Watch out for the upset

When the 2019 National Football League schedule was released last spring, most ardent Browns fans enjoyed the fun of predicting how their favorite team would fare in the 16-game grind.

The Browns were the rage back then with all the stars on offense and what was sold to fans as an improved defense. Remember when coach Freddie Kitchens called the defensive line the strength of the team?

The front half of the schedule was, as it turned out, predictably much tougher than the back half. The first eight opponents are currently a combined 69-37 (a .650 winning rate). The Browns managed just a 2-6 record against them.

The second half thus far has predictably been much more accommodating, the Browns winning four of the five games played. And the fifth was arguably winnable as they climbed to 6-7, within marginal striking distance of the postseason.

They fell to three division leaders or co-leaders (New England, San Francisco and Tennessee) along the trail and the second-strongest second-place team (Seattle). And they knocked off one leader (Baltimore unbelievingly) in the AFC North, where they stand at 3-1.

The NFC’s West Division has been a major problem with losses to the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco and Seattle. The league’s strongest (by far) division is 32-19 and the Arizona Cardinals own nearly half (nine) half of those losses.

That brings us to Sunday’s game out in the west Phoenix suburb of Glendale just off the 101, about 10 miles from where this piece is emanating. The Browns provide the opposition for the home finale of the Cardinals, who are nursing a six-game losing streak.

Home has not been friendly at all for rookie quarterback Kyler Murray and the 3-9-1 Cards, who have just one home victory – they had to score a season-high 34 points to beat Atlanta by a point two months ago – and a season-opening deadlock with Detroit.

While the offense averages 20 points a game at home, the defense surrenders 30 a game. The fewest points (23) allowed by that defense were produced by the Pittsburgh Steelers a week ago.

Murray, who succeeded Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield as the Heisman Trophy winner and overall No. 1 choice in the NFL college draft, has experienced an up and down season. The barely 5-10, 205 pounder has taken a beating this season, having been sacked a league-high 46 times, 15 in the last three games.

Rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury immediately installed Murray as his starter and he has responded by competing 64% of his passes for a shade more than 3,000 yards, 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Only one problem. He can’t keep up with the defense, which has belched far more overall points (374) than the offense scores (273).  To give you some idea of just how bad the Browns have been on offense this season, they have scored exactly one more point than the Cards.

The big difference is on defense where Cleveland has allowed 83 fewer points, or nearly 6½ a game. That very well could be the key to Sunday’s game, which promises to be more of an offensive battle.

One of the big storylines out here for this one is whether this will be wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald’s last game in his Hall of Fame career or last game as a Cardinal should he choose to move on to finish his career with a team better equipped to win a championship.

Kingsbury appears to have has diminished the 16-year veteran’s role in the offense. The snap counts are there, but he has been targeted just 90 times with 64 receptions, 669 yards (both team leaders) and three touchdowns. Half his receptions have produced first downs.

The 11-time Pro Bowler’s HOF résumé glistens with 1.367 receptions, 117 touchdowns and 52 yards shy of 17,000 yards. He has caught at least one pass in 240 consecutive games in a 247-game career. The only time he was blanked was by Buffalo on Oct. 31 in his rookie season (2004).

If this is going to be his final home game with the only team the well-respected wideout has ever played for, look for Kingsbury to get him heavily involved against a Cleveland defense that has trouble harassing opposing quarterbacks and covering receivers.

Murray also likes to throw to young receivers Christian Kirk, KeeSean Johnson, Pharoh Cooper and Andy Isabella. The latter, who played his high school ball at Mayfield High School in the Cleveland area, has had problems transitioning to the NFL after a spectacular collegiate career.

Complementing Murray, who has not run the football nearly as much as he did in college, are Kingsbury’s running back by committee featuring Kenyan Drake, David Johnson and Chase Edmonds.

There is little drop-off in talent, each quite capable of breaking a long run. It most likely will be more of Drake and Edmonds since Johnson, once heralded as one of the best young running backs in the NFL not that long ago, has been pretty much tied to the bench recently.

This game, in theory, should produce victory in the trenches on both sides of the ball for the Browns. The injury-riddled Cleveland defensive line catches a break against one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and should, again theoretically, produce a few sacks.

When linebackers and safeties – inside linebacker Jordan Hicks and free safety Budda Baker have combined for 238 tackles – lead the way for the Cards’ defense, a banner day for Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and the offensive line is almost inevitable.

The big question is how long it takes coach Freddie Kitchens to realize the path to victory, as it was last week against Cincinnati, is through the ground game. It took him an entire half before waking up.

If this is a slugfest, that favors the Browns as they seek to even the season record at 7-7. If for some reason, they arrive overconfident and not emotionally ready to play a game of football, as has been the case a few times this season, anything is possible.

Yes, the Browns are definitely the better team. And yes, the Cardinals have underperformed this season. It’s been a month since Murray has had a bust out game even though it was in a losing cause.

Somehow, though, I get the feeling Kitchens will find a way to lose as he has done in the past. Nothing more than a feeling, a hunch. Hope I’m wrong. I see the Arizona defense playing its best game of the season and Murray playing just well enough to spark the upset. Make it:

Cardinals 27, Browns 20