Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Mocking a mocker

I have never done a National Football League mock draft before. Until now. And when it is completed, you'll  see why I will never do another one.

It will be abbreviated. That’s because the Browns, maybe, draft in slot No. 10 in the first round Thursday night as a national television audience waits (snark alert) breathlessly (end snark alert) for the uber popular annual event to commence.

After No. 10, not many really care again until it’s the Browns’ turn again at No. 41 in round two. The “maybe” in the previous graf refers to the distinct possibility new General Manager Andrew Berry will trade down when it’s his turn to select.

So for that reason, I’ll mock only the first 10 selections, drawing conclusions based only on watching these talented players perform last collegiate season, thus reducing the distinct possibility of making a total fool of myself by going beyond that.

Let’s start with a couple of no-brainers. If the Cincinnati Bengals don’t select LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and the Washington Redskins take Ohio State defensive end Chase Young with the first two picks, they should have their brains checked.

Then it gets a little dicey in the next seven selections with quarterbacks, offensive tackles, wide receivers and a linebacker in the mix. After careful consideration (cue laugh track), here is how it will unfold with no trades muddying the situation.

The Detroit Lions take OSU cornerback Jeffrey Okudah off the board before the New York Giants select Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, the best of the offensive tackles, at No. 4. And that’s when two more quarterbacks come into focus because the next two teams need one.

The Miami Dolphins at No 5 will surprise by passing on Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and select Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, who is not nearly as talented but has played relatively injury-free. The Los Angeles Chargers say thank you very much and grab the oft-injured Tagovailoa.

So far, so good as Berry sees three offensive tackles, his main target in this round, still on the board along with playmaking Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons and only three more picks until his turn.  

The Carolina Panthers at No. 7 wait maybe a few seconds before snatching Simmons and now just Arizona and Jacksonville stand between him and the opportunity to provide his quarterback with protection from the blind side after getting battered like a piñata last season.

The Cardinals needed a wide receiver until they stole DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans, shifting their biggest area of need to offensive tackle. Down goes Georgia tackle Andrew Thomas, dealing a big blow to Berry, who had his eye on the next Cleveland offensive left tackle with the surname Thomas.

The Jag-you-ars (Jag-wars?), resisting the temptation to draft yet another quarterback (Utah State’s Jordan Love?), take Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Browns, leaving Berry with the following options at 10:

Offensive tackles Mekhi Becton (Louisville), Jedrick Wills Jr. (Alabama), Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) and Josh Jones (Houston); wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (Alabama), CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), Henry Ruggs III (Alabama), safeties Xavier McKinney (Alabama) and Grant Delpit (LSU) and linebackers Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma) and Patrick Queen (LSU).

Becton and Wills are better than anyone playing left tackle for the Browns last season, but not better than Wirfs and Thomas. Jones might be there in round two. Worth a gamble to wait. A superb wide receivers class means Berry can pick up one on day three.

So what does the GM do as the minutes slip by when he is put on the clock? He trades down with an eye on Cleveland or Jones, McKinney or Delpit and Murray or Queen further along in addition to collecting additional draft picks.

Why? Because those who embrace football analytics place more value on compiling draft choices than reducing the number of picks by trading them away in an effort to procure solid talent. All of which is acceptable, but only if you have savvy people making wise decisions.

And right now, Berry is a blank slate. We’ll know a lot more about him late Saturday afternoon when the first – and probably last – virtual NFL draft concludes.

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