Brace for another scorefest
Defense? Forget it. That’s why they are 2-3.
The buzz saw that is the Bucs’ offense is sixth in the
league in average points per game at 28.2, which ordinarily would suggest their
record should be substantially better than it is.
That’s when you take a close look at the defense, or what
passes for defense, and discover that side of the football has hemorrhaged
nearly 35 points a game. That’s five touchdowns a game on average.
That, in theory, should be easy pickings for the Browns, who
could use a break on offense after scoring just 23 points in the last two
games. It also might be enough to break them out of their first-quarter
doldrums, which have produced just two field goals this season.
But what about the Cleveland defense, which disappeared last
Sunday at home against the Los Angeles Chargers? If the Chargers can plaster 38
points on the scoreboard, imagine what the high-powered Bucs offense can do
against a Cleveland defense beset with injuries.
Then factor in the home debut this season for Tampa Bay
quarterback Jameis Winston, who missed the first two home games while serving a
three-game suspension for a personal conduct violation.
Winston took over the offense midway through game four after
Ryan Fitzpatrick, who kept Winston’s seat warm while he was serving his suspension,
guided the Bucs to stunning victories over New Orleans and Super Bowl champion
Philadelphia and lost by only a field goal to Pittsburgh.
The veteran was so spectacular (78-of-111 for 1.230 yards,
11 touchdowns and four picks), Bucs coach Dirk Koetter stuck with him when
Winston returned. For one half, that is. Fitzpatrick returned to his normal self
in the first half of a brutal loss to Chicago and Winston took over.
It took him exactly one game to replicate Fitzpatrick’s outstanding
statistical contributions early on, completing 30 of his 41 passes for 395
yards and four touchdowns in a loss to Atlanta. That’s what the Cleveland
secondary can look forward to Sunday.
Winston has outstanding receivers in Mike Evans, Johnny
Manziel’s favorite receiver at Texas A&M, Chris Godwin, Adam Humphries and
DeSean Jackson, and tight ends O. J. Howard and Cameron Brate. They combine for
15 of the club’s 16 touchdowns through the air. Brate has only seven
receptions, but three arrived in the end zone.
So who does rookie cornerback Denzel Ward cover? Zone
coverage might be the best strategy against arguably one of the best receivers’
corps in the NFL. Or a combination of zone and man-to-man because straight-up
man and/or press coverage won’t work against this group.
Evans, Godwin and Jackson are probably the most dangerous,
which is two too many for a Cleveland secondary that is banged up and has been
exposed as vulnerable the last few weeks. If the pass rush, which has registered
only three sacks in the last two weeks, doesn’t improve, it will be a long afternoon
for the guys in the back end.
The Bucs bludgeon their opponents almost strictly through
the air. Their ground game is an afterthought. Just about everything about the
offense, which produces 450 yards a game and a hefty 7.2 yards per play, flows
through the forward pass.
Peyton Barber is the leading rusher for the Bucs, who run
about a third of the time, with a paltry 230 yards. Fitzpatrick scored the
club’s lone touchdown via the run. That tells you all you need to know.
The Browns lug a league-record 23-game road losing streak into
Raymond James Stadium. The best shot they have at ending the road misery right
there is to simply try to outscore the Bucs. Baker Mayfield will have plenty of
opportunities against a pass rush that has only 11 sacks.
Veteran defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, the ex-New York
Giant, owns five of those sacks and he’ll be squaring off mostly against rookie
offensive left tackle Desmond Harrison all afternoon in what in all probability
will ultimately be labeled an unfair fight.
The Bucs, however, have allowed opposing quarterbacks to
complete nearly 78% of their passes, an astounding statistic even by today’s
standards. Their secondary has picked off just one pass . . . one pass . . . in five games.
All of which fits perfectly into the Mayfield profile. He is
known for unerring accuracy when given time to throw, which has been problematic
the last two outings. If he has the time and the cooperation of his receivers
to actually catch the football when thrown their way, this one has all the
earmarks of a scoring bonanza.
The Bucs defense was so bad, it cost defensive coordinator
Mike Smith his job. Bucs fans probably wondered why it took so long to cashier
the former Atlanta Falcons head coach. Mark Duffner takes over the thankless
job of trying to make chicken soup out of chicken feces.
It will be interesting to see how the Browns attack the
porous Tampa Bay defense, which has allowed 356 yards a game to opposing
quarterbacks and just 84 yards a game on the ground.
The stodgy and boring ground game would have featured
bulldozing running back Carlos Hyde in this one, but the bruising running back was
traded unexpectedly to Jacksonville Friday for a fifth-round draft selection next
year.
That means reps that would have gone to Hyde will now be
shared by the more versatile and dangerous Duke Johnson Jr. and rookie running
back Nick Chubb, who has delivered big time in his limited opportunities.
That means coach Hue Jackson, who has promised more carries
for the rookie for a couple of weeks now, has to deliver on that promise. In
fact, Chubb could possibly become the lead back.
Up to now, it was believed he was relatively forgotten
because his pass blocking was a huge work in progress and threatened the safety
of his quarterback. His pass-catching ability was an unknown since he rarely
was thrown to at run-heavy Georgia. Fans will find out beginning Sunday.
With a wide receivers’ corps that is rookie laden and sort of
stitched together, it should not be too much to expect offensive coordinator
Todd Haley to give Johnson and Chubb more reps, especially now that Hyde is
headed to Florida.
Unfortunately, I do not see the stubborn Haley changing the
script much. The result will be a pass-heavy shootout that delights fans and
television viewers, but will drive Cleveland defensive coordinator Gregg
Williams nuts.
One other possibility: Both quarterbacks are also threats to
run, which will add to the entertainment value should the respective pass rushes
somehow find ways to cause them to leave the pocket.
Unlike last Sunday, this one could be determined by which
team has the stronger second half. The Browns manage to hang in there, score
some first-half points and stay with the Bucs through the better part of three
quarters before fading in the final 15 minutes. Make it:
Buccaneers 38, Browns
24
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