in week 10 turned out to be a blessing is disguise for the Cleveland defense, which suddenly turned into a top five unit, limiting the remaining seven opponents to just 18.6 points a game. A soft offense torpedoed the season.

There has been absolutely no carryover by that defense this season. It stands as the main reason the Browns are struggling, having lost three of their last four games, including the last two in a row.That's why Sunday's game carries a must-win label.

Same for the Patriots, who come into this one with momentum after hanging a rare shutout on the Detroit Lions, who entered the game last Sunday as the highest scoring team in the National Football League. The main factors? Defense and special teams. Belichick magic from a coaching standpoint. 

The Patriots offense this season pretty much depends on the availability of quarterback Mac Jones, who guided them to a 10-7 record as a rookie last season. His status for this one is iffy with ankle problems and is being listed as questionable. The guess here is Belichick gamesmanship to keep Stefanski guessing and rookie Bailey Zappe will start.

Because these teams rely heavily on the ground game to set up the passing game, look for both defenses to load the box with as many as eight men to limit the tough infantry yards and force Zappe and Jacoby Brissett to throw the ball.

The combined talent quotient between these quarterbacks suggests a low-scoring game with a majority of points manufactured through takeaways, field position with punting a major factor, time of possession and field goals with Nick Folk, who booted five in the Lions victory, holding a decided edge over Cade York.

When Zappe is not handing the ball off to Rhamondre Stevenson, who gashed the Browns for 100 yards and two touchdowns last season and put up 161 yards last Sunday, his main targets will be Jakobi Myers, Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker and tight end Hunter Henry. If he has a strong afternoon in his second NFL start, the Browns are in deeper trouble than any of us thought.

The key for the Cleveland defense will be to confuse Zappe with multiple looks in the secondary, blitz  from different angles on occasion and hope Myles Garrett plays more like the Myles Garrett who is about to break the club record for career sacks than he did in last week's loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The key for the offense will be slowing down linebacker Matt Judon and edge rusher Deatrich Wise Jr, who own 10 of the club's 11 sacks, maintaining the NFL's best running game with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, helping tight end David Njoku fill up the stats sheet for the fourth straight week and continuing to zealously protect Brissett, who has been dropped only five times this season.

Unlike last Sunday's scoring bonanza, this one will wind up with boringly few points. Brissett and Zappe show why they are backups, the dropped-pass rate for both teams will edge higher and coaching will be the deciding factor. Can't pick against Belichick until he loses to the Browns. Stefanski drops his third straight game for the second time since becoming head coach and falls to 3-6 in the last nine games. Make it:

Patriots 23, Browns 15

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