Saturday, September 26, 2020

A 2-1 start?

Oddsmakers say the Browns are seven points better than the football team formerly known as the Washington Redskins Sunday as they attempt to go 2-1 for the first time since 2011.

Statistically, especially on offense, they are the better team. But in the National Football League, where anything can happen on a given Sunday, that means absolutely nothing. Such will be the case Sunday.

Theoretically, the Browns should have no problem putting points on the scoreboard as they did with relative ease in knocking off Cincinnati 10 days ago. If head coach Kevin Stefanski sticks to that script and combines his strong running game with a safe passing game, that should work.

But coaches oftentimes fall into bad habits like overthinking a situation. Like perhaps altering the game plan against the Washington Football Team because it has a solid defensive front featuring five five first-round draft choices. 

Why? Whatever happened to executing what you do best and if the opposition stops it, be ready with plans B, C and D. Be ready in any situation. But don't abandon your strength. It is entirely possible your strength can overwhelm their strength.

The revamped Cleveland offensive line pulled off the daily double in the Bengals victory. No sacks and no quarterback hits. When was the last time that happened? It is a confidence builder. 

Stefanski schemed Baker Mayfield out of the pocket enough on play action or designed rollouts where his uniform was nearly spotless after the game. Getting the ball out his hands quickly nullified a decent Bengals pass rush. So why not duplicate that plan Sunday?

Good question. That goes back to my original notion that coaches tend to overthink. There is no reason to think Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt won't get at least 30 carries. It worked perfectly against the Bengals? So why not Washington?

Of course it didn't work in the season-opening debacle against Baltimore when the defense crumbled and the Ravens shot so far ahead by halftime, passing was the only way to rally quickly. But the Browns, let's be honest, are not yet a good passing team.

Offensive linemen, if asked, would most likely admit they would much rather run block than pass block. And because you have two Pro Bowl running backs like Chubb and Hunt, it makes sense to run the football regardless of the opposition.

A quick check of Washington's statistics reveals the defense regurgitates 350 yards a game, about 100 of those on the ground, so there is some vulnerability there. 

They also reveal a stat that scares a few people -- 11 sacks in the first two games. It suggests the Cleveland offensive line will be in for a long afternoon with the likes of rookie Chase Young and pro sophomore Montez Sweat chasing Mayfield.

Eight of those sacks were recorded in the season opener against Philadelphia, whose quarterback sets up office in the pocket. Against Arizona last Sunday, a much more mobile Kyler Murray was nailed only three times in a 30-15 loss.

Therein lies the key to a Cleveland victory and the difference between a 2-1 start and 1-2 beginning. Once Murray escaped the pocket, as he did on numerous occasions, the WFT's strength disappeared. 

Now Mayfield is not nearly as quick or fast or elusive as his predecessor at Oklahoma, but when schemed by the offensive staff, can become just as dangerous. In fact, he, for whatever reason, appears to throw better when on the run than from the pocket.

He is more decisive and much more accurate, whether it's rolling out to his throwing side or misdirection against the grain. His touchdown throw to Odell Beckham Jr. against the Bengals came on a misdirection play.

How often have we seen Mayfield from the pocket begin throwing and then pull the ball back, often resulting in a negative play? That usually throws off the timing of pass routes run by receivers. He has been around the NFL long enough now to be able to accurately read defenses.

The Redskins thus far have had problems getting started in games. They fell behind the Eagles, 17-0, until scoring in the final minute of the first half before rallying for a 27-17 victory, Last Sunday, the Cardinals blew out to a 20-0 halftime lead en route to a 30-15 victory.

The Browns would love to duplicate their start last week against the Bengals when they scored touchdowns on three of their four first-half possessions. All of which bodes well for the Browns, right? You'd think so. That would appear to favor them until you remember the rules dictate they must play on defense. 

Second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins Jr. isn't frightening anyone this season. His offense averages 278 yards a game, less than 19 first downs a game, owns the football for just 28 minutes and is 9-for-30 on third down. J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson share the brunt of a running game that hasn't cracked the 200-yard mark yet.

This one also becomes interesting if Denzel Ward's groin, injured in the Bengals victory, forces him to join fellow cornerback Greedy Williams (shoulder) as spectators. If Ward, who undoubtedly would love to face former Ohio State teammates Haskins and wide receiver Terry McLaurin, can't make it, Kevin Johnson returns from the injured list and pairs with Terrance Mitchell.

Two other observations: Haskins completes only 56% of his passes, has thrown for only 401 yards and two touchdowns (no picks . . . yet) and can always be found in the pocket. He is not a runner. Never was at Ohio State, either.

This one, much like the Cincinnati game, should wind up in the win column. There is no excuse losing to this team. Many pundits predict a shootout much like the Bengals game. Don't see that happening because the Cleveland pass rush will pick up at least another three sacks.

So with fingers crossed (only because of the awful Cleveland defense), Mayfield & Co. make it two in a row at home with all facets of the offense sparkling. Make it:

Browns 34, Washington Football Team (PKA Redskins) 20











 


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