Ball security required

If you're looking for a formula for the best way to knock off the Pittsburgh Steelers, stop right there. There is only one way. It's quite simple.

Don't turn the ball over. Do so and the odds of winning plunge significantly. It's so simple you'd think teams would preach holding on to the football when facing them. Get careless and pay the price. The Steelers tug and punch whenever the ball is exposed and succeed more often than not.

When the Browns and Steelers get together on the lakefront Sunday afternoon for the 145th time, ball security will be the prime factor in the outcome. The Steelers are the poster child of the National Football League in that category with 18 takeaways.

The Browns have played giveaway all season with 19, including four in the first game in Pittsburgh on a Thursday night in week two. Even then, they had a 22-19 lead midway through the fourth quarter before a strip sack and fumble return for a touchdown secured a 26-22 Steelers victory. 

The Pittsburgh offense posted only nine first downs, a paltry 55 yards on the ground, only 255 yards overall and turned the ball over twice. On the other side of the football, the Pittsburgh defense outscored the offense, setting the tone for the season.

That's why they are in contention, almost improbably, in the AFC North with a 6-3 record. Their hallmark is opportunism, making timely big plays when big plays are needed on defense and doing just enough to find ways to win despite an awful offense, whose statistics indicate they should be almost winless.

The Browns at 6-3 are right there with the Steelers mainly because of a terrific defense, though not nearly as opportunistic as the Steelers', and an offense with spare parts that's surprisingly productive in spite of losing their best running back for the season, both offensive tackles and now their QB1.

The Steelers can't hang with the Browns on defense with regard to the stunning numbers they have compiled this season. All they do is win because, well, because they make plays when you least suspect them. 

Just about all their victories are of the one-score variety. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, now in his 16th season in Pittsburgh, is 13-5 in one-score games in the last season and a half and a remarkable 48-22-2 in the last seven seasons. Two facts: He plays them close; and he wins. When it happens that often, that's not luck. That's good coaching. (He's also 26-6-1 against the Browns.)

This time, the Steelers will be without regular inside linebackers Kwon Alexander and Cole Holcomb who had strong games in week two. Both are now on injured reserve. Disgustingly healthy, however, are outside linebackers T. J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, who are looking to replicate their game two destruction.

Watt had a sack, four quarterback hits and a touchdown; following a strip sack Highsmith checked in with a sack, seven tackles, a quarterback hit and a pick-six touchdown. Both are extremely opportunistic players who make teams pay when they get careless with the football. They own half the Steelers 30 sacks.

This time, though, the Browns personnel on offense will be somewhat different than the first meeting. Geron Christian and Dawand Jones, will man the tackles. Jones made his NFL debut in the first game in place of Jack Conklin and did not embarrass himself against Watt. 

Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr. handle the ground game in the absence of Nick Chubb, whose devastating season-ending knee injury occurred in the early stages of the first game. And the air game has been placed in the hands of rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Thompson-Robinson said he has learned from his starting debut in week four  against Baltimore in relief of Deshaun Watson, a 38-3 disaster. "I know what it takes now to be an NFL quarterback," the brash rookie said. "I think I've taken that next step." The young might regret sharing that with the media.

(By the way, Tomlin is 25-5 against rookie quarterbacks.)

On defense, the Browns should have little trouble keeping Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett in check. The second-year player has thrown for only 1,600 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions. George Pickens and Diontae Johnson are his most reliable receivers, although tight end Pat Freiermuth is back off IR.

On offense, a warning. The Pittsburgh ground game has awakened after a slumbering start with 371 yards in the last two games led by Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who has picked up 189 of them. He's averaging 7.2 yards a pop.

Defensively, expect the Steelers to pay special attention to Myles Garrett, who has recorded just three sacks against Pittsburgh in the last eight games. They shut him down with only one solo tackle and a quarterback hit in week two. Overall he has only seven career sacks in 11 career games against them..

Watt, on the other hand, has 42 solo tackles, 16 sacks, two fumble recoveries and a touchdown in his 11 career games against Cleveland. 

This one, as are most Browns-Steelers games in the last few years, will be close and low-scoring. The Steelers have won four of the last five games. The Browns have won three of the last four in Cleveland.

It's so tempting to predict a repeat of the first game. But one of these times the Browns are way overdue to play a statement game against their archrival. Cant remember when they imposed their will and won an important game with so much on the line. Their comeback victory against Baltimore last Sunday proves it can be done. 

So with fingers crossed and a religious moment or two, the Browns turn the ball over just once and take it away twice. Dustin Hopkins continues his kicking mastery and DTR overcomes a bad early interception to lead the Browns to a second straight last-second victory. Make it:

Browns 19, Steelers 17