The wonderful world of what if . . .
Let’s get this out of the way right now. There is no way the
Browns will defeat the New England Patriots Sunday. Absolutely no way.
There. The prediction right up front. Final score to come.
No messing around. Get right to the point and be done with
it.
Why screw around with the what ifs?
What if the Browns play their best game of the season on
both sides of the ball and on special teams? What if Jason Campbell completes
every pass he throws? What if Tom Brady is injured in the first quarter of the
game? What if Bill Belichick coaches like he did in Cleveland two decades ago?
What if . . . what if . . . what if.
Normally, you can what if your way into just about anything.
But the world of what if is a fantasy world, a dream world
It’s not going to happen.
Most fans know that. They don’t want to think about what’s
going to happen in Foxboro, Mass., Sunday, but they are also realists. They
realize the Patriots are an infinitely better football team than the Browns.
They just hope the Pats show some mercy.
There is a monstrous chasm that separates the talent bases
of the teams. The Patriots’ goal every season is go win the Super Bowl. Not get
to the Super Bowl. Win it.
The Browns’ goal is to get better any way they can. Game by
game, quarter by quarter, play by play. Just play better than the last game.
Under Belichick, the Pats are perennial contenders. Hard to
do when you constantly pick at the bottom of each round in the college football
draft. Unless, of course, you employ someone who selects wisely. And they do.
The Browns, on the other hand, are perennial residents of
the AFC North basement. That’s because no one is bad enough to challenge them.
The Baltimores, Cincinnatis and Pittsburghs of the professional football world
know how to right a sinking ship.
Cleveland just ambles along each National Football League
season, showing up when and where the schedule says it should.
The uniforms remain the same, although that reportedly will
change sometime in the near future. The players come and go. Front offices come
and go. But the results, like the uniforms, remain the same.
But I digress.
The game Sunday will be a study in contrasts. One team
headed inexorably toward yet another postseason. The other headed inexorably
toward what is hoped to be a painless conclusion to a miserable season.
The Patriots, unbeaten in six home games this season,
against the Browns, a team that has won only once in five road games. One team
with a future Hall of Fame quarterback against a team that might not know who
will open under center until the day of the game.
Will it be ugly? Maybe. Depends solely on Belichick and how
benevolent he feels between the hours of 1 o’clock and 4 o’clock.
Does he still have an affinity for Cleveland because that’s
where he got his head coaching start? Or does he remember the last time these
two teams met?
The date was Nov. 7, 2010 when the Browns welcomed the Pats
to Cleveland Browns Stadium and proceeded to humiliate them, 34-14.
Peyton Hillis ran for 184 (of the Browns’ 230) yards and a
couple of touchdowns, Colt McCoy managed the game nicely (14-of-19 for 174
yards and a touchdown with no picks) and the defense created three turnovers.
Brady threw for a pedestrian (for him) 224 yards and a pair
of touchdowns to Aaron Hernandez, now incarcerated in a Connecticut jail,
awaiting trial on murder charges.
The victory proved sweet revenge for Browns coach Eric
Mangini, whose relationship with Belichick soured over Spygate. The Browns went
on to win just two games the rest of what turned out to be Mangini’s last season
in Cleveland, and finished 5-11.
The loss was New England’s second and last setback in the
regular season. The Patriots finished 14-2 and went on to win eight straight
games following the Cleveland loss before falling to the New York Jets in the
division playoffs.
The current Patriots, who have scored 27 or more points in
six of the last seven games, have played remarkable comeback football after
sluggish starts in their last two games against Denver and Houston.
They overcame a 24-0 halftime deficit against the Broncos to
win, 34-31, in overtime. They knocked off the Texans by the same score in
regulation after trailing, 17-7 at the half. That’s just seven points in the
first half of those games and 61 the rest of the way. Brady completed nearly 70% of his passes in those victories.
The Browns this season are much better in the first half
than in the final 30 minutes. They’ve scored 135 of their 231 points (or 58.4%)
in the first half and struggled with only 96 (or 41.6%) in the second half.
Their best quarter by far is the second with 88 points (or 38.1% of their overall
scoring).
So does that give the Browns some hope to at least stay in
the game for the first 30 minutes? Uh, no. Don’t forget about the difference in talent, especially in
the passing game.
The receivers the Cleveland secondary will have to
particularly mindful of are tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Julian
Edelman, who was a quarterback in his collegiate days at Kent State.
Gronkowski, who missed the first six games of the season following
back surgery, has caught a touchdown pass in his last four games, while
Edelman, who has become Brady’s second-favorite receiver, has 18 receptions for
211 yards and a pair of scores the last two games.
Where the Browns might have a slight advantage is on the
line of scrimmage when the Pats have the ball. Brady is not as mobile as he
used to be. If the Browns’ pass rush, AWOL the last three games, ever
reappears, the New England offensive line, which has given up 31 sacks, is
vulnerable.
As for Josh Gordon, a third straight 200-yard game falls
into the same category as the Browns’ chances of winning this game. If he gets
100, consider that a victory of sorts. You can bet he and tight end Jordan
Cameron will be accorded close attention wherever they go. And since the Browns
have no other receivers who worry opposing offenses, it’s time for the running
game to finally step up. (Just kidding.)
Hard to believe, but the Browns lead the all-time series,
13-9, against New England with most of those victories (11) recorded by the old
Cleveland Browns prior to the resurrection in 1999.
Suffice it so say, the Cleveland victory total against the Patriots
will stay frozen after Sunday’s get together. The Pats get their revenge for
2010. Make it:
Patriots 37, Browns 10
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