Saturday, October 9, 2021

Making a statement? 

In the coaching lexicon of the National Football League is what is loosely called a statement game. It's usually a singular targeted game -- every now and then maybe one or two more than that -- during the season when a team's record is deceiving and needs to be more clearly justified with a strong performance.

Take, for example, the Browns. They are 3-1, in the midst of a three-game winning streak and atop the AFC North with Cincinnati and Baltimore. And yet, it is not what you would call a comfortable position. Not with three disappointing offensive games in a row against teams with a combined record of 4-8.

Heading into the 2021 season, just about everyone in the NFL orbit believed the Browns, not even arguably, had one of the most potent and dangerous offenses. Outside of a terrific opening game in Kansas City, that has not been the case. Far from it.

And that sets up what will be the Browns' first statement game of the season Sunday in Los Angeles against the 3-1 Chargers, who are coming off consecutive victories over division rivals Las Vegas and Kansas City. 

What better statement can the Browns make than by knocking off one of the league's hottest teams led by one of the best young quarterbacks in the league and on the road? It doesn't get much better than that. It would certainly silence those who see blemishes despite the record.

The Browns have not won those three games because of Baker Mayfield. They won those games in spite of a series of below-average performances by the Cleveland quarterback. If the offense plays Sunday like it did last Sunday against Minnesota, that winning streak will come to a screeching halt.

Yes, the Browns' defense has sparkled the last two games, And yes, middle linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. is back after spending the last three games on injured reserve. It's the offense, based on what we've seen lately, that poses the problem.

Mayfield, partially torn left labrum and all, needs to play that statement game with his buddies on Sunday. The kind of game that sends a message to the rest of the league that the Cleveland offense is far from approaching life support territory despite owning the NFL's best ground game.

The Chargers' defense is quite capable of shutting down that infantry and force Mayfield, whose three-game snooze has produced just two touchdown passes and whose completion percentage the last two games hovers way too close to 50%, to beat them through the air.

Adding to the concerns -- guessing head coach Kevin Stefanski calls them something else -- is the temporary loss of left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr., who has been given the week off to give his injured ankle time to heal, which revs up the next-man-up machine.

Next man up would have been Chris Hubbard, but he undergoes season-ending triceps surgery next week. Next next man up is pick your poison (or cross your fingers) -- Blake Hance or rookie James Hudson III. Both men have filled in for Wills. Hance is more experienced. That is his only edge.

Either way, the quality quotient of that unit takes a solid hit with Wills and Hubbard unavailable. Losing one starting part really does make a huge difference. As a result, its status as one of the best offensive lines in the league temporarily drops. 

Wills' absence, even if it's for just one game, weakens the unit overall. It negatively affects its rhythm as a whole. You can be fairly certain that whoever replaces Wills will get help from a tight end when Stefanski dials up a pass.

Overall, the coach probably has to moderately restructure his playcalling philosophy and play design if he wants to keep his quarterback vertical against a decent Chargers pass rush that features Joey Bosa, who has yet to really bust loose this season. Ostensibly, he'll battle with right tackle Jack Conklin.

While Mayfield attempts to pull his offense out of its slump -- sure feels odd writing that during a winning streak, but it's true  -- in an effort to balance out the overall output by locating and fixing his passing woes, the defense faces its biggest challenge of the season since the opener.

The plan is to get up close and personal with 6-6, 235-pound quarterback Justin Herbert, who connects on nearly 70% of his passes and averages nearly 300 yards a game. The pro sophomore checks in with nine touchdown throws and just three picks, and converts at a 50% rate on third down.

His offensive line protects him, statistically speaking, better than just about anyone, limiting the opposition to just seven sacks in four games. Another challenge for a Browns defensive line that has played well since Kansas City.

The Cleveland secondary must contend with standout wide receivers Keenan Allen (6-2) and Mike Williams (6-4) and 6-5 veteran tight end Jared Cook. Tall receivers have given them trouble in the past.

Most of the pressure, though, will be on Mayfield, who maintains he is not worried and will pull out of this. That there is nothing about which to be concerned. All he has to do is go out and prove his optimistic approach is not just an attempt at staying positive.

Oddsmakers still like the Browns, however, installing them as only point-and-a-half underdogs on the road. That's most unusual considering teams from the Eastern time zone do not generally fare well on the west coast.

Even though I think Mayfield will rediscover his accuracy Sunday, it will arrive well into the final quarter, too late to save the game, which will by dominated by Herbert, who will be virtually untouched by the Cleveland pass rush as he adds three more scoring throws to his total, and the defense, which holds Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt under 100 total yards. That statement game will have to wait. Make it: Chargers 27, Browns 15

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