Close with a cigar

Yep, it's another one of those games.

One week after writing a signature victory over the dangerous Tennessee Titans, along comes a statement game on the Browns' road to the postseason.

After proving 2020 is the season Browns Nation has achingly longed for since 1999, this hardscrabble football team is being challenged to do it all over again Monday night on national television. And not just against any ordinary National Football League opponent.

No, this time it is more meaningful. This time, it is more emotional. Much more. This time, history is a factor.

The Baltimore Ravens, a.k.a. the former Cleveland Browns from 1946-95, arrive for the most important game between these franchises (from a Cleveland viewpoint) since the rivalry commenced in 1999. 

They have met 43 times since then and not one of those games meant as much to the Browns as this one. No, this one has serious playoff implications. And for a change, the 7-5 Ravens enter this game playing the role of spoiler.

For the better part of the last two decades, the Ravens have lived among the National Football League elite, winning two Super Bowl titles along the way. The Browns. meanwhile, could only dream of Super Bowls as they slogged their way to annual residence in the AFC North cellar.

One would think they would get at least a little respect entering this one with their 9-3 record and four-game winning streak. Oddsmakers see it differently, however, installing the Browns as three-point underdogs at home.

Perhaps that's because the Ravens have lost to the Browns only 11 times over the years, just six times in Cleveland in 21 games. Perhaps it's because the Ravens opened up the season at home by walloping  the Browns, 38-6. Finally, and most important, perhaps it's because Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has never lost to them.

The Browns are thisclose to qualifying for the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. Getting that much closer with a victory against the Ravens would be doubly sweet simply because of who they are. That's something the fans understand.

The Ravens might not recognize the Browns Monday night. They are the antithesis of the team they crushed back in week one. That team was literally playing together for the first time under a rookie head coach with a battle plan that failed quickly. And then it got worse.

No minicamps, no OTAs, no exhibition games and a limited training camp added up to an embarrassing pro debut for Kevin Stefanski. The offense was offensive and not in a good way. The defense was offensive in every way. It couldn't get any worse. And it didn't. 

The Ravens will see a Cleveland offense that runs the football as well as any team in the NFL, makes fewer mistakes than the one they saw earlier, zealously protects its quarterback and whose head coach and playcaller dials up plays that best suit his quarterback's talents.

They will see a Cleveland defense that still makes plenty of mistakes, especially in the secondary. But they'll also see a defense that frequently takes the football away from opponents. They are tied for fourth in the league with 20 takeaways and rank among the league leaders in turnover ratio at +7.

The Ravens, on the other hand, have revamped their offensive line since the opener with Patrick Mekari replacing Matt Skura at center, Ben Powers at right guard, D. J. Fluker taking over at right tackle with Orlando Brown Jr. moving to left tackle, replacing the injured Ronnie Stanley. 

Mark Ingram, Jr., rookie J. K.Dobbins and Gus Edwards still handle the ground game for the Ravens, while tight end Mark Andrews and wide receivers Marquise Brown, Willie Snead IV and Miles Boykin are the chef targets in the passing game.

And it all works when Jackson roams freely, whether it's through the air or on the ground, especially the latter. Far more dangerous as a runner, he is well on the way to his second straight 1,000-yard season on the ground despite missing one game with COVID-19.

He is the runaway leader on the club with 669 rushing yards, nearly 200 yards better than Edwards and Dobbins. He is without question the most dangerous runner on the Ravens -- if not the entire NFL -- in the open field and has an innate knack for escaping the pocket.

Taking the ground game away from Jackson and forcing him to throw -- he averages only 187 yards a game that way with 17 touchdowns, seven picks and 24 sacks in 11 games -- is definitely the key to winning. It will be interesting to see what Browns defensive coordinator Joe Woods comes up with to neutralize him.

But it's on offense where the Browns hold the advantage over the Ravens in this one. They played from behind almost the entire time in the first game and never really got the ground game untracked to the point where it made the kind of impact it has made since.

Since that game, the Cleveland offense has scored 300 points (27.3 a game) and compiled 4,065 yards (369.4 a game) in winning nine of 11 games. Since Nick Chubb returned from a knee injury four (unbeaten) games ago, the ground game has averaged 173 yards a game. Therein lies the big challenge for the Browns. The Ravens limit opposing running backs to just 112 yards.

Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, who threw an early interception in the first game, has not thrown a pick in five straight games. Stefanski has designed an offense for him that incorporates multiple rollouts and bootlegs, often times away from the flow. It has helped sharpen his accuracy on the short- to mid-range throws.

He is not the quarterback the Baltimore defense, which has struggled recently with harassing opposing quarterbacks, saw way back in September. He is playing now with a muted confidence and infectious swagger that took a big hit in the season opener.

Mayfield, who has been sacked only 17 times this season, will face a Ravens pass rush that has recorded only six sacks in the last six games after compiling 22 in the first six games and is way overdue to bust out. 

Don't look for the Ravens in this one to replicate their huge start in the season opener. Instead, look for a close game most of the way with both teams playing relatively mistake-free football in the first half as the offenses take charge.

The Browns eventually find a way to take away Jackson's game-breaking ability and take advantage of a pair of second-half takeaways (fumble recovery and pick) to overcome a small early deficit as they make a statement and inch closer to the postseason. Make it: 

Browns 28, Ravens 24