Fearless predictions

Predicting the future is a dangerous venture in and of itself. That said, I plunge ahead fearlessly and forecast what I see happening on the sports scene with regard to expectations of Cleveland sports fans.

I predict . . .

* Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel will resign midway through the summer and be replaced on an interim basis by assistant head coach Luke Fickell.

In order to bring no further shame to the school, Tressel will step down before the administration is forced to do what it should have done when it was discovered he lied to the NCAA regarding assorted violations. Fire him. Tennessee basketball coach Bruce Pearl lost his job for just those reasons.

Tressel was a great coach and recruiter. He is still a great coach and recruiter. But when further facts emerge regarding illegalities in the OSU football program, he will have no other choice. The pressure will increase steadily. Current allegations of more improprieties by former Buckeyes wide receiver Ray Small merely adds to the mounting charges against Tressel.

The coach’s supporters argue that Small is just getting back at the coach after the former Glenville High School star marched into and out of his doghouse for a couple of years. That might be the case, but no one is coming out and calling Small a liar. No one is refuting his claims.

Fickell, who already has been tapped by the school to coach the first five games of the season due to Tressel’s suspension for NCAA violations, will coach the entire season as a result of his boss’ resignation.

That will open the door for Urban Meyer to return to his Buckeye roots. Born in Toledo. Raised in Ashtabula. Graduated from St. John High School there. Played at the University of Cincinnati. Began his coaching career at Ohio State in the late 1980s as an assistant for two seasons under Earle Bruce, handling tight ends and wide receivers

Went on to successful head coaching stints at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida. His 104-23 record speaks for itself. So does his 7-1 record in bowl games. That includes a couple of BCS championship game victories, including a trouncing of the Buckeyes in the 2007 title game.

He’s got the right DNA to be the head coach at OSU. Born and bred in Ohio. Coached as an assistant at OSU. Knows the importance of Buckeye football. Is a terrific recruiter.

Sound familiar? A resume, to a large degree, that mirrors the one Tressel brought to Columbus.

Sure, Meyer resigned from his job last December, citing health reasons. But there’s nothing like a year away from the game to regain that health and feed that insatiable appetite to coach. Once a coach, always a coach.

* Jim Thome will finish his career with the Indians. If . . .

Huh? How’s that? Are you nuts?

Wait. Let me finish.

The Indians are off to a hot start. There are no apparent signs that this is a big tease. So if – and that’s the big if – the Indians continue to play good baseball well into July, they’re going to need some help in the stretch run.

And that’s where Thome, who left Cleveland for Philadelphia in 2003 under extremely emotional circumstances, comes into focus. Sharp focus.

The Indians could clearly use another left-handed power bat. And Thome, who turns 41 in late August, still has plenty of pop left in his bat. Right now, he’s stuck playing in Minnesota. The Twins aren’t going anywhere this season. In fact, they occupy the Indians’ normal basement residence in the AL Central.

He has been used sparingly this season with just 79 at-bats. He has four home runs and 11 runs batted in limited play. He’s seven home runs shy of 600, a number that will almost certainly qualify him for serious Hall of Fame consideration.

If Thome achieves HOF status, which cap would he choose for his induction? Only one should be considered.

So why not bring him back to where it began? Bring him back to the Indians, for whom he has slugged 334 of his 593 home runs? It shouldn’t be that difficult for the Indians to part with a lower minor-league prospect for the aging slugger.

First of all, it would be a great public relations move. The fans would be forgiving and welcome him back warmly. And what a joy it would be for Thome and Cleveland to celebrate home run No. 600.

Cleveland is where it started for Thome. That’s where it should conclude. There isn’t a compelling reason to not at least consider the move.

* The National Football League will play a 16-game schedule for the foreseeable future.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell insists otherwise, citing his conversations with fans around the country that they favor an 18-game schedule.

Speaking to season-ticket holders of the Tennessee Titans recently, the commish said, “We do think (the 18-game schedule) is attractive to season-ticket holders. I hear that all the time from our season-ticket holders. We have not abandoned our position on that. We do think it is the right thing for the game. It improved the quality of what we do and it improves the value for you as season-ticket holders. . . .”

The players do not want to play two more games. And just about every poll show the fans are not in favor of an 18-game schedule. They’re more in favor of not charging full price for two exhibition games. Who can blame them?

The longer schedule is still on the negotiation table as the league and players attempt to hammer out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The players are adamant the 18-game schedule is a non-starter.

Goodell and his owner buddies are going to lose this one.

* Call it a hunch, but the NFL stalemate will last until the beginning of August. That’s when one side, most likely the owners, will cave and the season will begin the week of Sept. 22-25.

There’s way too much money to lose if this idiocy continues much further. The two sides cannot afford to alienate the public much more with their petty carping.

Somehow, someone will come up with a solution just when everyone thinks the season will be blown up. Not sure who it will be or what solution will satisfy both sides. But it’ll happen.

I still say lock out the attorneys, then put representatives from both sides in a room and tell them they’re not coming out until an agreement is reached. Bring your PJs and toothbrushes because you’re not going anywhere until you shake hands on an accord.

Dream on

It must be a dream. No other explanation for it.

It’s a dream every Cleveland baseball fan dreams. The Indians are the best team in baseball. Just about everything goes right.

They win at home as no Indians team has done in the last 100-plus seasons. Split on the road. The formula for teams that usually wind up in the postseason.

Drama drips from just about every victory. Progressive Field is no longer referred to jokingly as Regressive Field.

The dream continues.

The pitching is not spectacular. Just steady. The hitting is not spectacular. Just downright clutch. The fielding is not spectacular. Just . . . well, just like the pitching, steady.

Runs are not hard to come by. Pitchers have learned that strike one on the first pitch to a batter elevates their chances of success. The Indians don’t beat themselves with silly fundamental mistakes. The days of giving the opposition four and five outs an inning are over.

Fans in this dream are slow to realize that this Indians team, the one many experts predicted for a fourth-place finish in the American League’s Central Division, is better than they thought. Way better.

Then I wake up from that dream every morning and get the newspaper. Turn immediately to the baseball standings. Hasn’t been that way for a few years. The team that lost to Boston in the playoffs a few years ago has been broken up. No reason the check those standings.

Until now. And now, I can’t wait.

Now, that dream morphs into reality. The standings say so. Best record in baseball.

The little team that couldn’t, the little team that emerged from spring training with the minutest hope of playing beyond September, the little team the world of baseball is just discovering, is no longer the little team.

It clearly has caught just about everyone’s attention. It’s a great story and Monday night, the rest of the nation found out – again in dramatic fashion – just why the Cleveland Indians have won two of every three games. Found out why this is no fluke. Found out that something magical is happening.

ESPN’s cameras were there to find out Monday night. ESPN, when not trolling with the glitterati of the sports world, jumps on bandwagons. It took nearly two months of the season, but the network finally discovered what was happening in Cleveland.

First national exposure for the Indians, who have become the feel-good story of the 2011 season.

ESPN loves drama. And the Indians delivered Monday night. The no-name team picked up a little national love with its umpteenth last-at-bat, come-from-behind victory, this time over the network’s beloved Boston Red Sox.

They’re doing it on offense with the likes of Michael Brantley, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jack Hannahan, Orlando Cabrera, Shelley Duncan, newcomer Travis Buck and Matt LaPorta, a pitching staff minus a left-handed starter and a manager who has never managed a winning team in the majors.

They’re doing it even though two of their best hitters have yet to hit as expected. Shin-Soo Choo is showing signs of emerging, but Carlos Santana continues to flirt with the Mendoza line.

And they’re doing it despite injuries to a pair of offensive threats, Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore.

So why is this all happening? Let’s start with the pitching staff. No one figured Justin Masterson, John Tomlin, Carlos Carrasco, Fausto Carmona and whoever at No. 5 would perform so well.

Thirty quality starts in 45 opportunities. Fewest runs (153) allowed. Second-fewest walks. Third in batting average against. Only 31 opposition home runs.

The only weakness? Twelfth in strikeouts. Cleveland pitchers pitch to contact. And the defense backs them up. Only 11 unearned runs. The Indians rank second in the league in defense with only 28 errors.

Best bullpen in the American League. With the likes of Tony Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, Tony Sipp and closer Chris Perez, all the starters have to do is get to the seventh inning with the lead and the door slamming begins.

On offense, Cleveland leads the league in hitting, hitting with runners in scoring position, and is second in on-base percentage and OPS. Only the New York Yankees have scored more runs.

Asdrubal no longer is a funny-sounding first name. Right now, he just might be the best all-around shortstop in the American League.

Hafner, when healthy, hasn’t hit like this in three years. Same with Sizemore. But they can’t stay healthy. It’s the resourcefulness of this team that seems to have overcome those obstacles.

Manager Manny Acta is pushing all the right buttons and pulling all the right strings. And he’s making a lot of Indians fans giddy in the process.

How much longer will this continue? Or will it continue? Skeptics will say this is just another Cleveland tease. Big buildup for a bigger letdown. It won’t last.

Maybe. Maybe not.

So if this is a dream, then I hope it doesn’t stop.

Fact checking 101

For a head coach in the National Football League, Pat Shurmur of the Browns is a lousy historian. He needs to check facts before he speaks.

For example, he said the following about what the Browns did in the college draft when speaking to the Pro Football Hall of Fame Club luncheon crowd recently in Canton:

“I think we did great. I don’t care what anybody says. But we obviously started off . . . by making a historic trade, probably one of the greatest in draft history when we traded with the Falcons . . . because we felt we needed help in areas and based on the talent, based on what other teams around us were going to do and based on what we needed, we felt that was the perfect thing to do.”

He was referring, of course, to the five picks the Browns received from Atlanta that allowed the Falcons to move up to the sixth slot in the first round and draft wide receiver Julio Jones.

First of all, in the annals of draft trades, the greatness of this one doesn’t even come close, although greatness is nothing more than a state of mind. Probably one of the greatest in draft history? Probably not.

That one still belongs to the Los Angeles Rams, who sent 11 players (a veritable football team) to the fledgling Dallas Texans for linebacker Les Richter in 1952. Richter, who played nine seasons, was a Pro Bowler in his first eight campaigns. He will be inducted posthumously into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in August.

And when it comes to historic trades, the Browns and Baltimore Colts were in the middle of that one. Cleveland coach Paul Brown shipped 10 players to the Colts following the 1953 draft in exchange for five players. Included in the Cleveland group headed to Baltimore were cornerbacks (and native Clevelanders) Don Shula and Carl Taseff, placekicker Bert Rechichar and linebacker Art Spinney.

The Browns received linebacker Tom Catlin, defensive tackle Don Colo, guard Herschel Forester, cornerback John Petitbon and offensive tackle Mike McCormack. Spinney, Rechichar, Colo and McCormack became Pro Bowlers. McCormack and Shula wound up in the HOF.

Then, of course, there was the 1999 brain cramp by New Orleans coach Mike Ditka, who gave up his entire draft (six picks) in exchange for running back Ricky Williams. And we all know how that one turned out.

Historic? Great? Hardly.

However, it does appear as though Shurmur has discovered that exaggeration is a vital chapter in the coachspeak notebook. Hyperbole, thy name is Shurmur.

Tick tock, tick tock

Thinking out loud . . .

Correct me if I’m wrong but weren’t we led to believe the Browns would grab a quarterback in the recent college football draft? You know, someone who could come in, learn and then become Colt McCoy’s understudy instead of Seneca Wallace and Jake Delhomme.

Strictly a guess here, but they targeted Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi at the beginning of the fifth round. However, Kansas City sneaked in and snagged him two picks earlier.

Would have made a nice story, too, had he been there for the Browns. The lean kid from Lake Catholic High School coming back to play for the hometown team. Too bad they waited so long.

Stanzi is the kind of quarterback who would fit nicely into a West Coast offense. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, keeps mistakes at a minimum and plays the game very well from the neck up. The Chiefs stole one from the Browns. . . .

What are the odds Wallace and Delhomme will be on the roster when (if?) the season launches? Something like even money. Unless Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert Jr. dip into the free-agent market, that’s what it’ll look like on opening day.

There are some intriguing names out there once this labor mess disappears. Trent Edwards, Chad Pennington, Troy Smith, Brodie Croyle, Kerry Collins and Tarvaris Jackson head the list. Brady Quinn is there, too, but . . . oh, never mind. One very well could replace Delhomme on the roster. . . .

What will it take for Heckert to see he’s got a problem on the right side of his offensive line? Pork Chop Womack and Tony Pashos are getting a little long in the tooth and Pashos is an injury waiting to happen. For a big guy, he pays too many visits to injured reserve.

Billy Yates filled in nicely at right guard last season when Womack moved over after Pashos went down again. But Yates then pulled a Pashos and hit IR. Womack moved back inside and John St. Clair, the turnstile, took over at right tackle. No wonder Peyton Hillis’ numbers decreased significantly the second half of the season.

Shaun Lauvao is still an unknown quantity because of injuries and rookie Jason Pinkston has never played on the right side. He’s projected as a candidate for right guard. . . .

If the Browns don’t place top draft choice Phil Taylor on a weight-control program, they’re making a big mistake. The big guy from Baylor has trouble pushing himself away from the dining table. Failing to maintain his weight was one of the factors that led to his benching at (and ultimate departure from) Penn State. . . .

It’ll be interesting to see if the Browns at least tinker with the idea of playing fourth-round pick Owen Marecic on defense at some time. After all, he played fullback and middle linebacker for coach Jim Harbaugh at Stanford.

The Browns obviously see him as a fullback in the NFL, but if they decide to keep Lawrence Vickers, moving Marecic to defense wouldn’t be out of the question. He’s got the perfect body type and size (6-1, 245 pounds) to be an MLB in the 4-3.

About that draft . . .

Back from yet another furlough . . .

Let’s see . . . where were we . . . oh yeah, the National Football League draft. What the Browns did and how it impacts on the future.

Getting right to the point. I did not like what General Manager Tom Heckert Jr. did. Except for one pick, I think he could have done a whole lot better, considering the cache he received from Atlanta in the first-round trade that landed five picks.

A statement by Browns President Mike Holmgren following the draft caught my attention.

“As you can see, we placed a priority on filling the roster a little bit without reaching, which is the trick of the draft,” he said. “I think these guys (Heckert and coach Pat Shurmur) did a marvelous job.”

First of all, what else did you expect him to say? He’s not going to come out and say something like: “Actually, I thought they could have done a lot better job considering where we drafted. And I was disappointed we didn’t draft a quarterback.”

So take what Holmgren says with massive doses of salt grains, understand that’s what he had to say and then move on. Focus instead on one part of that statement. The part about reaching.

If drafting Phil Taylor, an overweight boom-or-bust selection, in the first round isn’t reaching, then let’s redefine the term. At best, Taylor is a second-rounder. How he got up that high on the Browns’ board will always remain a mystery.

Reportedly, Heckert was afraid Philadelphia targeted Taylor and moved up five notches to head off that move. He was so determined to beef up the defensive line, he failed to take notice of a weaker area.

Last season, the Cleveland defense played reasonably well. It was the offense that caused most of the late-season problems. Because of the popgun Cleveland attack, the defense found itself on the field far more than it should have been.

Time and again, the offense failed to sustain drives. The league finally figured out how to stop Peyton Hillis and the Browns’ offense crumbled. So, too, did the defense, which clearly ran out of gas.

Where the Browns needed the most help was on offense, most notably the line. There is a considerable weakness on the right side. Large question marks reside at right guard and right tackle. Drafting a water buffalo like Taylor does not solve that problem.

And there was a solution to the problem still on the board. Wisconsin offensive tackle Gabe Carimi was there when Heckert chose the wrong side of the trenches to fortify. The Chicago Bears wisely took Carimi a few picks later.

All the good defensive linemen worthy of being picked in the first round were gone by the time the time the Browns were on the clock. Instead of drafting the best player available, Heckert drafted for need.

Taylor and Carimi will be plugged into the starting lineups as rookies, but Carimi is a much more polished and NFL-ready player. Hazarding a guess here. Carimi, much higher ranked at his position than Taylor was at his, will land in the Pro Bowl. Taylor is a big (literally and otherwise) maybe.

Moving on to the second round and more reaches. Heckert stayed with the defensive line and took Jabaal Sheard, then moved to fortify the weak wide receivers corps with Greg Little. Two more mistakes.

Why a defensive end? The Browns already have Matt Roth Robaire Smith, Jayme Mitchell and Marcus Benard at that position and Chris Gocong played the position in college. There were other viable DEs available in the later rounds.

If Heckert had picked Carimi, he could have addressed the defensive line with his first pick in the second round with Oregon State tackle Stephen Paea, a shorter and much more productive version of Taylor. The Bears got him, too.

And in Little, he selected someone who is relatively new to the position. Making matters worse is the North Carolina wideout had to sit out the entire 2010 season after being suspended for accepting gifts and free trips in violation of NCAA rules.

Combine inexperience with rust and you have a prescription for potential disaster. Especially when you consider two more productive receivers were available at the time – Randall Cobb (grabbed later by Green Bay) and Leonard Hankerson (Washington in the third round).

All Hankerson did at Miami last season was catch 13 touchdown passes and conjure up memories of former Hurricanes greats Andre Johnson, Eddie Brown and Michael Irvin.

Wonder what Heckert saw in Little. Perhaps it was his well-chiseled 6-3, 230-pound frame. Looks like a body builder. (Looks like Tarzan; plays like Jane?) Has the body type of Baltimore receiver Anquan Boldin. But Boldin was a finished product when he arrived in the NFL. Big difference.

It would be extremely surprising if Little is a productive member of the receiving corps this season.

In the end, I’d much rather see Carimi, Paea and Hankerson or Cobb in the Seal Brown and Orange than the troika Heckert selected.

All three players he did select also arrive with red flags, i.e. character issues, having gotten into trouble off the field. We all know Little’s was of the non-violent variety. Not so Sheard and Taylor.

Sheard tossed a guy through a plate glass door in an art gallery last July and had to be pepper sprayed. Taylor began his collegiate career at Penn State and was eventually kicked off the team by coach Joe Paterno, weight gain and participating in a brawl at an on-campus pool party playing major roles.

Now does that mean they’ll encounter problems in the NFL? Not necessarily, but it makes one wonder why Heckert would choose someone with a red flag. Apparently, he likes bad boys.

OK, enough of the negativism. On to the fourth round and some positivism.

Can understand the selection of Southern California tight end Jordan Cameron (not to be confused with California defensive lineman Cameron Jordan). Cameron is as raw as they come. Ground chuck or filet mignon? He’s a basketball player trying to become a football player. Maybe Heckert saw a little Antonio Gates in him.

Now comes Heckert’s best pick. Fullback Owen Marecic will pay more dividends in 2011 (assuming there’s a season) than any of the GM’s selections. You can say buh-bye to Lawrence Vickers.

Marecic is smart, hard-nosed, football-savvy player who plays the game the right way. He will be the perfect complement to Hillis and Montario Hardesty. Too bad it took four rounds before Heckert made a solid pick.

Rounding out the draft, cornerback Buster Skrine (love the name), guard Jason Pinkston and strong safety Eric Hagg are nothing more than roster fodder and possible candidates for special teams.

Other experts have graded this draft anywhere from a solid A to no worse than a B-. Sorry, I don’t see it that way. This one rates a C+ leaning toward a straight C.

Playing a game of if

If I’m Browns General Manager Tom Heckert Jr., I would . . .

* Curse my former coach for winning too many games last season and dropping to the sixth slot in the first round of the National Football League’s college draft next week.

That’s right. If Eric Mangini had lost just one more game, the Browns would have tied Denver, Buffalo and Cincinnati at 4-12 and sneaked ahead of 5-11 Arizona into the top five, maybe as high as two. And in this year’s draft, that’s vital.

That’s because there are only four elite players there for the picking. The kind of players who can come in right away and not only make the team, but start and become an impact player.

All four most likely will be gone when the Browns go on the clock next Thursday in day one of the truncated lottery. Their only hope is if a couple of teams ahead of them develop severe brain cramps and make an odd selection.

The Cincinnati Bengals, selecting at No. 4, quite probably will take wide receiver A.J. Green, who would look great in a Cleveland uniform and provide immediate help to a sickly offense. Bitter pill for Browns fans to ingest.

Cornerback Patrick Peterson, arguably the best athlete in the draft, won’t be there at No. 6. Look for the Denver Broncos to snap him up at No. 2. But if the Broncos pass on Peterson, the Arizona Cardinals won’t three picks later.

Outside linebacker Von Miller, the best pass rusher in this draft class, probably won’t get past Buffalo at No. 3. And it would also be shocking if the best defensive lineman, tackle Marcell Dareus, is still on the board at No. 6. The Browns need help along the defensive line in a serious way, but so do the Broncos.

So there you have it. The four best players. Gone. There sit the Browns in prayer mode. With their fingers crossed. And unless the Cardinals opt for a quarterback, say Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, Heckert will be forced to make a command decision.

* Not draft wide receiver Julio Jones (drops too many passes), defensive ends Robert Quinn (didn’t play at all last season), and Da’Quan Bowers (injury history) or defensive tackle Nick Fairley (another Gerard Warren?). If I’m picking sixth overall, I want the best player at his position. And by taking the aforementioned trio, I’m settling for second-best.

* Look for a trading partner and move down in the first round because I can get a very good player several slots lower and an extra draft pick. Preferably a second- or third-rounder. Not too low, mind you. Say around 11 or 12. If Gabbert and Auburn’s Cam Newton are gone, Minnesota at No. 12 might try to move up because they need a quarterback. Then I’d go after the best offensive tackle on the board because the right side of my offensive line needs help in a far out way.

* Welcome the suggestions of Mike Holmgren, but remind him that I’m pretty good at this drafting thing and I’d appreciate it if he kept most of his opinions to himself unless a quarterback is involved in the discussion.

* Look for that wide receiver I didn’t get in the first round (unless I get real lucky and Green falls to us) on the second day. A guy like Leonard Hankerson would look good. Had a pretty good game against Ohio State last season. Nice size, good speed and he catches most everything thrown his way.

* Wait until the middle rounds to go after the pass rushers Dick Jauron needs for his 4-3 scheme. I discovered Trent Cole in 2005 for Philadelphia in round five. If I could do it there, I can do it with the Browns. The hidden gems are out there. I love digging for and then unearthing them.

* Not be satisfied with the secondary and look for some help for T. J. Ward and Joe Haden. Hopefully, I can get lucky two years in a row. There should be some good secondary guys there on day three of the draft.

* Expect to come out of this year’s draft with as many starters as last season. And if Montario Hardesty and Shaun Lauvao can stay healthy, that number climbs to five. If we get lucky and come up with four or five more starters this year, I won’t have to curse our coach for not losing enough games. We’ll be good enough to drop at least into the middle of the pack. And for the Browns, that’s a giant leap forward.

Quadrant quandary

Breaking down the Browns’ schedule for 2011 . . . should it ever be played.

It’s really very simple. The best way to look at it is in quadrants.

For example, the Browns play three of their first four games at home, a trip to Indianapolis in week two breaking up home visits from Cincinnati, Miami and Tennessee.

The second quarter of the season has the Browns playing three of their next four games on the road following the bye week in week 5. This will prove the most torturous four-game stretch (from a travel standpoint) with trips to Oakland and San Francisco sandwiched around a visit in week 7 by Seattle. It concludes with a trip to Houston in week 9.

The third set of four games brings the Browns back home for three against St. Louis, Jacksonville and Baltimore broken up by a trip to Cincinnati to face the Bengals in week 12.

Then it’s back on the road again to wrap up the season with three straight games in Pittsburgh (a Thursday night affair on Dec. 8), Arizona and Baltimore before winding up the season at home on New Year’s Day against the Steelers.

Unlike last season, when the Browns traveled outside the Eastern Time zone just once (New Orleans), three of their eight journeys this season are out west with stops in San Francisco, Oakland and Arizona.

West Coast trips are difficult enough on football teams because of the time change, but when two of them (Oakland and San Francisco) are just a couple of weeks apart, that very well could have a telling physical effect on the Browns.

They knew they would have to make at least two trips west, but never figured on something like this. It appears as though someone in the National Football League scheduling department does not like Cleveland.

After opening the season again at home (for the 12th time in 13 seasons since the return in 1999) against Cincinnati, the Browns do not meet another AFC North opponent until week 12 when they return the favor and travel to Cincinnati.

In fact, five of their last six games are against division opponents. Only the trip to Glendale, Ariz., to play the Cardinals in week 15 breaks up the AFC North scheduling. The NFL wanted division games down the homestretch, but this is ridiculous.

It’s way too early to start making predictions on the Browns’ season, although it’s always a lot of fun – and very tempting – to do so. Too many variables with which to deal. Like who’s going to be on the roster? And whom are they going to draft?

And the most important variable. Is there really going to be a 2011 season?

If there is, it’s best to break it down into the aforementioned quadrants for the Browns. Separate them and use them as a guide to how the club performs.

It wouldn’t be surprising if coach Pat Shurmur does it that way. You know the routine. Treat games 1, 5, 9 and 13 as though they are the first games of a series. Wipe the slate clean after games 4, 8 and 12.

Crazy? You bet. But coaches always look for psychological ways to climb into their players’ heads. Why not this way? What does Shurmur have to lose?

Don't answer. Rhetorical question.

Someone please pinch me

What in the world has happened to the Indians? And why has it happened?

First place in the American League Central Division 14 games into the season? Am I dreaming? Is this the same team that broke camp less than two weeks ago with question marks in abundance?

Lots of questions, to be sure. Some of the answers are obvious. Like good pitching and clutch hitting equals lots of victories. Throw in some solid defense and you have the prescription for such a start.

Problem is no one saw it coming. And even if it doesn’t last, it sure feels nice to experience a winning feeling for at least a little while.

While this topsy-turvy beginning – the Tribe and Kansas City sharing the top spot in the division!! – could very well evolve into a just another wasted season by the lakefront, at least it has grabbed the attention of the baseball world.

Who figured the Flying Cabreras in the middle of the infield would produce with their bats (25 runs batted in) and gloves (only one error)? Asdrubal at shortstop and Orlando at second base have been nothing short of sensational thus far.

And what in the world has happened to Matt LaPorta? The first baseman actually shows signs of being the player the Indians thought they got in the C.C. Sabathia trade with Milwaukee a few years ago.

Now throw in the apparent rejuvenation of designated hitter Travis Hafner and the surprising leadoff hitting of center fielder Michael Brantley. Where in the world did all this come from?

When the Indians broke camp in Goodyear, Ariz., they looked like a team headed for mediocrity. Very little clutch hitting, below-average starting pitching, an iffy bullpen and a suspect defense.

The encouraging part of this whole scenario is the Indians are doing it without the contributions of Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Santana and Grady Sizemore, their best hitters. Choo and Santana are buried deep in offensive slumber, although Choo appears to be coming around. And Sizemore, who played his first game Sunday, is still a question mark.

But it’s the pitching that has surprised everyone. After being hammered for 23 runs by the Chicago White Sox in the first two games of the season, Indians pitching has surrendered just 24 runs in the last 12.

After giving up 147 home runs last season, Cleveland pitchers so far this season have limited the opposition to a measly 10 round trippers. The opposition has hit just .216 against the staff.

Starters Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin, Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot have been nothing short of spectacular. It’ll be interesting to see who comes up from Columbus to replace Talbot, who went on the disabled list Sunday.

Even more spectacular has been the bullpen. Closer Chris Perez and setup men Tony Sipp, Raffy Perez and Vinnie Pestano have been solid. Combined, they have allowed just one earned run in 24 innings. If that continues, there’s no telling what will unfold this season.

Defensively, the Indians have made just six errors and average two double plays a game. Two of those errors were committed by Tomlin, a pitcher. Asdrubal Cabrera, third baseman Jack Hannahan and LaPorta committed the only infield miscues.

When seeking out formulas for winning games, pitching and defense head the list. And with the numbers the Indians are producing in those vital areas, it’s no wonder they sit atop the Central Division.

Now all they have to do is play at or near those numbers for the next 148 games and a lot of Cleveland sports fans just might put the National Football League’s labor problems on the backburner.

(All stats are prior to Sunday’s game against Baltimore.)

Smoke in the mirror

The more you hear regarding the National Football League’s college draft later this month, the more you should ignore.

Veteran observers who zealously follow the annual lottery know most of what comes out of the 32 war rooms prior to the selections is nothing more than smoke and mirrors. Believe it and you’re fooling only yourself.

It’s a game all the teams play. No one knows for certain why. Perhaps it’s because the cloak-and-dagger approach gives them a thrill. Then again, the paranoid minds that dot the NFL landscape are perfect fodder for such behavior.

One would think that after all these years, this kind of pre-draft nonsense would at least slow down to the point where it would be considered silly. But as along as some take it seriously, it will continue.

It all feeds perfectly into the NFL public relations machine that whirs along on a 365-day rotation. If it gets people talking and thinking NFL, why not? That’s what the league is all about.

And given that the league’s PR image is taking a beating what with the labor unrest and uncertainty about whether they’ll be a 2011 season, perhaps the blathering that leads up to the draft isn’t so bad after all. At least from the league’s point of view.

It is interesting to watch the hundreds of draft gurus (at least it seems as though there are that many) taking stabs at predicting what will happen April 28-30. Some are already on their eighth version. And we still have about two weeks left.

There are so many possibilities regarding the top 10 picks. And with the Browns picking sixth, many of their fans hang on what some of those gurus are predicting. Actually take them seriously. Only problem is these so-called experts can’t seem to make up their minds.

One week, it’s Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green to the Browns. Wait a minute. Cincinnati will take Green. Make that Clemson defensive end Da’Quan Bowers. What’s that? Bowers will be gone, too?

In that case, it’ll be either Alabama wideout Julio Jones (then again maybe not because he drops too many passes – shades of Braylon Edwards) or North Carolina defensive end Robert Quinn (then again maybe not because he missed the entire 2010 season because of an NCAA violation and he might be rusty).

But what if quarterbacks Cam Newton and/or Blaine Gabbert drop to No. 6? Then what? Didn’t Browns President Mike Holmgren indicate the club would select a quarterback? Sure did. But in the first round?

Smoke and mirrors.

Cleveland General Manager Tom Heckert Jr. obviously knows how to play the game, too. Asked recently if he’ll take the best available player or place a greater emphasis on need, he replied, “ . . . we’re going to take the best available player. If you have two players rated the same, then you can go with need.”

It appears as though he’s getting better with the non-answer because the two greatest needs he has are wide receiver and defensive line. And the top half of the first round draft is loaded with good receivers and defensive linemen.

What about the possibility of trading out of the sixth slot? “Right now,” Heckert said, “we’re going through different scenarios. If we trade up, whom do we trade up for? If we trade back, whom can we still get? Those are the things we’re pretty much thinking of.”

In other words, try to guess what I’m going to do because I have no idea.

Fun and games. And we still have almost two more weeks of it.

Scar tissue

How serious are National Football League owners as they battle the players for power? If their attendance at court-ordered mediation in Minneapolis Thursday is any indication, not serious at all is the operative answer.

There are 32 owners in the NFL and only four answered “present” when the two sides met in an effort to stop the silliness that has resulted in a lockout. Showing league pride for the billionaires were owners from Carolina, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and New England.

That’s it. Everyone else (a) was too busy, (b) out of the country, (c) couldn’t care less or (d) all of the above. Judging from the meager attendance, (c) seems to be the front-runner. It certainly appears the owners don’t give a rat’s behind how long it takes to get this labor action resolved.

Wonder where Randy Lerner was. Probably stressing over his Aston Villa soccer team. Figures. When it comes to league matters, the Browns owner seems to cower behind the league’s movers and shakers.

The disdain the owners show now toward the players is more than palpable. It has become quite apparent they have dug in their heels and will not accept a Collective Bargaining Agreement as player friendly as the last time.

When Buffalo owner Ralph Wilson and Pittsburgh boss Dan Rooney objected strenuously to the last CBA, they were laughed at and ignored. That’s not going to happen this time.

In the last CBA, Paul Tagliabue was the NFL commissioner and Gene Upshaw headed the NFL Players Association. At the time, it was suggested that Tagliabue and Upshaw colluded to maintain labor peace just for the purpose of maintaining labor peace.

It was a convenience of sorts since Tagliabue did not want to exit as commissioner with a stain (lockout/strike) on his reputation and persuaded the owners to accept what turned out to be a bad deal.

That’s one of the popular theories that emerged from the last CBA agreement and no one has refuted it. However, the staunch stand the owners have taken now is a broad indication that was exactly the case.

If the owners continue to scornfully thumb their noses at the players and the players continue to engage in name-calling, the courts can order all the mediation they want. It will all be futile.

It looks as though the kissing and hugging and saying “we didn’t mean anything personal” conclusion to this mess is a lot farther into the future than some people thought. It very well could reach many more bitter stages before a resolution, leaving scars that might not heal for a very long time.