Taming unpredictability
Finally, a breather on the schedule for the Browns. Or is
it?
After a cursory look at the 1-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it is
very easy to immediately conclude they are the third straight soft spot in this
portion of Cleveland’s 2014 schedule.
First, it was the Jacksonville Jaguars and we all know how
pitifully and shockingly that one ended a few weeks ago. Then came the Oakland
Raiders and the Browns had to scramble to win that one.
The Buccaneers roll into Cleveland for a Sunday date with
the Browns on the heels of a season chock full of question marks.
For example, are they the team that upset the Pittsburgh
Steelers – in Pittsburgh, no less – in week four? Or the team that took New
Orleans and Minnesota to overtime before losing?
Are they the team that surrendered 165 points during a
four-game stretch? Or the team that was blistered for 104 points in losses to
Atlanta and Baltimore? Maybe the team that gave up 119 points in the other five
games?
To say they are unpredictable would be an understatement.
And if new coach Lovie Smith is honest, all he can do when asked what he
expects from his team is give an I-have-no-idea shrug.
What he does know is his offense struggles. In five of the
seven games, the Tampa Bay attack scored in the teens. It owns the football an
average of just 27 minutes a game, converting only a third of its third-down
opportunities.
The Bucs also have one of the National Football League’s
worst running games, which must frustrate Smith, a run-first coach during his
long tenure with the Chicago Bears.
All he has is ex-Brown Bobby Rainey and rookie Charles Sims,
who is expected to be activated for the game after spending the first half of
the season mending an ankle injury suffered in the exhibition season.
Running against an injury-ravaged Cleveland run defense that
ranks near the bottom of the league might be the panacea the Bucs need. It
certainly helped the Jaguars and Raiders, who flourished on the ground after
entering their games against the Browns with weak running games.
Mike Glennon will open at quarterback for the Bucs, but
he’ll be on a short leash with Josh McCown healthy and ready to go after
suffering a thumb injury in week three. The Bucs’ offense racked up just 100 total
yards in the first three quarters in the overtime loss last week to Minnesota.
Favorite targets for Glennon and/or McCown are veteran
Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans, Johnny Manziel’s favorite receiver at
Texas A&M the last two collegiate seasons. They have combined for 51
catches, 693 yards and four touchdowns.
The Cleveland secondary, which played well against the
Raiders despite getting little help from the pass rush, most likely will be
tested heavily unless the Bucs find success with the ground game.
But it’s the Cleveland offense that holds the key to this game.
The Bucs have surrendered 124 yards a game against the run. That’s just as bad
as Jacksonville and Oakland. And we all saw how poor the Cleveland running game
was against them.
Unless the offensive line wakes up from its snooze the last
two games, it looks as though Brian Hoyer again will have to shoulder the major
burden for the offense. And he’ll be working without tight end Jordan Cameron,
one of his favorite targets, out with a concussion.
The Tampa Bay secondary yields 295 yards a game, which might
give Cleveland offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan some pause. With a
struggling offensive line, it’s not outside the realm of possibility he might
turn Hoyer loose.
That, of course, would go against his offensive philosophy,
which is run the ball first to set up the pass. Considering how often his team
is in third-and-long situations, he might at least be thinking of throwing more
often to create more second- and third-and-short situations.
The Cleveland offense has been horrible on third downs this
season, converting only 28 times in 90 attempts, a 31% ratio. It is only
14-of-52 (27%) in the last four games. Figures like that contribute to a lot of
punts and a tired defense in the latter stages of games.
Knowing that, look for the Bucs’ defense to try and create
those third-and-longs for the Browns by stacking the box on first and second
down. How effectively they can do that depends on how well their four-man front
neutralizes Cleveland’s offensive line.
To that end, also look for Shanahan to employ a lot of
two-tight-end sets with Gary Barnidge and Jim Dray in an attempt to get back to
the running game that was so successful in the first five games.
Key matchup is Browns guard John Greco and center Nick
McDonald against defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, one of the few bright spots on
the Bucs’ defense. McCoy is quick, strong and a play disturber. If Greco and
McDonald can handle McCoy, look for the strong Cleveland running game to make
some noise.
Hints out of Berea suggest Isaiah Crowell, who has fallen
out of favor with the coaching staff because of ball-security (read: fumbles)
problem, will get more touches Sunday.
These two teams have not met that often over the years. After
losing the first five games of this series against the original Browns, the
Bucs have rattled off three straight victories against the new Browns. But
those Bucs played at a much higher level than the current version. The 2002
team, for instance, won the Super Bowl and the 2010 version finished 10-6.
So which Tampa Bay team will show up Sunday? Better yet,
which Cleveland team will show up? The way these teams have played lately, it
wouldn’t surprise to see a repeat of last Sunday’s ineptitude bowl against
Oakland.
This one is likely to be a defensive struggle (offensive inefficiency?)
with a multitude of punts, field position playing a strong role in the outcome.
After a low-scoring first half (6-3 Cleveland), a strong second half blunts
Tampa Bay’s attempt for an upset and improves the Browns’ home record to 4-1
and season record to 5-3 at the halfway point of the season. Make it:
Browns 19, Buccaneers 7