Finding a way

The stage is set. So, too, is the downside of a negative outcome when the Browns and Baltimore Ravens hook up for the second time in two weeks Sunday with the southern shore of Lake Erie as the backdrop this time.

When these rivals last met in Baltimore, the Ravens shoved the Browns precipitously close to the precipice of playoff elimination in what has become a quagmire in the AFC North, a division so tightly bunched, no one has clinched anything yet.

The Browns need to -- no. make that must -- win this one to have the remotest chance of making it consecutive seasons of playing football in mid-January, something they haven't accomplished since their rebirth in 1999.

A loss, for all practical purposes, closes the book on the 2021 season. It would take a confluence of circumstances that border on miraculous to change that, including winning the final four games. And the way they have played on offense the last two months, that ain't happenin'.

Despite everything that has emanated this week after the bye week, this is still the same team (again on offense) that limped into the bye. The quarterback, despite protestations to the contrary, is still hurting. A week of rest is not going to cure all the ills he feels on a daily basis.

He says he feels better. I don't buy it. He hasn't been the same quarterback since week two when his litany of injuries began. Looking good in practice against teammates does not translate to looking good when the opposition is trying to hurt you even more.

When the teams met in Baltimore, the Ravens stacked the box with eight and sometimes nine men, challenging Baker Mayfield to beat them. Even healthy, he has trouble beating the Ravens. The offense  produced just 10 points.

The defense kept giving Mayfield and his men the ball, picking off Lamar Jackson four times. The offense reciprocated with a lone field goal. And the offense that takes the field Sunday isn't any different. In fact, it might be worse, especially at tackle with a pro sophomore and a raw rookie anchoring the line, and only one healthy tight end in Austin Hooper.

Jedrick Wills Jr. has had a so-so season at left tackle. In the National Football League, so-so is not nearly good enough. And rookie James Hudson III, who flunked an earlier test this season, replaces Blake Hance at right tackle for Jack Conklin, out for the season with a torn patellar tendon.

The biggest challenge falls on the shoulders of head coach/playcaller Kevin Stefanski, who found moderate success with a multi-tight end look for at least half the plays he dials up. With Hooper the lone tight end, it sort of forces Stefanski to once again recognize the wide receivers and running backs.

That could mean a return of the rollouts, bootlegs, misdirections and screens that helped make Mayfield one of the most successful quarterbacks in the NFL the second half of last season. 

With the likes of Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins and running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt available, it opens up numerous possibilities for this stodgy and predictable offense to come alive again and help the defense for once.

And it would be refreshing to see Stefanski not give up early on the run game as he did against the Ravens the last time and pound away at the Baltimore defense no matter how many men park in the box. Becoming a one-dimensional offense is what the Ravens want.

Stefanski needs to call on and then rely on the ground game right out of the chute and stick with it. Establish ownership of the line of scrimmage. He and his staff have had plenty of time to come up with solutions and reestablish themselves as the league's best team on the ground.

Not only would it set the tone of the game, it would send a message to the defense, which has played lights out with one exception the last two months. Not taking advantage of opportunities created by the defense lately has frustrated that unit. It's the defense everyone expected to see when General Manager Andrew Berry crafted it out of the college draft and free agency.

It will be without middle linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. (COVID-19 reserve) and rookie cornerback Greg Newsome II (concussion) Sunday with veteran steady Malcolm Smith taking over for Walker and Greedy Williams filling in for Newsome opposite Denzel Ward.

Don't expect four more picks from Jackson. A more realistic number is one with an outside chance of two. It would behoove the Browns to pay particularly close attention to Ravens tight end Mark Andrews, Jackson's most targeted receiver this season. 

Blitzing Jackson with a large degree of frequency, much as Pittsburgh employed last Sunday in the victory over the Ravens to tighten the AFC North race, might not be a bad idea. The Steelers dropped Jackson seven times. raising his league-leading total to 37.

After crunching numbers, they show Jackson is the Baltimore offense. Between his throwing and running, either by design or scrambling, Jackson accounts for positive yardage on nearly 60% of the plays from scrimmage and just shy of 80% of the total yardage. Quite remarkable for one man.

The Ravens have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the league and yet find ways to win. That's why they are 8-4 at this juncture, while the Browns, who are having all sorts of trouble finding those ways, sit at 6-6 and at the crossroads.

It was after game six this season, a 37-14 pounding by the Arizona Cardinals at home, that Stefanski said, "We re a 3-3 team and played like it. We are very, very average and it's my responsibility to get it fixed." 

Now here we are at 6-6, playing like a very, very average 6-6 team. It's safe now to assume the head coach and his staff have failed to get it, whatever it is, fixed. The offense, which should be throwing haymakers, are instead throwing jabs. 

The Browns have a clear advantage in this one in that they have had a week to prepare, while injuries continue to bedevil the Ravens, On other other hand, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, clearly the smarter of the Harbaugh brothers, is 23-4 against the Browns (two of the losses in overtime) and 11-2 in Cleveland.

Like the last game, this one figures to be low scoring with the defenses playing major roles. This time, the Browns will have moderate success on the ground, but still encounter problems getting into the end zone. This is the kind of game where you can make a solid argument for either team to win. 

But it's the X-factor that will determine who wins. Somehow, some way, the Ravens, maybe because they do it so often against the Browns, will find a way to win. It could be a late interception, a fumble, a dumb play call, a record-breaking 67-yard Justin Tucker field goal with no time left on the clock, whatever. Until the Browns find a way to win, make it:

Ravens 22, Browns 20