Beware: Shootout ahead

When the Browns' 2021 schedule was initially released, I engaged in the fun game of predicting how many games they would win before training camp even began. Thus far, I have nailed the first three.

Gave game four against the Minnesota Vikings only a cursory thought before quickly marking it a victory even though the game was on the road. Didn't think the Vikings could survive the Browns' dangerous offensive machine.

Then the season began to unfold and those early thoughts about the outcome of Sunday's game have caused me to think my original thoughts might have been incorrect.

The Vikings are 1-2 so far, though, right? Well, yeah. But I can argue that with a degree or two of luck they could be unbeaten. The notion they are what their record says they are doesn't hold true here. Look deeper into the circumstances that brought about the 1-2 and you'll see danger lurking.

Opening game in Cincinnati: The Vikings battled back from 21-7 deficit with kicker Greg Joseph booting a 53-yard field goal with no time left to force overtime. In OT, the Bengals recovered a Dalvin Cook fumble inside the Cincinnati 40 and went on to kick a field goal with no time left in a 27-24 victory.

Game two in Arizona: The defense took a vacation as a shootout broke out with the Cardinals. It came down to the team owning the football last in the best position to win, That was the Vikings, who trailed, 34-33, before moving into position. With mere seconds left, Joseph, who earlier had kicked two field goals from 52 yards, was wide right from 37 yards.

Game three, home opener against Seattle: Another comeback, this time from a 17-7 deficit early in the second quarter. And then the defense showed up, slamming the door in a 30-17 victory. Seattle ran only 19 plays in the second half, The Vikings ran 45, setting up three more Joseph field goals. Head coach Mike Zimmer called it "the best offensive performance I've seen in the eight years I've been here."

That's the team the Browns take on Sunday up north. Two bad breaks created the difference between 1-2 and 3-0. This is a much better team, at least offensively, than at first believed.

We knew Kirk Cousins was a solid, not great, quarterback. He was steady. Rarely made mistakes. And now he, like Baker Mayfield, is surrounded by some very talented individuals. As a result, he has become a very good game manager.

The Vikings offense averages 25 first downs and 425 yards a game, nearly 300 through the air.  Cousins, who has yet to throw his first pick, has completed nearly 75% of his passes to a trio of wide receivers arguably believed to be one of the best in the National Football League in Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson and K. J. Osborn.

They catch 75% the passes thrown their way. Thielen is a third-down-converting machine. Jefferson is coming off a rookie-record 1,400-yard season. And Osborn has developed into a nice third option.

Throw Cook, one of the best all-around running backs in the league, into the mix along with a solid offensive line -- Cousins has been sacked only five times -- and you have a team that should look somewhat familiar to Browns fans.

It is the closest to a mirror image of the Browns on offense as any NFL team. And with good reason since Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski was the Vikes' offensive coordinator before deciding he wanted to be a head coach in Cleveland. That Minnesota offense has hardly changed.

A slow-healing ankle injury might keep Cook on the sidelines Sunday. No matter. Alexander Mattison filled in against Seattle last Sunday and responded with a 171-yard afternoon.

It definitely looks like a busy afternoon for the Cleveland secondary, a preview of what lies directly ahead with Justin Herbert awaiting in Los Angeles with the Chargers a week from Sunday and Kyler Murray and his high-octane Cardinals offense a week later back home.

The biggest difference between the Browns and Vikings on offense is how they score touchdowns. Each team has 10. The Vikings have eight through the air; the Browns have eight infantry style with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Another difference lies on defense where the Browns, at least statistically, hold the edge. Main reason for that is their dominance of the Chicago Bears last Sunday that skewed the numbers. And while the Minnesota offense averages 425 yards a game, the defense surrenders 410 a game. 

Think the Browns can book another nine sacks this week? Yeah, right. But don't look for four or five, either. The Minnesota offensive line is decidedly stronger than the Bears'. Myles Garrett and Co, will be brought down to earth. 

This one very well could turn into the shootout that erupted a couple of weeks ago in Arizona with neither team strong enough to stop the other. And with Cleveland defensive coordinator Joe Woods insisting in sticking with a zone defense for the most part, Cousins could have a field day.

Like the Arizona game, this one also could come down in the dwindling moments of the game to whichever team has the ball last in a close game, one that could be decided by a field goal. Which brings us full circle to the common thread in the Vikings' interesting journey this season. 

Greg Joseph kicked for the Browns after replacing Zane Gonzalez, who was cut after the first two games of the 2018 season. Made 17 of 20 field goals, but missed four extra points. He lost his job when the Browns drafted Austin Seibert in 2019. After making brief stops in Carolina, Tennessee and Tampa Bay, he signed with the Vikings earlier this year. 

Given their performances thus far, Joseph and the Browns' Chase McLaughlin, who has converted field goals of 52 and 57 yards this season and has yet to miss a kick, must be considered important players in the outcome of this game.

That said, all indications point to the shootout with both quarterbacks finding success and both defenses struggling in a point-producing bonanza enjoyable for those who hate defense. And yes, a field goal will decide it in the waning seconds of regulation. This time, Joseph's 37-yard attempt with his team down a point, will be . . . right down the middle. Make it: Vikings 36, Browns 34