Guessing the final 53

It’s that time of the football year again. The time where I cross my fingers in multiple directions and attempt to pare the Browns’ training camp roster down to the final 53 men.

And because General Manager John Dorsey has assembled a damn good football team in just a short period of time, most of the guesses will involve the lower sector of the roster.

About 35 players are chiseled and guessing they’ll make the final 53 is ridiculously easy. It’s the last 15 or so that will involve throwing darts.

Approximately 37 players will either go home or launch immediate searches to continue their professional football careers. But because Dorsey realizes there are still some weak areas to fix, the 53 names we get Saturday afternoon could change significantly.

The GM will be nose deep in the roster cuts of the other 31 NFL teams this weekend. The roster we see Saturday at 4 o’clock might not be the roster we see when the Browns host the Tennessee Titans a week from Sunday in the season opener.

Let’s start with the offensive side of the football . . .

Baker Mayfield, Drew Stanton and Garrett Gilbert are your quarterbacks. Rookie David Blough was traded to Detroit Friday,

If Mayfield stays healthy, or as healthy as a National Football League quarterback can get these days, he would be the first Browns quarterback to start every game since Tim Couch did it all the way back in 2001.

Stanton will serve again as Mayfield’s spiritual advisor and backup in the event of a blowout one way or the other, or an injury. And because coach Freddie Kitchens wants three quarterbacks, Gilbert will be the emergency guy.

At running back, it will be the Nick Chubb show pretty much until Kareem Hunt emerges from his eight-game suspension. Darius Hilliard and training camp standout D’Ernest Johnson will provide solid backup. And it doesn’t look as though the Browns will utilize a fullback much this season, meaning Joe Kerridge is gone.

The wide receivers corps, once the weakest group on offense, is now the strongest. Very few teams can boast the likes of Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashard Higgins and Antonio Callaway.

Quality depth with Derrick Willies and Braxton Miller, both of whom will make it at least until Callaway is done serving a four-game suspension, emboldens Mayfield to spread the football around. Damion Ratley, who makes the final cut only because of his speed, is likely to leave when Callaway returns.

Miller makes it because of his versatility. It wouldn’t surprise to see Kitchens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken draw up a few gadget plays for the former Oho State quarterback.

Having a little trouble determining whether the Browns keep three or four tight ends. Going to gamble and go with four. David Njoku, who will get a lot of looks to take the pressure off the wideouts, and Demetrius Harris (because of his blocking) are locks.

Seth DeValve is the big gamble. Hampered by injuries during training camp, he finally emerged at H-back in the last two exhibitions and looks like a worthy replacement for Orson Charles. After flipping a coin, guessing 6-7, 280-pound Rico Gathers, picked up late on waivers, sneaks in ahead of Pharaoh Brown.

Now comes the weakest part of the offense: The line. Dorsey can’t be happy with the starting five of tackles Greg Robinson and Chris Hubbard, guards Joel Bitonio and Eric Kush and center JC Tretter.

It is not a solid unit with a pair of slow-footed tackles and a guard (Kush) who is nowhere near as good as his predecessor, Kevin Zeitler, who was shipped to the New York Giants in the deal that brought Beckham and defensive end Olivier Vernon to Cleveland.

Dorsey has already made one move, trading for Buffalo Bills reserve guard Wyatt Teller, and figures to make at least one more to strengthen this unit.  It shouldn’t take Teller long to supplant Kush. He will initially join Drew Forbes, Kendall Lamm and Austin Corbett on the bench.

If Dorsey is unsuccessful in fixing the problems along the line, it could be a long season for Mayfield and his skilled buddies.

Turning to the defense . . .

As questionable – trying to be kind here – as the offensive line is, their counterparts in the trenches on the other side of the ball constitute, as Kitchens correctly forecast in training camp, the strength of the team.

This unit is quick, fast, nasty, deep and determined to make certain the Browns’ defense will be looked upon much more respectfully than in the past. There are no apparent weaknesses.

Of the 19 sacks, yes 19, produced in the four-game exhibition season, 12 were recorded by this unit. And that was with the starting quartet watching most of the action from the sidelines.

The peerless Myles Garrett and Vernon will man the edges with Sheldon Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi solidifying the interior. Quality coming off the bench includes tackles Devaroe Lawrence (he had four of those sacks), Carl Davis and Daniel Ekuale and ends Chris Smith and Chad Thomas. Trevon Coley and Anthony Zettel do not make it.

The linebacking, which probably will be reduced from a scheme standpoint somewhat with defensive coordinator Steve Wilks favoring a 4-2-5 look, will be handled primarily by middle backer Joe Schobert and weakside backer Christian Kirksey.

When they switch to a 4-3 front, rookie Mack Wilson, who seems more comfortable in the middle, will take over on the strong side, taking advantage of his solid pass defense. Genard Avery is the Swiss Army knife, alternating between defensive end and outside linebacker. Adarius Taylor and rookie Sione Takitaki also make the cut.

The secondary will produce 10 who make the final trims: Cornerbacks Denzel Ward, Terrance Mitchell, T. J. Carrie, Phillip Gaines and rookie Greedy Williams; and safeties Morgan Burnett, Jermaine Whitehead, Eric Murray Damarious Randall and rookie Sheldrick Redwine, who led the club in tackles with 17 in the exhibitions.

With the strongest pass rush the Browns have had in years, the defensive backfield now won’t have to spend endless amounts of time covering receivers. Combined with Wilks’ love affair with blitzes, it should be an entertaining season on defense.

The keys to watch here are whether Ward has finally learned the proper technique of tackling, avoiding concussions, and how long it will take Williams to play well enough to warrant starter status.

Going to go off the ranch in predicting special teams with one notable exception, Charley Hughlett has no competition. He will be the long snapper. Can’t remember his last bad snap.

Maybe because I believe the new and vastly improved Browns want to start fresh in the kicking department, I see Dorsey and Kitchens settling on Austin Seibert as the new placekicker and Jamie Gillan as the new punter.

Seibert got off a rocky start in training camp, but the rookie in the last two exhibitions has more than justified Dorsey’s selecting him in the fifth round of the last college draft.

Gillan has all the physical tools to be more than just a punter. (He also seems to be a quick study of booting the ball inside the opponents’ 20 and learning to hold on all placements.) His big leg can also be used on kickoffs. There’s nothing like starting every opponent’s drive at or inside the 25-yard line.

The notion this will be direction the club goes is buttressed after Kitchens announced incumbents Greg Joseph and Britton Colquitt would kick in the final exhibition and then changed his mind and went with Seibert and Gillan.

So that’s three quarterbacks; three running backs; six wide receivers; four tight ends; nine offensive linemen; nine defensive linemen; six linebackers; 10 defensive backs, and three special teamers.

There will be 23 new faces: 10 on offense, 11 on defense and the two special teamers. All members of the draft class, except seventh-round pick cornerback Donnie Lewis Jr., make the squad.