Saturday, September 25, 2021

Low scoring and close

It night be a tad early to suggest this, but after the first two games of the 2021 National Football League season, Browns fans aren't quite certain what kind of a team they support.

They looked like they were on their way to joining the elite of the league before stumbling late against Kansas City in the opener. The feeling was it was just a little bump on the way to the top.

In week two, though, the Browns stumbled early and often before finally beating the Houston Texans, a team they should have handled easily. The antithetical performance had to furrow more than a few eyebrows in Browns Nation.

That begs the question, then, as week three brings the Chicago Bears to town Sunday afternoon: Will the real Cleveland Browns please stand up?

A valid question to be sure because we have seen a few different versions of a team searching for its identity on both sides of the football and coming up relatively empty. The offense is still lethal to a large degree, but the defense has been disappointing.

The growing pains of the defense would not be worrisome if progress was achieved. It wasn't between games one and two even though the record was evened at 1-1. Had it been just about anyone other than the Texans, they might be looking at 0-2 against the Bears.

How the Browns play against the Bears will shine a much better spotlight on just where this team is headed, They need to put together a 60-minute game for the first time this season with each aspect complementing the other in order to start feeling good about themselves. It's missing.

The Bears might just be the perfect opponent in that regard. They won't scare you from a talent standpoint,. They beat you with sound, fundamental football. On offense, they just hang around while the defense, the heart of the team,  jumps on and capitalizes on just about every mistake.

The professional starting debut of quarterback Justin Fields sheds a slightly different light on the Chicago offense, which was relatively stodgy under Andy Dalton, sidelined for this one with a bone bruise of the knee. Fields presents different problems from an athletic viewpoint.

You always knew where Dalton was -- the pocket. Fields most likely will be much more unpredictable and try to make positive plays with his feet when other options are taken away. Making certain he doesn't make plays that put you in mind of Baltimore's Lamar Jackson should be one of the Browns' goals. 

Because he hasn't played enough to get a handle on what to expect from the rookie from Ohio State, it will be interesting to see what gems defensive coordinator Joe Woods hauls from his bag of tricks to confuse the rookie.

Three main problems here: Woods plays zone roughly 80% of the time; the pass rush has been AWOL all season against two average-at-best offensive lines; and dialing various blitz packages seems to have become unfashionable. It adds up to a secondary that is way too busy.

Fields is still getting his feet damp in the NFL. You can coach him up all you want to get ready for his first start, but there is no way he has quickly achieved the ability to instantly recognize opposing defenses and change plays at the line of scrimmage.

Good defensive coordinators generally have fun mixing it up against rookie quarterbacks. A little of this, a little of that. Keep him guessing. This will be a  good test for Woods, whose creativity quotient has fallen well short of expectations thus far.

The Chicago defense, meanwhile, presents a different challenge. It almost annually leads the NFL in points allowed and racks up takeaways in the high teens. The Bears employ arguably the best set of linebackers in the league with Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn on the outside and Roquan Smith and Alec Ogletree in the middle of the 3-4 .

It's a tough defense to run against and those backers are key to the success of the pass rush, which has produced six sacks. They added solid pass coverage to the package last Sunday, swiping three Joe Burrow passes, including a pick six by Smith, en route to a 20-17 victory over Cincinnati in their home opener.

Taking everything into consideration, this one has all the makings of a low-scoring game. The Bears play the game of ball possession very well (33 minutes a game) with a defense that has little trouble getting off the field. Even with the uncertainty of what kind of game Fields will play, the Bears are not scary on offense.

Look for the Browns' to improve their third-down defense against the weakest offense they've faced this season -- the Chiefs and Texans converted 63% of their third downs -- and the pass rush will flourish against the weak Chicago offensive line. 

But Baker Mayfield will struggle and the offense will play an uneven game, much like last week, mainly because the Bears will effectively shut down the Cleveland ground game and force Mayfield to throw. He'll find David Njoku and Harrison Bryant for second-half scores and the defense holds the Bears to less than 250 yards of total offense, Make it: Browns 20, Bears 13

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